South American Leagues · resolved market
EC Bahia vs. Fluminense FC: O/U 1.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xe2f8c2dd2e3c6ef64c481bba42c897f25ebbf1a70d21ab10e4d58b6e2630987a
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- South American Leaguesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $8,966
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $10,792
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $8,966 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 39 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in South American Leagues is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in South American Leagues | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4133…5e70backed Under | 30c | 1,617$490 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$490.19 | 1,985 | 44.8%890 W · 1,095 L | -44.4wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5a22…c3b5backed Under | 23c | 1,157$261 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$261.2 | 20 | 30%6 W · 14 L | -2.2wins | -0.11per pick | 41cpaid | -45.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x832c…c46ebacked Over | 72c | 830.74$598 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$232.61 | 36 | 36.1%13 W · 23 L | -0.8wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -13.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2dad…a040backed Over | 72c | 649.99$471 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$179 | 100 | 69%69 W · 31 L | +6.6wins | +0.07per pick | 62cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xed07…886abacked Over | 61c | 500$305 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$195 | 19 | 63.2%12 W · 7 L | +0.9wins | +0.05per pick | 58cpaid | +11.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd6c5…0d72backed Under | 34c | 307.58$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105.48 | 18 | 33.3%6 W · 12 L | -1.8wins | -0.10per pick | 44cpaid | -31.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 32c | 293.6$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93.25 | 8,107 | 48.7%3,948 W · 4,159 L | +26.8wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8c0d…b612backed Over | 72c | 280.56$202 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.56 | 166 | 56%93 W · 73 L | -5.8wins | -0.04per pick | 60cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9075…cfe8backed Over | 64c | 169.83$109 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.14 | 493 | 41%202 W · 291 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbe3c…a835backed Over | 57c | 150$85 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65 | 146 | 54.1%79 W · 67 L | +5.1wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +8.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x98e9…8dbebacked Over | 72c | 137.03$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.37 | 86 | 48.8%42 W · 44 L | +1.6wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked Under | 28c | 131.58$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.67 | 3,405 | 51.3%1,748 W · 1,657 L | +21.3wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb1ef…9fadbacked Over | 72c | 131.35$95 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.78 | 123 | 54.5%67 W · 56 L | -2.5wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Over | 76c | 131.12$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.4 | 5,757 | 45.4%2,611 W · 3,146 L | +94.0wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe43c…ccd5backed Over | 71c | 124.03$88 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.97 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a3…9489backed Under | 34c | 119.38$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.02 | 494 | 49%242 W · 252 L | +22.2wins | +0.04per pick | 44cpaid | +8.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x649a…02afbacked Over | 79c | 102.94$81 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.7 | 29 | 62.1%18 W · 11 L | -2.2wins | -0.08per pick | 70cpaid | -13%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf497…5ce0backed Over | 73c | 91.78$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.78 | 449 | 39.2%176 W · 273 L | -7.4wins | -0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa4bd…e8a2backed Over | 76c | 90$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.3 | 373 | 55.2%206 W · 167 L | +7.5wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2344…6ba3backed Under | 26c | 88.98$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.35 | 59 | 40.7%24 W · 35 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf5f2…d72dbacked Over | 51c | 78.43$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.43 | 72 | 36.1%26 W · 46 L | -3.7wins | -0.05per pick | 41cpaid | -22.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x418b…a741backed Over | 64c | 78.13$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.13 | 359 | 58.8%211 W · 148 L | -6.7wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd4d1…086ebacked Under | 38c | 65.79$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.07per pick | 57cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6f6f…5a01backed Over | 79c | 61.93$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.95 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.22per pick | 78cpaid | +28.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x99df…b59abacked Under | 29c | 50$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.5 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.1wins | -0.28per pick | 53cpaid | -67.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xffac…d469backed Over | 65c | 45.05$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.77 | 100 | 55%55 W · 45 L | +5.6wins | +0.06per pick | 49cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9794…32c9backed Under | 29c | 42.6$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.35 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +2.0wins | +0.25per pick | 50cpaid | +51.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9317…6e69backed Under | 29c | 41.52$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.04 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.5wins | +0.08per pick | 49cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfacd…d470backed Over | 72c | 40$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.2 | 50 | 76%38 W · 12 L | +3.5wins | +0.07per pick | 69cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8bf1…796ebacked Under | 29c | 39.91$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.57 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.5wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | +38.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x12f9…74babacked Over | 77c | 37.08$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.56 | 19 | 78.9%15 W · 4 L | +4.2wins | +0.22per pick | 57cpaid | +74.9%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x8e52…2320backed Over | 77c | 35.87$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.25 | 64 | 68.8%44 W · 20 L | +8.7wins | +0.14per pick | 55cpaid | +38.4%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x49ca…5944backed Over | 72c | 34.72$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.72 | 77 | 63.6%49 W · 28 L | -1.3wins | -0.02per pick | 65cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x57d5…0bbdbacked Over | 64c | 34.63$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.46 | 102 | 36.3%37 W · 65 L | -7.5wins | -0.07per pick | 44cpaid | -33.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1036…fb48backed Over | 73c | 20.55$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.55 | 29 | 51.7%15 W · 14 L | -1.3wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -16.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc101…98edbacked Over | 65c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7 | 14 | 64.3%9 W · 5 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 64cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x44c9…2bd8backed Over | 75c | 19.62$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.95 | 42 | 38.1%16 W · 26 L | -8.1wins | -0.19per pick | 57cpaid | -36.9%equal weight | 37-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x492f…bc51backed Over | 70c | 18.57$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.57 | 8 | 87.5%7 W · 1 L | +1.3wins | +0.17per pick | 71cpaid | +24%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd834…cc5bbacked Over | 72c | 14.26$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.99 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.05per pick | 71cpaid | -8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in South American Leagues and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- EC Bahia vs. Fluminense FC: O/U 1.5this page
- EC Bahia vs. Fluminense FC: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
- EC Bahia vs. Fluminense FC: O/U 2.5Under won
- EC Bahia vs. Fluminense FC: O/U 3.5Under won
- EC Bahia vs. Fluminense FC: O/U 4.5Under won
- Spread: EC Bahia (-1.5)Fluminense FC won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.