Ncaa Basketball · resolved market
NCAAB: Houston Cougars vs. Duke Blue Devils 2024-03-29
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xe306353eaba02a61ab0cad6711173396284b29d48342a07ebb7b026778568aea
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Dukeof Houston, Duke
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Ncaa Basketballevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $2,288
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $2,288
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $2,288 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 7 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Ncaa Basketball is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Ncaa Basketball | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xa14b…b944backed Houston | 66c | 750$493 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$492.5 | 39 | 43.6%17 W · 22 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -27.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9d84…1344backed Houston | 4c | 317.57$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.96 | 24 | 12.5%3 W · 21 L | -4.6wins | -0.19per pick | 31cpaid | -68.4%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x8b3e…662cbacked Houston | 64c | 220$141 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$140.8 | 14 | 21.4%3 W · 11 L | -2.1wins | -0.15per pick | 36cpaid | -47.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdd8e…f023backed Houston | 64c | 200$128 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$128 | 30 | 50%15 W · 15 L | +1.3wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +27.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4cc3…7552backed Duke | 36c | 200$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$128 | 45 | 42.2%19 W · 26 L | -3.1wins | -0.07per pick | 49cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2137…0677backed Duke | 36c | 172.97$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$110.7 | 70 | 21.4%15 W · 55 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 20cpaid | -39%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x39a2…a50dbacked Duke | 37c | 67.57$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.57 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +1.1wins | +0.13per pick | 49cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Ncaa Basketball and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- NCAAB: Houston Cougars vs. Duke Blue Devils 2024-03-29this page
- NCAAB: Arizona Wildcats vs. Clemson Tigers 2024-03-28Clemson won
- NCAAB: Iowa State Cyclones vs. Illinois Fighting Illini 2024-03-28 Illinois won
- NCAAB: Marquette Golden Eagles vs. NC State Wolfpack 2024-03-29NC St. won
- NCAAB: North Carolina Tar Heels vs. Alabama Crimson Tide 2024-03-28Alabama won
- NCAAB: Purdue Boilermakers vs. Gonzaga Bulldogs 2024-03-29Purdue won
- NCAAB: Tennessee Volunteers vs. Creighton Blue Jays 2024-03-29Tennessee won
- NCAAB: UConn Huskies vs. San Diego State Aztecs 2024-03-28UConn won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.