Ncaa Basketball · resolved market
NCAAB: Iowa State Cyclones vs. Illinois Fighting Illini 2024-03-28
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x93cc76fa1b2c526e139acafebb402bc45b02391d5c5c4a1d51cca67fa7f5014b
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Illinoisof ISU, Illinois
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Ncaa Basketballevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $35,854
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $30,918
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $35,854 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 14 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Ncaa Basketball is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Ncaa Basketball | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xd42f…047dbacked ISU | 14c | 13,920$1,968 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,967.73 | 32 | 15.6%5 W · 27 L | -4.3wins | -0.13per pick | 29cpaid | -52.8%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xf86d…e314backed Illinois | 49c | 10,204$5,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,204.08 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +1.2wins | +0.39per pick | 28cpaid | +86.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xaaf4…7883backed Illinois | 49c | 5,379$2,636 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,743.29 | 22 | 40.9%9 W · 13 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -17%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4cc3…7552backed ISU | 51c | 5,000$2,550 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,550 | 45 | 42.2%19 W · 26 L | -3.1wins | -0.07per pick | 49cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6356…1885backed ISU | 51c | 4,190$2,137 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,137.09 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | -0.7wins | -0.07per pick | 52cpaid | -26.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7789…f823backed ISU | 51c | 3,500$1,785 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,785 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +19.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4c03…0cc1backed ISU | 51c | 2,000$1,020 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,020 | 136 | 9.6%13 W · 123 L | -8.1wins | -0.06per pick | 16cpaid | -78.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xecdb…da79backed ISU | 51c | 1,910$974 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$974.11 | 16 | 25%4 W · 12 L | -1.9wins | -0.12per pick | 37cpaid | -25.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6b7e…4562backed ISU | 51c | 1,147$585 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$584.88 | 12 | 16.7%2 W · 10 L | -3.2wins | -0.26per pick | 43cpaid | -60.8%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x9d84…1344backed ISU | 38c | 1,000$383 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$382.75 | 24 | 12.5%3 W · 21 L | -4.6wins | -0.19per pick | 31cpaid | -68.4%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x2137…0677backed ISU | 51c | 1,000$510 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$510 | 70 | 21.4%15 W · 55 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 20cpaid | -39%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8b3e…662cbacked ISU | 52c | 300$156 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$156 | 14 | 21.4%3 W · 11 L | -2.1wins | -0.15per pick | 36cpaid | -47.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbdd1…0c4fbacked Illinois | 70c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.1 | 36 | 19.4%7 W · 29 L | -1.1wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcf0f…7e6dbacked Illinois | 50c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | 0%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Ncaa Basketball and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- NCAAB: Iowa State Cyclones vs. Illinois Fighting Illini 2024-03-28 this page
- NCAAB: Arizona Wildcats vs. Clemson Tigers 2024-03-28Clemson won
- NCAAB: Houston Cougars vs. Duke Blue Devils 2024-03-29Duke won
- NCAAB: Marquette Golden Eagles vs. NC State Wolfpack 2024-03-29NC St. won
- NCAAB: North Carolina Tar Heels vs. Alabama Crimson Tide 2024-03-28Alabama won
- NCAAB: Purdue Boilermakers vs. Gonzaga Bulldogs 2024-03-29Purdue won
- NCAAB: Tennessee Volunteers vs. Creighton Blue Jays 2024-03-29Tennessee won
- NCAAB: UConn Huskies vs. San Diego State Aztecs 2024-03-28UConn won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.