MLB · resolved market
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Minnesota Twins: O/U 9.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xe33e6d652e5face7cf21ca6ec75eef93cb5bfc68e2357d65445a998cf3e3dff5
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $19,788
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $19,783
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $19,788 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 26 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xdd4d…3ac6backed Under | 3c | 7,011$210 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$210.34 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.7wins | +0.18per pick | 7cpaid | +261.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Under | 24c | 2,055$492 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$492.27 | 8,086 | 46.1%3,728 W · 4,358 L | +29.9wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Over | 41c | 1,261$515 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$745.86 | 11,357 | 52.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L | +209.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x228b…af4cbacked Over | 79c | 1,066$844 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$221.11 | 2,012 | 51.2%1,031 W · 981 L | +43.6wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb64f…c3a9backed Over | 79c | 799.9$636 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$163.98 | 162 | 53.1%86 W · 76 L | +8.4wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +11.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Over | 20c | 679$138 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$541.28 | 8,295 | 47.8%3,966 W · 4,329 L | +72.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked Under | 8c | 574.01$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.32 | 707 | 37.6%266 W · 441 L | +24.5wins | +0.03per pick | 34cpaid | +15.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbca0…9705backed Under | 27c | 557.16$148 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$147.95 | 8,470 | 52.6%4,459 W · 4,011 L | +510.0wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 27c | 416.08$112 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$112.48 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4f29…7a7ebacked Under | 74c | 167.94$124 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$124.13 | 2,969 | 48.4%1,436 W · 1,533 L | -5.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x066f…b576backed Over | 37c | 148.66$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$93.66 | 3,832 | 42.2%1,619 W · 2,213 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x47c9…2038backed Under | 55c | 109.04$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.92 | 474 | 46.6%221 W · 253 L | +26.0wins | +0.05per pick | 41cpaid | +13%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x43ed…6232backed Over | 31c | 96.73$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.16 | 182 | 44.5%81 W · 101 L | -14.3wins | -0.08per pick | 52cpaid | -21.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8526…72aabacked Under | 64c | 95.44$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.5 | 380 | 53.2%202 W · 178 L | +4.1wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2ca2…1798backed Under | 63c | 89$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.07 | 99 | 60.6%60 W · 39 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 60cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0fde…0258backed Under | 33c | 86.55$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.56 | 780 | 52.2%407 W · 373 L | +22.2wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8c58…e330backed Under | 66c | 73.73$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49 | 880 | 53.8%473 W · 407 L | +41.0wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8d0c…c90abacked Over | 37c | 65$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41 | 2,376 | 49.7%1,182 W · 1,194 L | +17.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x003f…3805backed Under | 57c | 61.98$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.4 | 56 | 44.6%25 W · 31 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8afa…28f0backed Under | 55c | 60.41$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.23 | 625 | 54.2%339 W · 286 L | +23.8wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed Under | 50c | 54.14$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.91 | 4,478 | 48.8%2,186 W · 2,292 L | -47.7wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x95f5…779fbacked Under | 41c | 49.99$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.61 | 1,056 | 44.3%468 W · 588 L | -25.9wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe5cf…7b4cbacked Under | 63c | 31.75$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 83 | 51.8%43 W · 40 L | -8.9wins | -0.11per pick | 63cpaid | -20.3%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x3ca9…424abacked Over | 52c | 30.01$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.27 | 799 | 55.9%447 W · 352 L | +21.7wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Over | 48c | 27.55$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.27 | 9,728 | 46.3%4,506 W · 5,222 L | +32.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8935…7daabacked Over | 49c | 23$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.81 | 873 | 70.1%612 W · 261 L | +91.6wins | +0.10per pick | 60cpaid | +14.5%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Philadelphia Phillies vs. Minnesota Twins: O/U 9.5this page
- Philadelphia Phillies vs. Minnesota TwinsPhiladelphia Phillies won
- Philadelphia Phillies vs. Minnesota Twins: O/U 5.5Over won
- Philadelphia Phillies vs. Minnesota Twins: O/U 7.5Over won
- Philadelphia Phillies vs. Minnesota Twins: O/U 8.5Over won
- Spread: Minnesota Twins (-1.5)Philadelphia Phillies won
- Spread: Minnesota Twins (-2.5)Philadelphia Phillies won
- Spread: Philadelphia Phillies (-1.5)Philadelphia Phillies won
- Spread: Philadelphia Phillies (-2.5)Philadelphia Phillies won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.