Tennis · resolved market
Will Lorenzo Musetti win the 2025 Chengdu Open?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xe3408a154a1f8616bef7df9c78c3c095fd9dc3309f5e51de9c5d9579037211f4
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $10,059
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $10,226
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $10,059 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 20 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tennis | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x8406…0176backed Yes | 79c | 2,155$1,694 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,693.87 | 106 | 54.7%58 W · 48 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 56cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2129…4222backed No | 27c | 1,010$268 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$741.89 | 652 | 42.8%279 W · 373 L | +9.3wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaeb5…58e2backed Yes | 74c | 482$359 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$358.72 | 819 | 38.9%319 W · 500 L | -4.5wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe542…0a37backed No | 64c | 388.09$250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$138.06 | 227 | 23.8%54 W · 173 L | +5.1wins | +0.02per pick | 22cpaid | -35.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd49b…abffbacked No | 32c | 370.3$117 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$253.3 | 69 | 21.7%15 W · 54 L | -7.6wins | -0.11per pick | 33cpaid | -46.7%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xcb11…e93fbacked Yes | 69c | 335$231 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$231.1 | 31 | 54.8%17 W · 14 L | +0.9wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7f83…a491backed Yes | 59c | 295$175 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$174.88 | 257 | 43.6%112 W · 145 L | +2.2wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x36bf…2864backed Yes | 42c | 240$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 444 | 23.9%106 W · 338 L | -5.5wins | -0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd45b…933ebacked Yes | 79c | 202.53$160 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$160 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.79per pick | 79cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed No | 21c | 200$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$158 | 6,720 | 36.9%2,479 W · 4,241 L | -95.8wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -20.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x141c…7154backed No | 11c | 168.54$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$150 | 61 | 36.1%22 W · 39 L | +5.3wins | +0.09per pick | 27cpaid | +30.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x168a…da29backed No | 58c | 164.07$96 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.5 | 88 | 54.5%48 W · 40 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb41c…2f0dbacked Yes | 36c | 100$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36 | 66 | 53%35 W · 31 L | -4.8wins | -0.07per pick | 60cpaid | -18.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa21d…a769backed Yes | 79c | 94.85$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.93 | 63 | 58.7%37 W · 26 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1039…5a40backed Yes | 70c | 90.22$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.70per pick | 70cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x74e6…99e8backed Yes | 72c | 89.99$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.79 | 80 | 61.3%49 W · 31 L | +5.5wins | +0.07per pick | 54cpaid | +12.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8cb7…04d8backed Yes | 35c | 71.42$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 141 | 40.4%57 W · 84 L | -2.9wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -25.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xce3f…67c9backed Yes | 35c | 50$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.5 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -0.7wins | -0.09per pick | 46cpaid | -30.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaab0…126ebacked No | 28c | 40.14$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.9 | 70 | 67.1%47 W · 23 L | +3.9wins | +0.06per pick | 62cpaid | +9.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5998…141cbacked Yes | 62c | 32.26$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 36 | 63.9%23 W · 13 L | +4.9wins | +0.14per pick | 50cpaid | +29.2%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 2 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Lorenzo Musetti win the 2025 Chengdu Open?this page
- Will Alejandro Tabilo win the 2025 Chengdu Open?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.