Tennis · resolved market
Set 1 Winner: Griekspoor vs Arnaldi
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xe38a1360bb252b89944b93b14019f94f76aa7af57eea38312b0bf2e90f158853
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Griekspoorof Griekspoor, Arnaldi
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $5,282
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $6,210
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $5,282 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 17 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tennis | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xdeff…78f8backed Griekspoor | 50c | 636.71$322 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$315.19 | 436 | 47.2%206 W · 230 L | -3.9wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +53.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0c99…0c88backed Griekspoor | 31c | 500.32$155 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$345.45 | 9,286 | 44.3%4,110 W · 5,176 L | -245.7wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Arnaldi | 69c | 487.52$336 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$336.39 | 7,816 | 50.6%3,958 W · 3,858 L | +95.4wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1fe4…d0f1backed Arnaldi | 53c | 324.8$173 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$172.89 | 71 | 57.7%41 W · 30 L | +2.5wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc249…8a61backed Arnaldi | 49c | 321.71$158 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$157.64 | 671 | 44.7%300 W · 371 L | +30.7wins | +0.05per pick | 40cpaid | +13.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x03c7…22f2backed Griekspoor | 48c | 208.55$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$108.55 | 542 | 49.3%267 W · 275 L | -17.1wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7547…d158backed Arnaldi | 51c | 178.16$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91 | 7,049 | 39.7%2,795 W · 4,254 L | -20.5wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed Arnaldi | 50c | 125$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.5 | 7,139 | 49.7%3,548 W · 3,591 L | +109.9wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5b62…d87fbacked Griekspoor | 46c | 96.47$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.1 | 1,510 | 37.7%569 W · 941 L | +24.5wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9888…e6febacked Arnaldi | 68c | 86.17$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.99 | 2,447 | 45.9%1,123 W · 1,324 L | -12.9wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc457…c88fbacked Arnaldi | 62c | 80.65$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 38 | 57.9%22 W · 16 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5bda…17a8backed Griekspoor | 47c | 70$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.1 | 1,151 | 48.7%560 W · 591 L | +8.8wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x31d6…b5c9backed Griekspoor | 32c | 61.16$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.59 | 50 | 42%21 W · 29 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | +15.7%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xff34…694bbacked Griekspoor | 31c | 50$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.5 | 2,761 | 53.9%1,487 W · 1,274 L | +73.8wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5210…bd53backed Arnaldi | 50c | 25$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.5 | 3,874 | 45.4%1,758 W · 2,116 L | -39.6wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1f76…833abacked Griekspoor | 47c | 25$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.25 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.53per pick | 47cpaid | +112.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6e25…db26backed Griekspoor | 50c | 24.16$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.16 | 825 | 60.5%499 W · 326 L | -11.2wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Set 1 Winner: Griekspoor vs Arnaldithis page
- Griekspoor vs. Arnaldi: Match O/U 36.5Over won
- Griekspoor vs. Arnaldi: Match O/U 38.5Over won
- Griekspoor vs. Arnaldi: Match O/U 40.5Over won
- Roland Garros ATP: Tallon Griekspoor vs Matteo ArnaldiMatteo Arnaldi won
- Set Handicap: Arnaldi (-1.5) vs Griekspoor (+1.5)Arnaldi won
- Tallon Griekspoor vs. Matteo Arnaldi: Total Sets O/U 3.5Over 3.5 won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.