Tennis · resolved market
Tallon Griekspoor vs. Matteo Arnaldi: Total Sets O/U 3.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x1edb3e5a85d7fb4b71450a72beccbe1515b5b7ca4f1a50a27825830a3b360cb8
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Over 3.5of Over 3.5, Under 3.5
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $65,729
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $97,550
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $65,729 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 45 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tennis | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x03f8…d85abacked Over 3.5 | 70c | 24,366$17,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7,365.59 | 55 | 54.5%30 W · 25 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9c76…c926backed Under 3.5 | 30c | 21,958$6,587 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$6,587.48 | 4,076 | 39.7%1,620 W · 2,456 L | +93.7wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4d23…fcdfbacked Over 3.5 | 70c | 3,137$2,196 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$940.96 | 22 | 63.6%14 W · 8 L | +1.6wins | +0.07per pick | 57cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc34b…9296backed Under 3.5 | 31c | 1,843$571 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$571.24 | 423 | 41.4%175 W · 248 L | +9.1wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5e2f…f9babacked Over 3.5 | 70c | 1,505$1,052 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$452.92 | 256 | 59%151 W · 105 L | +13.6wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +8.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc249…8a61backed Under 3.5 | 30c | 1,417$430 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$429.86 | 671 | 44.7%300 W · 371 L | +30.7wins | +0.05per pick | 40cpaid | +13.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa2f0…3206backed Under 3.5 | 31c | 1,160$360 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$359.6 | 30 | 36.7%11 W · 19 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | +9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd3e7…bf64backed Under 3.5 | 30c | 1,103$331 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$330.88 | 1,094 | 52.4%573 W · 521 L | -5.9wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa672…6b31backed Over 3.5 | 69c | 1,000$695 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$305.31 | 31 | 48.4%15 W · 16 L | -1.5wins | -0.05per pick | 53cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5b62…d87fbacked Under 3.5 | 31c | 1,000$313 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$313.18 | 1,510 | 37.7%569 W · 941 L | +24.5wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4a3f…4333backed Under 3.5 | 31c | 964.71$299 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$299.06 | 437 | 43.7%191 W · 246 L | +15.8wins | +0.04per pick | 40cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7547…d158backed Under 3.5 | 32c | 554$180 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$180.01 | 7,049 | 39.7%2,795 W · 4,254 L | -20.5wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf93d…fc9bbacked Over 3.5 | 67c | 539.2$362 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$177.2 | 223 | 52%116 W · 107 L | -1.7wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa877…2e20backed Under 3.5 | 31c | 483.99$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150.04 | 810 | 47.9%388 W · 422 L | +30.1wins | +0.04per pick | 44cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x73a2…3b68backed Over 3.5 | 70c | 478.87$336 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$143.16 | 263 | 49%129 W · 134 L | -8.9wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed Under 3.5 | 30c | 411.98$124 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$123.6 | 7,139 | 49.7%3,548 W · 3,591 L | +109.9wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa6a7…e5d4backed Under 3.5 | 35c | 371.76$129 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$129.33 | 209 | 42.6%89 W · 120 L | -0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xba67…4727backed Under 3.5 | 31c | 313$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.03 | 342 | 42.4%145 W · 197 L | -3.2wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb7bf…b02dbacked Over 3.5 | 69c | 289.86$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$89.86 | 591 | 65.3%386 W · 205 L | -16.9wins | -0.03per pick | 68cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xea10…a070backed Under 3.5 | 30c | 247.25$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.18 | 268 | 49.3%132 W · 136 L | +8.8wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe3eb…d78bbacked Over 3.5 | 70c | 241.43$169 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.73 | 22 | 63.6%14 W · 8 L | +1.1wins | +0.05per pick | 59cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x87e8…5e6ebacked Over 3.5 | 65c | 220$143 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77 | 419 | 55.8%234 W · 185 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x879b…a5dfbacked Over 3.5 | 68c | 218.75$149 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.2 | 55 | 52.7%29 W · 26 L | -1.0wins | -0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xed06…3612backed Over 3.5 | 70c | 210.93$148 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.28 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +14.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x95c5…d5d3backed Under 3.5 | 34c | 147.06$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 601 | 58.6%352 W · 249 L | +2.6wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf9e2…bd26backed Over 3.5 | 71c | 119.71$84 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.28 | 34 | 67.6%23 W · 11 L | +3.7wins | +0.11per pick | 57cpaid | +17%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf9ef…20ebbacked Under 3.5 | 30c | 100$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 1,245 | 51.9%646 W · 599 L | +9.3wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f43…3a74backed Under 3.5 | 30c | 80$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 387 | 41.1%159 W · 228 L | +2.2wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcb1b…69f2backed Under 3.5 | 31c | 75$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.93 | 587 | 45.7%268 W · 319 L | -4.2wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x58e4…a569backed Over 3.5 | 70c | 68.43$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.53 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.30per pick | 70cpaid | +42.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa0c5…4291backed Under 3.5 | 32c | 55.11$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.73 | 92 | 44.6%41 W · 51 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb205…78d0backed Over 3.5 | 69c | 53.36$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.28 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.31per pick | 69cpaid | +43.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0905…e5c0backed Under 3.5 | 35c | 50$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.5 | 102 | 44.1%45 W · 57 L | -6.3wins | -0.06per pick | 50cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xad22…014abacked Under 3.5 | 30c | 47$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.1 | 64 | 43.8%28 W · 36 L | +3.6wins | +0.06per pick | 38cpaid | +13.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xba17…5c67backed Under 3.5 | 30c | 46.91$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.07 | 93 | 50.5%47 W · 46 L | +3.0wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xec5a…cd56backed Over 3.5 | 48c | 44.43$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.1 | 48 | 41.7%20 W · 28 L | -2.1wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -27.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf0bb…b47ebacked Over 3.5 | 68c | 44.43$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.22 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -1.1wins | -0.22per pick | 62cpaid | -38.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa4e4…c62abacked Under 3.5 | 32c | 32.46$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.33 | 46 | 52.2%24 W · 22 L | +7.1wins | +0.15per pick | 37cpaid | +39.3%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x48e4…4d8cbacked Over 3.5 | 68c | 29.41$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.41 | 39 | 69.2%27 W · 12 L | +1.1wins | +0.03per pick | 66cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2fe6…1d65backed Over 3.5 | 70c | 27.38$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.21 | 35 | 62.9%22 W · 13 L | +2.1wins | +0.06per pick | 57cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6c78…bf00backed Over 3.5 | 70c | 24.29$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.29 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -1.0wins | -0.20per pick | 60cpaid | -41.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5019…1898backed Over 3.5 | 70c | 24.1$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.23 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.19per pick | 59cpaid | -39.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x13a6…c34dbacked Over 3.5 | 70c | 21.43$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.43 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x48fd…aca7backed Over 3.5 | 70c | 17.14$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.14 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.1wins | +0.23per pick | 57cpaid | +51.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb4a5…80d4backed Over 3.5 | 68c | 16.18$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.18 | 318 | 53.5%170 W · 148 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Tallon Griekspoor vs. Matteo Arnaldi: Total Sets O/U 3.5this page
- Griekspoor vs. Arnaldi: Match O/U 36.5Over won
- Griekspoor vs. Arnaldi: Match O/U 38.5Over won
- Griekspoor vs. Arnaldi: Match O/U 40.5Over won
- Roland Garros ATP: Tallon Griekspoor vs Matteo ArnaldiMatteo Arnaldi won
- Set 1 Winner: Griekspoor vs ArnaldiGriekspoor won
- Set Handicap: Arnaldi (-1.5) vs Griekspoor (+1.5)Arnaldi won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.