Tennis · resolved market
Set Handicap: Medvedev (-1.5) vs Kjaer (+1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xe3a4f65dbd99c95e17455c34d35f866ba2f60233eb8d6f43c90989b22e0c82d9
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Medvedevof Medvedev, Kjaer
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $8,801
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $11,000
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $8,801 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 34 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tennis | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x9c76…c926backed Kjaer | 47c | 1,473$694 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$694.5 | 4,076 | 39.7%1,620 W · 2,456 L | +93.7wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x93bc…8ca3backed Kjaer | 49c | 999.98$490 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$489.99 | 69 | 30.4%21 W · 48 L | -9.8wins | -0.14per pick | 45cpaid | -36.4%equal weight | 38-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x161b…acc2backed Medvedev | 52c | 874.98$455 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$420.48 | 16 | 50%8 W · 8 L | +0.7wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0aee…2d8cbacked Medvedev | 52c | 698.62$360 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$338.43 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 60cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf5d0…d9e8backed Kjaer | 53c | 681.64$359 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$358.62 | 154 | 47.4%73 W · 81 L | +3.2wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf6ee…0e41backed Kjaer | 48c | 509.99$247 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$246.8 | 364 | 35.2%128 W · 236 L | +8.7wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcd8c…f75abacked Medvedev | 51c | 477.53$243 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$234.91 | 327 | 63.9%209 W · 118 L | +15.6wins | +0.05per pick | 59cpaid | +11.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xad88…3c1ebacked Medvedev | 50c | 398.5$199 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$199.25 | 247 | 47.4%117 W · 130 L | -3.8wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x26fb…67b8backed Kjaer | 51c | 393.08$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200.47 | 651 | 57.1%372 W · 279 L | -6.1wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8ae3…3c15backed Medvedev | 55c | 376.08$206 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$170.21 | 683 | 50.1%342 W · 341 L | -25.5wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x246d…c74dbacked Medvedev | 52c | 358.11$184 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$173.64 | 180 | 53.9%97 W · 83 L | -4.4wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5628…abbcbacked Kjaer | 43c | 335.58$145 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$144.91 | 2,229 | 45%1,002 W · 1,227 L | +3.4wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0045…9007backed Medvedev | 51c | 319.73$163 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$156.67 | 265 | 48.7%129 W · 136 L | -2.8wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3216…0cc7backed Kjaer | 50c | 200$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 96 | 40.6%39 W · 57 L | -5.0wins | -0.05per pick | 46cpaid | -9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcbaa…59b8backed Medvedev | 51c | 170.48$87 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83.54 | 324 | 48.1%156 W · 168 L | -11.1wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc1c3…c2e6backed Medvedev | 52c | 157.79$82 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.22 | 14 | 78.6%11 W · 3 L | +3.9wins | +0.28per pick | 50cpaid | +58.7%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x188e…70d8backed Kjaer | 50c | 149.38$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.69 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -1.2wins | -0.16per pick | 53cpaid | -28.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x87e8…5e6ebacked Kjaer | 51c | 128.52$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.55 | 419 | 55.8%234 W · 185 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x43d7…1c75backed Kjaer | 49c | 100$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49 | 1,240 | 41.2%511 W · 729 L | -2.2wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa4d3…4b1fbacked Kjaer | 50c | 97$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.5 | 52 | 50%26 W · 26 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2352…4c5abacked Medvedev | 51c | 95.16$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.63 | 43 | 25.6%11 W · 32 L | -3.0wins | -0.07per pick | 33cpaid | -21%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfa23…7afabacked Medvedev | 51c | 95.16$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.63 | 52 | 51.9%27 W · 25 L | +2.5wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +23.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4b71…80ecbacked Kjaer | 50c | 87.3$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.65 | 211 | 49.8%105 W · 106 L | +9.1wins | +0.04per pick | 45cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5bda…17a8backed Kjaer | 49c | 75$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.75 | 1,151 | 48.7%560 W · 591 L | +8.8wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8a3d…316cbacked Medvedev | 48c | 63$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.76 | 1,955 | 48%939 W · 1,016 L | +16.0wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfc7e…70ecbacked Medvedev | 48c | 60$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.2 | 1,001 | 45.4%454 W · 547 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3679…b5a8backed Medvedev | 50c | 57.62$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.81 | 73 | 42.5%31 W · 42 L | -4.8wins | -0.07per pick | 49cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd3e7…bf64backed Kjaer | 47c | 50$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.5 | 1,094 | 52.4%573 W · 521 L | -5.9wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4934…cca1backed Medvedev | 49c | 49.46$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.22 | 84 | 63.1%53 W · 31 L | +6.2wins | +0.07per pick | 56cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa684…ca71backed Medvedev | 51c | 47.58$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.31 | 48 | 47.9%23 W · 25 L | -3.1wins | -0.06per pick | 54cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf5aa…4464backed Medvedev | 47c | 47.07$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.95 | 222 | 55.4%123 W · 99 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf629…38d5backed Medvedev | 55c | 36$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.2 | 41 | 73.2%30 W · 11 L | +9.1wins | +0.22per pick | 51cpaid | +42.5%equal weight | 65+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x2ce5…a07fbacked Medvedev | 80c | 19.76$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.95 | 418 | 50%209 W · 209 L | +6.0wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2903…9203backed Medvedev | 80c | 19.76$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.95 | 1,076 | 60.4%650 W · 426 L | +24.2wins | +0.02per pick | 58cpaid | +4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Set Handicap: Medvedev (-1.5) vs Kjaer (+1.5)this page
- Daniil Medvedev vs. Nicolai Budkov Kjaer: Total Sets O/U 2.5Under 2.5 won
- Madrid Open: Daniil Medvedev vs Nicolai Budkov KjaerDaniil Medvedev won
- Medvedev vs. Kjaer: Match O/U 21.5Under won
- Set 1 Winner: Medvedev vs KjaerMedvedev won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.