Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in London be between 57-58°F on May 5?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xe3de00099328c3a9981d19cd369c9458ed9c695a51a352226bc3a8dd8ef9289e
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $17,075
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $15,686
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $17,075 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 34 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xaaec…8dc8backed Yes | 10c | 1,634$156 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$156.05 | 493 | 38.9%192 W · 301 L | +49.3wins | +0.10per pick | 29cpaid | +51.9%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xd8f8…0f11backed Yes | 4c | 1,361$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.68 | 966 | 20.7%200 W · 766 L | +59.8wins | +0.06per pick | 15cpaid | +96.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa877…f204backed Yes | 11c | 954.09$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.53 | 114 | 49.1%56 W · 58 L | +17.9wins | +0.16per pick | 33cpaid | +104.3%equal weight | 64+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x9c49…8728backed Yes | 20c | 927.26$183 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$183.07 | 55 | 49.1%27 W · 28 L | +7.8wins | +0.14per pick | 35cpaid | +171%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x7ded…e4c9backed No | 74c | 788.5$580 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$208.61 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.10per pick | 57cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xacc8…7d08backed Yes | 9c | 665.4$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.16 | 602 | 35.7%215 W · 387 L | +41.3wins | +0.07per pick | 29cpaid | +37.8%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x57ee…8112backed Yes | 4c | 630$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.6 | 1,727 | 18%311 W · 1,416 L | +74.3wins | +0.04per pick | 14cpaid | +11%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0f86…404ebacked Yes | 21c | 551.39$115 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$114.85 | 259 | 47.5%123 W · 136 L | +8.5wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc0c0…c0a5backed Yes | 6c | 535.99$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.16 | 247 | 10.9%27 W · 220 L | +4.4wins | +0.02per pick | 9cpaid | +35.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf7e6…2cc5backed Yes | 12c | 500.76$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.02 | 205 | 56.1%115 W · 90 L | +25.5wins | +0.12per pick | 44cpaid | +40.2%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x8e22…3061backed Yes | 3c | 440$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.2 | 385 | 15.6%60 W · 325 L | +15.3wins | +0.04per pick | 12cpaid | +93.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7ab6…fa77backed Yes | 21c | 374.83$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.96 | 83 | 3.6%3 W · 80 L | -2.4wins | -0.03per pick | 6cpaid | -82.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf34a…1e22backed Yes | 9c | 352.22$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.76 | 76 | 11.8%9 W · 67 L | +2.0wins | +0.03per pick | 9cpaid | -39.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 6c | 335.75$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.5 | 2,119 | 36.1%764 W · 1,355 L | -12.1wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -26.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 16c | 201.11$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.9 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x133f…0792backed Yes | 37c | 150$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.5 | 89 | 36%32 W · 57 L | -2.9wins | -0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x87cd…6f2abacked No | 71c | 107.53$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.56 | 39 | 48.7%19 W · 20 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x99a1…b0c3backed No | 62c | 100.02$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.8 | 356 | 27%96 W · 260 L | +7.5wins | +0.02per pick | 25cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x53a4…b411backed Yes | 20c | 100$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 64 | 26.6%17 W · 47 L | -2.1wins | -0.03per pick | 30cpaid | -42.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9469…6d18backed No | 80c | 100$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 959 | 42.4%407 W · 552 L | +84.9wins | +0.09per pick | 34cpaid | +27.4%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x05ce…de32backed Yes | 11c | 92.74$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.2 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 25cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2165…f598backed Yes | 13c | 91.71$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.75 | 141 | 13.5%19 W · 122 L | +2.0wins | +0.01per pick | 12cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5ccc…8c7fbacked No | 61c | 82.51$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.51 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +1.2wins | +0.15per pick | 60cpaid | +16.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5093…272cbacked Yes | 21c | 75$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.75 | 727 | 26.4%192 W · 535 L | +63.8wins | +0.09per pick | 18cpaid | +47.7%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x8bac…cf49backed Yes | 43c | 71$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.45 | 1,089 | 29.7%323 W · 766 L | +36.6wins | +0.03per pick | 26cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xacb3…83a2backed Yes | 47c | 64.21$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.47per pick | 47cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3843…1ee2backed Yes | 33c | 59.81$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.68 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.33per pick | 33cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb99…8c33backed No | 63c | 57.61$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.56 | 78 | 52.6%41 W · 37 L | +5.5wins | +0.07per pick | 46cpaid | +5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd3c4…9434backed Yes | 40c | 50$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 174 | 24.1%42 W · 132 L | +6.0wins | +0.03per pick | 21cpaid | +153.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1dfa…b4e9backed Yes | 46c | 46.67$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.27 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.07per pick | 40cpaid | +30.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6297…517ebacked Yes | 33c | 40$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 1,643 | 27.8%456 W · 1,187 L | +117.6wins | +0.07per pick | 21cpaid | +33%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x73af…46e0backed Yes | 34c | 40$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.6 | 31 | 32.3%10 W · 21 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x169e…de26backed No | 67c | 36.86$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.05 | 37 | 59.5%22 W · 15 L | -2.7wins | -0.07per pick | 67cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x51b7…d820backed Yes | 36c | 29.99$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.8 | 254 | 36.6%93 W · 161 L | +5.2wins | +0.02per pick | 35cpaid | +38.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in London be between 57-58°F on May 5?this page
- Will the highest temperature in London be 52°F or below on May 5?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be between 53-54°F on May 5?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be between 55-56°F on May 5?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in London be between 59-60°F on May 5?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be between 61-62°F on May 5?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.