Fifa International · resolved market
Will Equatorial Guinea win on 2025-11-14?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xe430944bdf97ff3378c1be30d115c463dadfc4790e2cbc36477495fd9c3abc46
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Fifa Internationalevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $16,688
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $19,574
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $16,688 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 26 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Fifa International is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Fifa International | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xf00f…711abacked No | 63c | 2,847$1,789 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,788.61 | 18 | 44.4%8 W · 10 L | -2.7wins | -0.15per pick | 59cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe60a…6a47backed Yes | 37c | 2,814$1,043 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,771.14 | 300 | 31%93 W · 207 L | -5.8wins | -0.02per pick | 33cpaid | -22.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5032…d300backed Yes | 36c | 452.38$164 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$288.72 | 38 | 13.2%5 W · 33 L | -2.8wins | -0.07per pick | 20cpaid | -42%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Yes | 33c | 442.69$147 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$295.84 | 3,696 | 36.9%1,364 W · 2,332 L | -44.0wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -23.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb72b…f4e0backed No | 69c | 362.57$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250 | 71 | 35.2%25 W · 46 L | +3.1wins | +0.04per pick | 31cpaid | +16.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked No | 63c | 318.68$202 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$201.73 | 760 | 48.7%370 W · 390 L | -2.9wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc3c3…eec8backed Yes | 40c | 300.82$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$180.49 | 270 | 39.6%107 W · 163 L | -3.5wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4133…5e70backed Yes | 33c | 259.48$85 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$174.09 | 359 | 42.9%154 W · 205 L | -16.5wins | -0.05per pick | 47cpaid | -24%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbed0…3c7dbacked Yes | 39c | 259.36$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$159.36 | 164 | 42.7%70 W · 94 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfefb…4b5dbacked No | 14c | 127.92$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.47 | 237 | 38.8%92 W · 145 L | -6.8wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -30.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfa01…f0a7backed No | 64c | 100$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64 | 673 | 54.7%368 W · 305 L | -7.7wins | -0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1d94…9100backed No | 61c | 100$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61 | 465 | 36.1%168 W · 297 L | +6.3wins | +0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x56e6…45e9backed No | 66c | 65.23$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.05 | 71 | 60.6%43 W · 28 L | +1.5wins | +0.02per pick | 58cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x67bc…4d94backed Yes | 40c | 62.68$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.68 | 27 | 37%10 W · 17 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4215…f03abacked No | 65c | 55$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.5 | 168 | 31.5%53 W · 115 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xefe7…0cdfbacked Yes | 39c | 51.28$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.28 | 100 | 37%37 W · 63 L | -4.8wins | -0.05per pick | 42cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0613…5204backed Yes | 35c | 48.57$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.57 | 44 | 11.4%5 W · 39 L | -6.8wins | -0.16per pick | 27cpaid | -59.5%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x45d1…7017backed Yes | 31c | 44$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.36 | 96 | 42.7%41 W · 55 L | -3.2wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x90f9…e894backed No | 64c | 31.51$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.21 | 73 | 49.3%36 W · 37 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 38c | 31$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.22 | 779 | 9.6%75 W · 704 L | -11.8wins | -0.02per pick | 11cpaid | -44.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcc0e…0fbdbacked No | 65c | 30$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.5 | 117 | 48.7%57 W · 60 L | -2.0wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2c4a…8e5dbacked No | 65c | 30$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.5 | 397 | 49.9%198 W · 199 L | -16.3wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4e0a…e4e6backed No | 65c | 30$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.5 | 358 | 48.3%173 W · 185 L | -9.7wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc599…2cecbacked No | 65c | 22$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.3 | 202 | 45.5%92 W · 110 L | -13.7wins | -0.07per pick | 52cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa60b…c728backed No | 65c | 18$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.7 | 121 | 47.9%58 W · 63 L | -1.7wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9014…db4abacked No | 65c | 18$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.7 | 55 | 45.5%25 W · 30 L | -2.9wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Fifa International and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Equatorial Guinea win on 2025-11-14?this page
- Will Kenya vs. Equatorial Guinea end in a draw?No won
- Will Kenya win on 2025-11-14?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.