Fifa International · resolved market
Will Kenya vs. Equatorial Guinea end in a draw?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x1cef5b6e5aec7d072a06643646ad278acf4a1d4d806c1cd796f8a63b4fe0838d
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Fifa Internationalevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $21,287
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $19,104
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $21,287 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 19 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Fifa International is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Fifa International | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xdc75…e4bcbacked Yes | 0c | 14,006$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.3wins | -0.05per pick | 22cpaid | -77.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf00f…711abacked No | 62c | 2,068$1,286 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$782.67 | 18 | 44.4%8 W · 10 L | -2.7wins | -0.15per pick | 59cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb1fe…9974backed Yes | 38c | 1,500$568 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$567.91 | 57 | 40.4%23 W · 34 L | -1.1wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x13fa…3facbacked Yes | 25c | 976.05$244 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$244.01 | 224 | 21%47 W · 177 L | +2.9wins | +0.01per pick | 20cpaid | +14.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ed…d7cbbacked No | 75c | 892$669 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$223 | 1,252 | 39.2%491 W · 761 L | +6.0wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe60a…6a47backed Yes | 37c | 871$323 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$323.36 | 300 | 31%93 W · 207 L | -5.8wins | -0.02per pick | 33cpaid | -22.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked No | 64c | 199.77$128 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.8 | 3,696 | 36.9%1,364 W · 2,332 L | -44.0wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -23.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9e49…63f2backed Yes | 32c | 164.41$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.61 | 134 | 19.4%26 W · 108 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 19cpaid | -18.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0362…449ebacked No | 68c | 147.06$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.06 | 226 | 50.9%115 W · 111 L | +4.4wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcda0…6d11backed Yes | 37c | 136$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.32 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.23per pick | 48cpaid | -43.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked No | 66c | 88.34$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30 | 760 | 48.7%370 W · 390 L | -2.9wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2149…3a74backed Yes | 37c | 81.11$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 17 | 35.3%6 W · 11 L | -1.3wins | -0.08per pick | 43cpaid | -43%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9dd9…08bdbacked No | 75c | 75$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.75 | 186 | 41.4%77 W · 109 L | -3.0wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -22.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x67bc…4d94backed Yes | 34c | 73.53$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 27 | 37%10 W · 17 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x45d1…7017backed No | 63c | 54.99$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.35 | 96 | 42.7%41 W · 55 L | -3.2wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xadc1…2d99backed Yes | 34c | 52.57$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -1.6wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9318…a645backed Yes | 39c | 51.28$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 59 | 50.8%30 W · 29 L | -2.0wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xefe7…0cdfbacked Yes | 72c | 50.26$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36 | 100 | 37%37 W · 63 L | -4.8wins | -0.05per pick | 42cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1889…0714backed No | 66c | 40$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.6 | 136 | 54.4%74 W · 62 L | +6.6wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +7.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Fifa International and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Kenya vs. Equatorial Guinea end in a draw?this page
- Will Equatorial Guinea win on 2025-11-14?Yes won
- Will Kenya win on 2025-11-14?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.