Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 50-51°F on April 19?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xe4612610afefb24e4c370c09c2318c02d914f764f8a3b9cf441d3b209a8a275d
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $23,528
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $23,232
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $23,528 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 34 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x8907…d8e6backed Yes | 0c | 6,000$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 10 | 0%0 W · 10 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4464…b76dbacked Yes | 3c | 2,306$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.92 | 86 | 26.7%23 W · 63 L | +3.9wins | +0.05per pick | 22cpaid | +48.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes | 3c | 515.61$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.74 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8103…23a1backed Yes | 8c | 479.04$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.5 | 576 | 14.9%86 W · 490 L | +14.1wins | +0.02per pick | 12cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 2c | 450.25$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.14 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf8dc…f31fbacked Yes | 22c | 445.93$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.51 | 4,525 | 26.7%1,206 W · 3,319 L | +62.2wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xacb6…337fbacked Yes | 6c | 298.68$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.83 | 43 | 37.2%16 W · 27 L | +1.1wins | +0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x035a…ff68backed No | 66c | 291.09$192 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$99.32 | 315 | 42.9%135 W · 180 L | -4.5wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 4c | 281.78$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.16 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x31dc…ce99backed Yes | 7c | 280.67$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.81 | 104 | 27.9%29 W · 75 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | -23.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe1a7…9c23backed Yes | 24c | 252.05$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.22 | 178 | 38.8%69 W · 109 L | +7.6wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3ea1…d176backed Yes | 13c | 232.27$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.71 | 203 | 53.7%109 W · 94 L | +6.6wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2702…06bebacked Yes | 15c | 223.53$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.5 | 93 | 28%26 W · 67 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | +49.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7b4f…8fbcbacked Yes | 8c | 222.68$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.16 | 214 | 40.2%86 W · 128 L | +12.6wins | +0.06per pick | 34cpaid | +18.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 78c | 220.83$173 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.72 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked Yes | 14c | 205.46$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.88 | 1,840 | 37%681 W · 1,159 L | -8.2wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe7dc…0af0backed Yes | 12c | 172.39$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.31 | 66 | 43.9%29 W · 37 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xacbc…0c7ebacked Yes | 32c | 157.47$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.11 | 43 | 60.5%26 W · 17 L | -1.2wins | -0.03per pick | 63cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6405…7d19backed No | 72c | 124.35$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.82 | 84 | 38.1%32 W · 52 L | +5.4wins | +0.06per pick | 32cpaid | +19.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8150…dbbfbacked No | 80c | 123.26$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.24 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -74.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x71a5…0859backed Yes | 38c | 122.23$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.92 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +0.5wins | +0.06per pick | 57cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1fb3…ceeabacked Yes | 15c | 113.92$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.53 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -15.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x85e8…9301backed Yes | 22c | 96.65$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.2 | 113 | 62.8%71 W · 42 L | +3.3wins | +0.03per pick | 60cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd6b0…6be2backed Yes | 20c | 91$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.2 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.29per pick | 21cpaid | +122.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf6f7…e0dabacked Yes | 21c | 77.86$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.96 | 1,861 | 23.8%443 W · 1,418 L | +47.9wins | +0.03per pick | 21cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe7c9…d2b8backed Yes | 34c | 73.44$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.17 | 535 | 47.5%254 W · 281 L | -8.6wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 77c | 54.43$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.39 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x951c…d8c7backed Yes | 37c | 50.23$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.79 | 683 | 35.4%242 W · 441 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 36cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6526…9c80backed Yes | 35c | 46.75$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.35 | 123 | 37.4%46 W · 77 L | -2.5wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeb82…fa1dbacked Yes | 35c | 33.81$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.94 | 40 | 47.5%19 W · 21 L | +2.6wins | +0.07per pick | 41cpaid | +13%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfd64…877cbacked Yes | 30c | 33.67$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.05 | 19 | 47.4%9 W · 10 L | -1.9wins | -0.10per pick | 57cpaid | -22%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8971…809dbacked No | 71c | 30$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.7 | 1,959 | 46%901 W · 1,058 L | -51.3wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa34d…b57fbacked No | 61c | 17.91$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.96 | 999 | 62.8%627 W · 372 L | +37.5wins | +0.04per pick | 59cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6a5e…74b3backed No | 78c | 14.98$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.28 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.22per pick | 78cpaid | +28%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 50-51°F on April 19?this page
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be 66°F or higher on April 19?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 48-49°F on April 19?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 52-53°F on April 19?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 54-55°F on April 19?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 56-57°F on April 19?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 58-59°F on April 19?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 60-61°F on April 19?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.