TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Weather · resolved market

Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 52-53°F on April 19?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Yesof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$31,468
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$32,710

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $31,468 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 92 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Weather
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x1f66…4c8dbacked No4c1,523$62 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$62.312,26718%407 W · 1,860 L-9.5wins0.00per pick18cpaid-14.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xcf37…993fbacked No12c1,002$120 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$120.4765625.8%169 W · 487 L-13.2wins-0.02per pick28cpaid-35.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1ad6…669ebacked No2c809.13$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.186610.6%7 W · 59 L-1.9wins-0.03per pick14cpaid-66.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf8dc…f31fbacked Yes61c797.48$488 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$309.424,52526.7%1,206 W · 3,319 L+62.2wins+0.01per pick25cpaid-21.5%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xeae6…6dd3backed No2c606.05$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.34757.4%27 W · 20 L-1.1wins-0.02per pick60cpaid-14.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x213e…5e0fbacked Yes79c564.05$447 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$117.0365749.8%327 W · 330 L-8.4wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-11.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2a71…527ebacked No20c448.36$89 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$88.79911.1%1 W · 8 L-2.7wins-0.30per pick41cpaid-80.5%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0xb06a…52f5backed Yes65c290.59$190 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$101.035,83236.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L+211.1wins+0.04per pick33cpaid-24.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x8444…1cf9backed No32c274.33$88 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$87.528737.6%108 W · 179 L-13.6wins-0.05per pick42cpaid-15.1%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x4464…b76dbacked Yes37c243.42$90 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$153.098626.7%23 W · 63 L+3.9wins+0.05per pick22cpaid+48.3%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xb40e…7cc9backed No29c217.67$62 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$62.4212,49819.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L-2,667.3wins-0.21per pick41cpaid-66.8%equal weight26-0.21 edge/pick
0x035a…ff68backed Yes62c208.63$129 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$79.6631542.9%135 W · 180 L-4.5wins-0.01per pick44cpaid-7.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe7dc…0af0backed Yes32c190.88$60 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$130.66643.9%29 W · 37 L-0.2wins0.00per pick44cpaid-13.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xef98…7926backed No18c190.68$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35.1442315.4%65 W · 358 L+6.4wins+0.02per pick14cpaid+12.9%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x8f34…2f50backed No51c185.9$95 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$95.134,12060.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L+32.7wins+0.01per pick60cpaid-4.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2702…06bebacked Yes35c181.2$63 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$118.069328%26 W · 67 L+0.4wins0.00per pick28cpaid+49.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x068c…582ebacked Yes56c171.53$96 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$75.953145.2%14 W · 17 L+1.1wins+0.04per pick42cpaid-6.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes16c153.48$24 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$129.519,79944.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L+256.4wins+0.03per pick42cpaid+12.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x2c51…7c37backed No8c149.99$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$125933.9%20 W · 39 L-3.2wins-0.05per pick39cpaid-28.4%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x2671…a5fabacked No76c148.03$113 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$112.8719059.5%113 W · 77 L-5.2wins-0.03per pick62cpaid+0.3%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x5f21…b376backed Yes16c136.65$22 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$114.2917,35519.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L+396.7wins+0.02per pick18cpaid+15.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xacb6…337fbacked Yes31c134.88$42 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$92.494337.2%16 W · 27 L+1.1wins+0.03per pick35cpaid-0.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x31dc…ce99backed Yes31c134.87$42 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$92.4810427.9%29 W · 75 L-0.5wins0.00per pick28cpaid-23.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x21ff…0d71backed Yes53c134.38$71 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$63.165,89749.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L-103.3wins-0.02per pick51cpaid-6.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x928a…0e27backed No73c133.34$97 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$97.449054.4%49 W · 41 L-0.9wins-0.01per pick55cpaid-6.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe1a7…9c23backed Yes44c132.51$59 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$73.5917838.8%69 W · 109 L+7.6wins+0.04per pick35cpaid+6.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x1cdd…e595backed No25c131.67$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33.017,1489.3%666 W · 6,482 L-1,105.8wins-0.15per pick25cpaid-75.9%equal weight33-0.15 edge/pick
0xa081…e7a0backed No20c126.84$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.8138961.7%240 W · 149 L+0.9wins0.00per pick61cpaid-6.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe77d…7383backed No16c115.58$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.921323.1%3 W · 10 L-2.9wins-0.22per pick45cpaid-55.3%equal weight42-0.08 edge/pick
0x40e0…69e3backed Yes66c112.54$74 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$38.413259.4%19 W · 13 L+0.5wins+0.02per pick58cpaid+17.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x71a5…0859backed Yes43c109.81$47 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$62.66862.5%5 W · 3 L+0.5wins+0.06per pick57cpaid-5.4%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xf4da…dfb5backed Yes35c104.23$37 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$67.586848.5%33 W · 35 L+4.2wins+0.06per pick42cpaid+13.2%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xac16…4f44backed Yes53c102.64$54 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$48.2423035.7%82 W · 148 L+4.3wins+0.02per pick34cpaid+4.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc423…2ccdbacked Yes47c101.65$47 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$54.3252444.1%231 W · 293 L-9.0wins-0.02per pick46cpaid-6.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x620d…9f02backed Yes25c100.56$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$75.33911.1%1 W · 8 L-1.4wins-0.15per pick26cpaid-55.7%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xacbc…0c7ebacked Yes79c100$79 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$214360.5%26 W · 17 L-1.2wins-0.03per pick63cpaid-8.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5c1e…1719backed No71c99.86$71 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$71.15520%1 W · 4 L-1.0wins-0.21per pick41cpaid-70%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x951c…d8c7backed Yes30c99.51$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$69.868335.4%242 W · 441 L-0.6wins0.00per pick36cpaid-3.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x85e8…9301backed Yes54c98.04$53 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$45.0911362.8%71 W · 42 L+3.3wins+0.03per pick60cpaid+1.6%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x4b85…7265backed No68c97.11$66 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$65.793860.5%23 W · 15 L+1.4wins+0.04per pick57cpaid-7.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2b13…62d3backed Yes71c96.56$69 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$28.011,05231.2%328 W · 724 L-8.4wins-0.01per pick32cpaid-9.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa3c2…df3dbacked Yes68c95.96$65 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$31.111,84037%681 W · 1,159 L-8.2wins0.00per pick37cpaid-18.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc34f…7d2ebacked No31c95.56$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.3612,17346.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L-42.2wins0.00per pick47cpaid-13.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1a2c…af6cbacked No53c95.01$51 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50.521952.6%10 W · 9 L-0.8wins-0.04per pick57cpaid-7.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb8fc…88e1backed Yes22c80.85$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$62.981,29833.1%430 W · 868 L+39.5wins+0.03per pick30cpaid+4.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xbaf1…ffd5backed Yes28c67.15$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$48.5511436%41 W · 73 L+5.0wins+0.04per pick32cpaid+2.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes28c65.35$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$47.33,93935.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L+35.4wins+0.01per pick34cpaid+0.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xaff9…64ffbacked Yes28c64.99$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$46.792,67430%803 W · 1,871 L+5.4wins0.00per pick30cpaid-0.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6c38…d6a6backed Yes16c64.81$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$54.446421.9%14 W · 50 L-5.0wins-0.08per pick30cpaid-36.1%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x67d6…e01cbacked Yes22c64.47$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$50.03540%2 W · 3 L+0.4wins+0.08per pick32cpaid+55.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x69a4…f990backed No47c61.62$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.743923.1%9 W · 30 L-2.1wins-0.05per pick28cpaid-35.1%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xef10…1d95backed No73c61.27$44 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$44.42862.5%5 W · 3 L-0.5wins-0.07per pick69cpaid-4.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8c93…8967backed Yes53c60$32 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$28.244448.6%216 W · 228 L-3.8wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-1.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf51b…ca1bbacked No31c60$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.61,27434%433 W · 841 L+46.9wins+0.04per pick30cpaid+4.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x8c5e…a8cfbacked No79c58.61$46 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$46.39959.6%59 W · 40 L-5.8wins-0.06per pick65cpaid-9.9%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x2a17…8df6backed No44c55.28$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.32666.7%4 W · 2 L+1.2wins+0.20per pick46cpaid+37.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xaa84…e985backed Yes54c54.97$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$25.2940739.3%160 W · 247 L-11.2wins-0.03per pick42cpaid-7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xaee7…8834backed No36c52$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.7212547.2%59 W · 66 L-5.7wins-0.05per pick52cpaid-11.5%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x1f6f…da3bbacked Yes79c50$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.51100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.21per pick79cpaid+26.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5e86…6ee4backed Yes79c50$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.51100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.21per pick79cpaid+26.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4cf4…f4dabacked Yes79c50$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.51100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.21per pick79cpaid+26.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xea74…2fadbacked No67c50$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33.512068.3%82 W · 38 L+1.7wins+0.01per pick67cpaid-0.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x59d8…b28abacked Yes79c50$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.51100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.21per pick79cpaid+26.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8e2a…debfbacked No45c50$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.51747.1%8 W · 9 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick48cpaid-10.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2986…b3a9backed No30c50$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$152,99531.4%940 W · 2,055 L+41.6wins+0.01per pick30cpaid+4.6%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xf0b0…8cabbacked No27c46.87$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.822,11936.1%764 W · 1,355 L-12.1wins-0.01per pick37cpaid-26.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5368…e7b8backed Yes36c42.82$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$27.411752.9%9 W · 8 L+0.2wins+0.01per pick52cpaid+2.3%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x01a6…59b0backed No62c41.68$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.641,67961.7%1,036 W · 643 L+6.3wins0.00per pick61cpaid-0.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x36c2…2b8cbacked No70c41.03$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.7270770.2%496 W · 211 L-4.2wins-0.01per pick71cpaid-2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa2ea…8ed1backed Yes71c40$29 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.51457.1%8 W · 6 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick58cpaid+15.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x64a6…4ac1backed No27c38.79$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.436553.8%35 W · 30 L-1.9wins-0.03per pick57cpaid-6.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8798…45efbacked Yes53c36.12$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17.077736.4%28 W · 49 L-0.3wins0.00per pick37cpaid-2.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x420c…1f36backed Yes41c34.56$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20.4529835.2%105 W · 193 L+2.8wins+0.01per pick34cpaid-8.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xae68…064abacked No62c32.35$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.962,55563.8%1,631 W · 924 L+38.4wins+0.02per pick62cpaid+8.7%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x5c38…f194backed No34c32$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.742,51747.2%1,188 W · 1,329 L+52.6wins+0.02per pick45cpaid+5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6e41…5e0cbacked Yes62c30.25$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.641,06147.9%508 W · 553 L+32.9wins+0.03per pick45cpaid+0.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xa222…7d3cbacked Yes51c30$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.71060%6 W · 4 L+1.0wins+0.10per pick50cpaid+14.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x4be0…c37dbacked No70c29.1$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.3719058.9%112 W · 78 L-8.2wins-0.04per pick63cpaid-7.7%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x081e…1e4ebacked Yes56c28.91$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.6332147.4%152 W · 169 L+4.0wins+0.01per pick46cpaid-3.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x045c…c74abacked Yes37c27.86$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17.551643.8%7 W · 9 L+0.4wins+0.03per pick41cpaid+3.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x029a…8039backed Yes54c26.29$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.972740.7%11 W · 16 L+0.8wins+0.03per pick38cpaid-6.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5da1…a003backed Yes54c26.25$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.0817138.6%66 W · 105 L+4.0wins+0.02per pick36cpaid+7.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4bb0…c1d7backed Yes56c25.61$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.27850%4 W · 4 L+0.9wins+0.11per pick39cpaid-7.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x351a…f836backed Yes40c25.09$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15.0528649.3%141 W · 145 L+7.3wins+0.03per pick47cpaid+5.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x6723…0f31backed Yes54c23.85$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.971338.5%5 W · 8 L+0.7wins+0.05per pick33cpaid-0.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa49b…7054backed No70c21.19$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.827,48137.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L+97.4wins+0.01per pick36cpaid+6.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6240…c294backed No48c20.88$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.029462.8%59 W · 35 L-1.9wins-0.02per pick65cpaid-5.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x873d…f7a9backed No64c19.44$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.485865.5%38 W · 20 L-1.3wins-0.02per pick68cpaid-4.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9c31…68a1backed No80c18.14$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.5119547.2%92 W · 103 L-9.0wins-0.05per pick52cpaid-4.6%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xf64f…99d7backed No59c16.95$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$103948.7%19 W · 20 L-4.2wins-0.11per pick60cpaid-13.5%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0x470b…c331backed Yes80c16.29$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3.2614744.2%65 W · 82 L-5.5wins-0.04per pick48cpaid-5.9%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x8a62…ace3backed No80c12.74$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.194961.2%30 W · 19 L-1.9wins-0.04per pick65cpaid-12%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.