Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 54-55°F on April 19?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xa9698f090995e9d3e7d36dc3e9af0ea7beecb9573bda470f5e28bb1d45126f2a
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $21,549
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $20,394
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $21,549 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 68 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x57ee…8112backed Yes | 1c | 2,191$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.61 | 1,727 | 18%311 W · 1,416 L | +74.3wins | +0.04per pick | 14cpaid | +11%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1f66…4c8dbacked Yes | 1c | 1,289$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.4 | 2,267 | 18%407 W · 1,860 L | -9.5wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1ad6…669ebacked Yes | 2c | 1,211$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.21 | 66 | 10.6%7 W · 59 L | -1.9wins | -0.03per pick | 14cpaid | -66.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2a73…a498backed Yes | 33c | 331.45$109 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108.51 | 35 | 22.9%8 W · 27 L | -1.4wins | -0.04per pick | 27cpaid | -29.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2b13…62d3backed Yes | 32c | 326.45$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102.96 | 1,052 | 31.2%328 W · 724 L | -8.4wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4464…b76dbacked Yes | 6c | 299.98$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 86 | 26.7%23 W · 63 L | +3.9wins | +0.05per pick | 22cpaid | +48.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked Yes | 14c | 229.34$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.34 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb8fc…88e1backed Yes | 31c | 206.03$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.87 | 1,298 | 33.1%430 W · 868 L | +39.5wins | +0.03per pick | 30cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe7dc…0af0backed Yes | 37c | 191.22$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.43 | 66 | 43.9%29 W · 37 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 70c | 148.83$104 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.96 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x68a3…5dd5backed Yes | 35c | 144.46$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.35 | 467 | 43.7%204 W · 263 L | +7.1wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | +2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 19c | 129.19$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.44 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x71a5…0859backed Yes | 38c | 122.41$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.92 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +0.5wins | +0.06per pick | 57cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc602…6278backed Yes | 14c | 111.93$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.67 | 22 | 4.5%1 W · 21 L | -1.1wins | -0.05per pick | 10cpaid | -67.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc9b7…ac89backed Yes | 24c | 106.55$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.21 | 110 | 44.5%49 W · 61 L | +2.7wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | +14.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 15c | 102.27$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.71 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8aa9…7a0ebacked Yes | 20c | 100.06$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 28 | 46.4%13 W · 15 L | +1.6wins | +0.06per pick | 41cpaid | +9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x951c…d8c7backed Yes | 35c | 99.77$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.01 | 683 | 35.4%242 W · 441 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 36cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x412f…753bbacked Yes | 26c | 98.86$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.43 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -16.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x029a…8039backed Yes | 24c | 97.32$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.12 | 27 | 40.7%11 W · 16 L | +0.8wins | +0.03per pick | 38cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x620d…9f02backed Yes | 36c | 96.27$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.51 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -1.4wins | -0.15per pick | 26cpaid | -55.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4bb0…c1d7backed Yes | 26c | 90.66$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.18 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +0.9wins | +0.11per pick | 39cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked Yes | 22c | 86.54$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.08 | 1,840 | 37%681 W · 1,159 L | -8.2wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa98a…a5a8backed No | 67c | 84.39$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.85 | 2,015 | 67.7%1,365 W · 650 L | +1.8wins | 0.00per pick | 68cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 36c | 81.79$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.16 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5c1e…1719backed No | 67c | 70.96$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.59 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.0wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -70%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3646…ba5abacked Yes | 29c | 69.99$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.4 | 407 | 41.3%168 W · 239 L | +32.5wins | +0.08per pick | 33cpaid | +21.9%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x4b85…7265backed No | 66c | 68.09$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.12 | 38 | 60.5%23 W · 15 L | +1.4wins | +0.04per pick | 57cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x35e6…7a4dbacked No | 67c | 67.66$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.33 | 1,699 | 60.6%1,029 W · 670 L | -24.7wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbaf1…ffd5backed Yes | 35c | 66.25$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.48 | 114 | 36%41 W · 73 L | +5.0wins | +0.04per pick | 32cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6ad7…347abacked No | 66c | 65.99$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.54 | 729 | 52.4%382 W · 347 L | +34.9wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2671…a5fabacked No | 67c | 65.26$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.54 | 190 | 59.5%113 W · 77 L | -5.2wins | -0.03per pick | 62cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xced6…3f6dbacked Yes | 16c | 62.69$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.03 | 79 | 12.7%10 W · 69 L | -6.5wins | -0.08per pick | 21cpaid | -72.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xba96…7080backed No | 68c | 62.21$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.64 | 125 | 60.8%76 W · 49 L | +6.5wins | +0.05per pick | 56cpaid | +24.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x67d6…e01cbacked Yes | 39c | 58.7$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.03 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.4wins | +0.08per pick | 32cpaid | +55.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0b87…9414backed Yes | 30c | 51.31$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.65 | 2,001 | 38.4%768 W · 1,233 L | +1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2e99…b482backed Yes | 25c | 50$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.5 | 425 | 44%187 W · 238 L | +15.1wins | +0.04per pick | 40cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 33c | 48.67$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.2 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x39fa…0b7dbacked No | 64c | 46.7$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.81 | 407 | 77.1%314 W · 93 L | +28.1wins | +0.07per pick | 70cpaid | +9.3%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1831…6c99backed Yes | 34c | 46.69$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.82 | 349 | 34.1%119 W · 230 L | -1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2f01…4c3abacked Yes | 33c | 46.11$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.01 | 161 | 59%95 W · 66 L | -6.4wins | -0.04per pick | 63cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaff9…64ffbacked Yes | 36c | 45.87$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.58 | 2,674 | 30%803 W · 1,871 L | +5.4wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes | 33c | 45.11$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.94 | 3,939 | 35.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L | +35.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcf37…993fbacked No | 63c | 44.06$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.18 | 656 | 25.8%169 W · 487 L | -13.2wins | -0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -35.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaa84…e985backed No | 66c | 43.48$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.72 | 407 | 39.3%160 W · 247 L | -11.2wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 32c | 42.62$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.67 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x36c2…2b8cbacked No | 69c | 41.57$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.89 | 707 | 70.2%496 W · 211 L | -4.2wins | -0.01per pick | 71cpaid | -2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5368…e7b8backed Yes | 36c | 40.99$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.76 | 17 | 52.9%9 W · 8 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed No | 67c | 39.69$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.1 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc931…7d46backed No | 64c | 37.57$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.47 | 141 | 58.2%82 W · 59 L | -5.2wins | -0.04per pick | 62cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8327…577dbacked Yes | 29c | 37.16$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.74 | 95 | 52.6%50 W · 45 L | +5.6wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe7c9…d2b8backed No | 70c | 35.71$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.71 | 535 | 47.5%254 W · 281 L | -8.6wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xef2e…10c3backed Yes | 40c | 35.71$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.14 | 402 | 42.5%171 W · 231 L | -12.4wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x013a…e374backed Yes | 34c | 29.46$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.02 | 84 | 32.1%27 W · 57 L | +3.8wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1638…26b7backed No | 67c | 25.17$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.31 | 26 | 46.2%12 W · 14 L | -0.9wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -24%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0a1e…9095backed No | 62c | 23.27$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.84 | 173 | 76.3%132 W · 41 L | +11.7wins | +0.07per pick | 70cpaid | +8.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x906f…371abacked No | 60c | 23.04$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.22 | 2,495 | 69.9%1,744 W · 751 L | +80.3wins | +0.03per pick | 67cpaid | +5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9c31…68a1backed No | 67c | 21.49$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.09 | 195 | 47.2%92 W · 103 L | -9.0wins | -0.05per pick | 52cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa915…93c7backed No | 75c | 19.5$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.87 | 11 | 81.8%9 W · 2 L | +0.8wins | +0.07per pick | 74cpaid | +10.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa4ef…08ffbacked No | 66c | 19.32$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.57 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.34per pick | 66cpaid | +51.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb537…14ccbacked No | 66c | 18.11$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.16 | 414 | 60.1%249 W · 165 L | -21.5wins | -0.05per pick | 65cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb423…c178backed No | 68c | 16.54$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.29 | 268 | 61.6%165 W · 103 L | -6.4wins | -0.02per pick | 64cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6e5e…5441backed No | 64c | 16.37$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.89 | 32 | 50%16 W · 16 L | -4.2wins | -0.13per pick | 63cpaid | -27.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb740…eabbbacked No | 64c | 16.3$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.87 | 239 | 23.4%56 W · 183 L | -17.1wins | -0.07per pick | 31cpaid | -30.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4c04…3d8bbacked No | 64c | 16.2$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.83 | 91 | 61.5%56 W · 35 L | +1.5wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8a62…ace3backed No | 66c | 16$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.44 | 49 | 61.2%30 W · 19 L | -1.9wins | -0.04per pick | 65cpaid | -12%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c4…b153backed No | 74c | 14.61$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.85 | 48 | 64.6%31 W · 17 L | +1.7wins | +0.04per pick | 61cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6240…c294backed No | 75c | 13.66$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.42 | 94 | 62.8%59 W · 35 L | -1.9wins | -0.02per pick | 65cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 54-55°F on April 19?this page
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be 66°F or higher on April 19?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 48-49°F on April 19?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 50-51°F on April 19?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 52-53°F on April 19?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 56-57°F on April 19?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 58-59°F on April 19?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 60-61°F on April 19?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.