Bundesliga · resolved market
1. FC Magdeburg vs. DSC Arminia Bielefeld: Both Teams to Score
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xe46ce477764bd2b783343a2da54fb04886d6ae9d020990595c45ddfe45293f9e
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Bundesligaevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $1,092
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $1,051
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $1,092 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 18 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Bundesliga is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x204f…5e14backed No | 41c | 480.34$198 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$282.42 | 3,284 | 42.6%1,399 W · 1,885 L | -74.0wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x012a…c01dbacked Yes | 58c | 172.93$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 18 | 27.8%5 W · 13 L | -3.7wins | -0.20per pick | 48cpaid | -29.2%equal weight | 41-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked No | 37c | 158.88$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100.08 | 1,681 | 45.2%759 W · 922 L | +6.8wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1d94…9100backed No | 41c | 150.53$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.96 | 762 | 34.8%265 W · 497 L | +9.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe704…7558backed Yes | 59c | 134.75$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.32 | 178 | 55.6%99 W · 79 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5944…bd5bbacked Yes | 63c | 90$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.7 | 138 | 51.4%71 W · 67 L | +4.9wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +12.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcfe6…49f8backed Yes | 63c | 79.54$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 221 | 57%126 W · 95 L | +10.6wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc5b0…627abacked Yes | 66c | 75.76$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.2wins | -0.30per pick | 55cpaid | -54.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2d6f…06c4backed No | 39c | 65.13$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.73 | 15 | 33.3%5 W · 10 L | +0.5wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | +15.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9346…ea03backed Yes | 63c | 63.46$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 52 | 46.2%24 W · 28 L | +1.2wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x78d2…7a2bbacked Yes | 51c | 51.25$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.3 | 33 | 33.3%11 W · 22 L | -3.4wins | -0.10per pick | 44cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5404…5e58backed Yes | 69c | 50$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.5 | 86 | 36%31 W · 55 L | +1.7wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | +9.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfd43…7b3fbacked Yes | 50c | 40$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 58 | 58.6%34 W · 24 L | +3.7wins | +0.06per pick | 52cpaid | +12%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf38c…d9f2backed Yes | 54c | 37.04$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 117 | 48.7%57 W · 60 L | -3.8wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Yes | 49c | 27.92$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.66 | 2,538 | 39.8%1,009 W · 1,529 L | -8.1wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ef…0b77backed Yes | 63c | 23.81$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 23 | 65.2%15 W · 8 L | +0.9wins | +0.04per pick | 61cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xee45…e055backed Yes | 63c | 20$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.6 | 49 | 59.2%29 W · 20 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd01c…7f9dbacked Yes | 61c | 20$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.2 | 481 | 46.4%223 W · 258 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- 1. FC Magdeburg vs. DSC Arminia Bielefeld: Both Teams to Scorethis page
- 1. FC Magdeburg vs. DSC Arminia Bielefeld: O/U 1.5Over won
- 1. FC Magdeburg vs. DSC Arminia Bielefeld: O/U 2.5Under won
- 1. FC Magdeburg vs. DSC Arminia Bielefeld: O/U 3.5Under won
- 1. FC Magdeburg vs. DSC Arminia Bielefeld: O/U 4.5Under won
- Spread: DSC Arminia Bielefeld (-2.5)1. FC Magdeburg won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.