Bundesliga · resolved market
1. FC Magdeburg vs. DSC Arminia Bielefeld: O/U 2.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x12bc9a557ae90771e534362f85ad7d0157a77ed840722a42125cf6950ab8a904
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Bundesligaevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $509,112
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $510,888
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $509,112 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 76 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Bundesliga is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4924…3782backed Under | 42c | 489,109$205,021 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$284,088.16 | 28 | 32.1%9 W · 19 L | -5.1wins | -0.18per pick | 50cpaid | -34.7%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x37e4…c991backed Over | 58c | 200,000$116,750 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$116,750 | 40 | 42.5%17 W · 23 L | -1.5wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +28.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe20a…e469backed Over | 58c | 199,113$115,485 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$115,485.34 | 147 | 56.5%83 W · 64 L | +3.4wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcd9b…414dbacked Over | 57c | 62,500$35,938 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35,937.5 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Over | 57c | 9,840$5,595 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,594.88 | 2,538 | 39.8%1,009 W · 1,529 L | -8.1wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked Over | 58c | 5,363$3,111 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,110.51 | 1,681 | 45.2%759 W · 922 L | +6.8wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdcfe…44b5backed Over | 59c | 3,333$1,966 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,966.47 | 43 | 51.2%22 W · 21 L | -0.9wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x422c…9840backed Over | 40c | 2,481$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,000 | 18 | 33.3%6 W · 12 L | -1.7wins | -0.09per pick | 43cpaid | -25.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Over | 57c | 2,273$1,295 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,295.4 | 1,355 | 50.9%690 W · 665 L | +12.7wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9fad…5a9fbacked Over | 60c | 2,000$1,200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,200 | 332 | 44.6%148 W · 184 L | -3.1wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd6b2…c0dbbacked Under | 40c | 1,898$759 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,138.5 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.8wins | +0.36per pick | 44cpaid | +92.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xcb14…5358backed Over | 59c | 1,250$741 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$741.49 | 50 | 68%34 W · 16 L | +4.9wins | +0.10per pick | 58cpaid | +15%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x08ba…2a30backed Over | 59c | 888$524 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$523.92 | 128 | 61.7%79 W · 49 L | +3.9wins | +0.03per pick | 59cpaid | +6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x10b0…8525backed Under | 41c | 877.58$356 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$521.48 | 168 | 50%84 W · 84 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6c67…a813backed Under | 75c | 827.25$622 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$205.61 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.09per pick | 75cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x77bc…b91bbacked Over | 41c | 538.04$220 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$220.22 | 1,305 | 40.8%532 W · 773 L | -42.3wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -21.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Over | 50c | 522.75$261 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$260.75 | 3,284 | 42.6%1,399 W · 1,885 L | -74.0wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8c0d…b612backed Over | 58c | 517.55$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 142 | 60.6%86 W · 56 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 61cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x06a0…5804backed Over | 50c | 500.52$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250 | 25 | 48%12 W · 13 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc1d7…73a1backed Under | 42c | 493.56$207 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$286.71 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.1wins | -0.27per pick | 52cpaid | -40.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd092…342abacked Over | 61c | 442.62$270 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$270 | 187 | 59.4%111 W · 76 L | -1.2wins | -0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6203…5544backed Over | 57c | 400$228 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$228 | 26 | 57.7%15 W · 11 L | +1.2wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | +18.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x85a1…a640backed Over | 61c | 350$214 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$213.5 | 89 | 59.6%53 W · 36 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2dad…a040backed Over | 56c | 300$168 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$168 | 61 | 82%50 W · 11 L | +7.9wins | +0.13per pick | 69cpaid | +18.9%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xaf80…25c3backed Over | 54c | 277.78$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.13per pick | 46cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8314…0f1ebacked Under | 41c | 250$103 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$147.5 | 44 | 65.9%29 W · 15 L | +7.0wins | +0.16per pick | 50cpaid | +31%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xf16d…b7f9backed Over | 57c | 225.17$128 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$128.35 | 46 | 30.4%14 W · 32 L | +1.3wins | +0.03per pick | 28cpaid | +85.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x53cd…f23ebacked Over | 60c | 200$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$119.75 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | -1.3wins | -0.09per pick | 45cpaid | +19%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7b2c…af48backed Over | 60c | 200$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120 | 565 | 47.8%270 W · 295 L | +6.8wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3f51…41edbacked Over | 60c | 183.33$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110 | 66 | 59.1%39 W · 27 L | +3.7wins | +0.06per pick | 53cpaid | +11%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x23d3…eb28backed Under | 50c | 178.4$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.4 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2583…30d5backed Over | 61c | 163.93$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 18 | 61.1%11 W · 7 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 59cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x01c7…e995backed Under | 59c | 160.6$95 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.85 | 1,013 | 44.5%451 W · 562 L | -8.2wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -20.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x849f…0665backed Over | 58c | 150$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87 | 57 | 52.6%30 W · 27 L | +3.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +13.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf497…5ce0backed Over | 24c | 150$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36 | 117 | 44.4%52 W · 65 L | -4.2wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd6dd…3ab9backed Under | 42c | 142.07$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82.07 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +18.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2b40…6255backed Under | 40c | 124.82$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.82 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +24.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9cf7…e5a5backed Over | 42c | 119.05$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 118 | 57.6%68 W · 50 L | +15.7wins | +0.13per pick | 44cpaid | +31.1%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xf0d7…0ed9backed Under | 43c | 116.87$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.87 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.14per pick | 54cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x33a7…e607backed Over | 22c | 112.5$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 64 | 35.9%23 W · 41 L | -7.6wins | -0.12per pick | 48cpaid | -22.1%equal weight | 41-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x0ee1…268bbacked Under | 41c | 110.82$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.38 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | -0.6wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | 0%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9154…8f2dbacked Over | 30c | 106.01$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.76 | 59 | 42.4%25 W · 34 L | +2.7wins | +0.05per pick | 38cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf2ba…4028backed Over | 43c | 100$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43 | 388 | 45.6%177 W · 211 L | +3.8wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb6aa…3746backed Over | 59c | 100$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59 | 58 | 36.2%21 W · 37 L | +1.2wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | +10.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3bcf…402abacked Over | 30c | 100$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 91 | 23.1%21 W · 70 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 24cpaid | -20.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x47f9…4731backed Over | 61c | 100$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61 | 27 | 44.4%12 W · 15 L | -0.7wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb0e6…84a8backed Over | 54c | 99.99$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.99 | 60 | 53.3%32 W · 28 L | -1.0wins | -0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xec8d…453dbacked Under | 42c | 94.71$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.71 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x087f…2ebfbacked Under | 46c | 86.25$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.57 | 34 | 58.8%20 W · 14 L | -0.9wins | -0.03per pick | 61cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed Under | 39c | 86$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.4 | 1,083 | 50.8%550 W · 533 L | +8.2wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcfe6…49f8backed Over | 61c | 81.97$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 221 | 57%126 W · 95 L | +10.6wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdc91…0fdbbacked Over | 61c | 81.97$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 209 | 57.4%120 W · 89 L | -0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4d8f…de22backed Under | 44c | 79.55$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.55 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.56per pick | 44cpaid | +127.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc981…a53dbacked Over | 60c | 77.98$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.69 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -1.0wins | -0.10per pick | 50cpaid | -19.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb18c…df51backed Over | 48c | 62.5$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 106 | 48.1%51 W · 55 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfad3…0a3abacked Under | 42c | 53.43$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.9 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.19per pick | 53cpaid | -21%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0e0c…b90abacked Over | 59c | 50.85$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 51 | 49%25 W · 26 L | +1.2wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6d54…81a1backed Over | 50c | 50$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 46 | 58.7%27 W · 19 L | +4.7wins | +0.10per pick | 49cpaid | +21.9%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x51eb…6bfabacked Over | 61c | 49.18$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 137 | 54%74 W · 63 L | -5.5wins | -0.04per pick | 58cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x313c…61d9backed Under | 40c | 48.76$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.26 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.8wins | +0.14per pick | 36cpaid | +21.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0eb7…f733backed Over | 54c | 47$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.38 | 13 | 61.5%8 W · 5 L | +1.7wins | +0.13per pick | 48cpaid | +31.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x007f…fb6cbacked Under | 43c | 46.51$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.51 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.1wins | +0.54per pick | 46cpaid | +118.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1813…4dfebacked Over | 57c | 43.66$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.79 | 183 | 53%97 W · 86 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x44b8…a2d7backed Over | 49c | 40.82$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 205 | 40%82 W · 123 L | -8.0wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1f62…76f6backed Over | 57c | 40$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.8 | 636 | 45.1%287 W · 349 L | +5.2wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7a51…3fe0backed Under | 43c | 38.28$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.82 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.57per pick | 43cpaid | +132.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3c00…1c78backed Under | 40c | 37.5$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.5 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.18per pick | 49cpaid | +62.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3179…3d2abacked Over | 56c | 35.71$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 63cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbc15…3a2ebacked Under | 42c | 28.74$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.58 | 18 | 44.4%8 W · 10 L | -0.6wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x22cc…8aeabacked Over | 57c | 26.86$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.31 | 100 | 51%51 W · 49 L | -1.5wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -17.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe851…9471backed Over | 58c | 25.76$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 17 | 52.9%9 W · 8 L | -0.8wins | -0.05per pick | 58cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb9b2…fdcdbacked Under | 41c | 25$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.75 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.59per pick | 41cpaid | +143.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1d94…9100backed Under | 54c | 22.85$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.46 | 762 | 34.8%265 W · 497 L | +9.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a3…9489backed Over | 56c | 22$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.32 | 536 | 45.9%246 W · 290 L | +6.7wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2344…6ba3backed Over | 59c | 21.38$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.72 | 29 | 41.4%12 W · 17 L | -1.0wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -24%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd01c…7f9dbacked Over | 58c | 20$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.6 | 481 | 46.4%223 W · 258 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- 1. FC Magdeburg vs. DSC Arminia Bielefeld: O/U 2.5this page
- 1. FC Magdeburg vs. DSC Arminia Bielefeld: Both Teams to ScoreNo won
- 1. FC Magdeburg vs. DSC Arminia Bielefeld: O/U 1.5Over won
- 1. FC Magdeburg vs. DSC Arminia Bielefeld: O/U 3.5Under won
- 1. FC Magdeburg vs. DSC Arminia Bielefeld: O/U 4.5Under won
- Spread: DSC Arminia Bielefeld (-2.5)1. FC Magdeburg won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.