Bundesliga · resolved market
1. FC Magdeburg vs. DSC Arminia Bielefeld: O/U 1.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xe0db6ea01bd36ce05b07b9b3ed7edee79a20ff7452d30e8cfe340bd73a97043d
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Bundesligaevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $15,183
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $20,670
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $15,183 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 32 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Bundesliga is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 27c | 3,589$980 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$980.11 | 3,284 | 42.6%1,399 W · 1,885 L | -74.0wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked Under | 18c | 2,736$489 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$488.9 | 1,681 | 45.2%759 W · 922 L | +6.8wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Under | 39c | 904.56$352 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$351.84 | 1,355 | 50.9%690 W · 665 L | +12.7wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8c0d…b612backed Over | 59c | 471.03$280 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$191.03 | 142 | 60.6%86 W · 56 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 61cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe306…0380backed Under | 10c | 385.43$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.54 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | +0.5wins | +0.10per pick | 10cpaid | +100%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbec3…760ebacked Over | 72c | 305.39$220 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84.94 | 30 | 76.7%23 W · 7 L | +3.5wins | +0.12per pick | 65cpaid | +20.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa5b8…99f3backed Under | 10c | 300$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 12 | 8.3%1 W · 11 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 9cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x12e8…2cecbacked Under | 10c | 300$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 21 | 9.5%2 W · 19 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 9cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x77bc…b91bbacked Over | 58c | 271.26$157 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$113.91 | 1,305 | 40.8%532 W · 773 L | -42.3wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -21.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1d94…9100backed Under | 19c | 232.35$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.73 | 762 | 34.8%265 W · 497 L | +9.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2dad…a040backed Over | 75c | 230.67$173 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.67 | 61 | 82%50 W · 11 L | +7.9wins | +0.13per pick | 69cpaid | +18.9%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x172d…6f3ebacked Over | 56c | 200$112 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88 | 90 | 62.2%56 W · 34 L | +5.6wins | +0.06per pick | 56cpaid | +10.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb0e6…84a8backed Over | 55c | 200$110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90 | 60 | 53.3%32 W · 28 L | -1.0wins | -0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8e5a…154cbacked Over | 51c | 196.08$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96.08 | 89 | 55.1%49 W · 40 L | +4.4wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +11.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xafa3…1f19backed Under | 25c | 189.9$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.95 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.30per pick | 30cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0040…9eb8backed Over | 70c | 180$125 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.5 | 225 | 62.2%140 W · 85 L | +4.3wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x05f8…d87fbacked Over | 78c | 140.09$109 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.72 | 8 | 100%8 W · 0 L | +4.3wins | +0.54per pick | 46cpaid | +228.8%equal weight | 64+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x9075…cfe8backed Over | 68c | 124.07$84 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40 | 253 | 52.2%132 W · 121 L | -0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf2ba…4028backed Over | 70c | 100$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30 | 388 | 45.6%177 W · 211 L | +3.8wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8e52…2320backed Over | 68c | 91$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.11 | 53 | 64.2%34 W · 19 L | +1.5wins | +0.03per pick | 61cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x61ce…21ebbacked Over | 78c | 80$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.6 | 8 | 87.5%7 W · 1 L | +0.9wins | +0.11per pick | 76cpaid | +14%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x97b2…1c44backed Over | 59c | 70$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.05 | 56 | 55.4%31 W · 25 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Under | 31c | 61.18$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.8 | 2,538 | 39.8%1,009 W · 1,529 L | -8.1wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf788…6f86backed Over | 71c | 56.34$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.34 | 90 | 68.9%62 W · 28 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 69cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5df7…29c5backed Over | 73c | 54.79$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.79 | 10 | 70%7 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 70cpaid | -1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf497…5ce0backed Over | 64c | 50$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18 | 117 | 44.4%52 W · 65 L | -4.2wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2463…f5b5backed Over | 66c | 50$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17 | 55 | 63.6%35 W · 20 L | +2.8wins | +0.05per pick | 58cpaid | +8.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdc32…00bfbacked Over | 57c | 35.09$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.09 | 49 | 57.1%28 W · 21 L | +3.5wins | +0.07per pick | 50cpaid | +17%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe579…ba5ebacked Over | 80c | 34$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.97 | 24 | 83.3%20 W · 4 L | +5.1wins | +0.21per pick | 62cpaid | +33.2%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x7d20…1f58backed Over | 77c | 32.47$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.47 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 67cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6f6f…5a01backed Over | 79c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.2 | 15 | 73.3%11 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 74cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfacd…d470backed Over | 75c | 15$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.75 | 37 | 78.4%29 W · 8 L | +1.7wins | +0.05per pick | 74cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- 1. FC Magdeburg vs. DSC Arminia Bielefeld: O/U 1.5this page
- 1. FC Magdeburg vs. DSC Arminia Bielefeld: Both Teams to ScoreNo won
- 1. FC Magdeburg vs. DSC Arminia Bielefeld: O/U 2.5Under won
- 1. FC Magdeburg vs. DSC Arminia Bielefeld: O/U 3.5Under won
- 1. FC Magdeburg vs. DSC Arminia Bielefeld: O/U 4.5Under won
- Spread: DSC Arminia Bielefeld (-2.5)1. FC Magdeburg won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.