Dota2 · resolved market
Dota 2: Vici Gaming vs Yakutou Brothers - Game 1 Winner
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xe47158fb1ea23872ebc6fe7b7c19605a06b345480b8976a841bae93efd8a055a
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yakutou Brothersof Vici Gaming, Yakutou Brothers
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Dota2every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $11,744
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $12,502
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $11,744 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 26 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Dota2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Dota2 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xc736…7255backed Yakutou Brothers | 46c | 2,000$920 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,080 | 41 | 41.5%17 W · 24 L | -4.5wins | -0.11per pick | 52cpaid | -29.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xacf6…41fcbacked Vici Gaming | 61c | 1,343$819 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$819.5 | 606 | 46.9%284 W · 322 L | +10.5wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6e63…9e38backed Vici Gaming | 65c | 1,000$650 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$649.7 | 345 | 61.2%211 W · 134 L | +17.7wins | +0.05per pick | 56cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xaa57…a128backed Vici Gaming | 15c | 750$116 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$116 | 466 | 64.2%299 W · 167 L | +9.2wins | +0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5905…a34cbacked Vici Gaming | 64c | 692.04$446 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$445.55 | 19 | 26.3%5 W · 14 L | -3.6wins | -0.19per pick | 45cpaid | -51.8%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x7e14…8d33backed Vici Gaming | 9c | 650.07$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.75 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | +0.8wins | +0.05per pick | 39cpaid | +16.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x86b1…c094backed Yakutou Brothers | 32c | 641.29$204 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$437.59 | 656 | 25.6%168 W · 488 L | +14.7wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x64a8…7bc3backed Yakutou Brothers | 66c | 331.09$220 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$111.09 | 146 | 61%89 W · 57 L | +2.2wins | +0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Yakutou Brothers | 40c | 196.93$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$117.36 | 738 | 41.7%308 W · 430 L | -5.2wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x83c8…3b6cbacked Vici Gaming | 53c | 187.86$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 913 | 56.1%512 W · 401 L | +16.2wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x02a4…6854backed Vici Gaming | 53c | 107.31$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.24 | 1,797 | 55.8%1,003 W · 794 L | +37.5wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0386…2b1abacked Vici Gaming | 40c | 104.58$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.94 | 305 | 43%131 W · 174 L | +18.2wins | +0.06per pick | 37cpaid | +52.8%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9fcc…5b93backed Vici Gaming | 15c | 81$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.75 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | -0.9wins | -0.07per pick | 49cpaid | -23.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3c65…6a0cbacked Vici Gaming | 40c | 74.8$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.99 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -1.0wins | -0.16per pick | 49cpaid | -35.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe35e…20e7backed Yakutou Brothers | 54c | 62.58$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.83 | 19 | 57.9%11 W · 8 L | +0.6wins | +0.03per pick | 55cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbb34…507bbacked Vici Gaming | 40c | 60$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 17 | 23.5%4 W · 13 L | -5.2wins | -0.31per pick | 54cpaid | -52.4%equal weight | 36-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x6d58…8accbacked Yakutou Brothers | 66c | 57.24$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.36 | 128 | 62.5%80 W · 48 L | -4.7wins | -0.04per pick | 66cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd40b…429abacked Yakutou Brothers | 59c | 50$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.3 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | +1.3wins | +0.12per pick | 52cpaid | +45.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xabe5…d99abacked Yakutou Brothers | 60c | 50$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 386 | 49.5%191 W · 195 L | +3.6wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x40ba…7ea5backed Yakutou Brothers | 42c | 50$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29 | 537 | 57.7%310 W · 227 L | +11.8wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfdec…a7a3backed Yakutou Brothers | 22c | 45.5$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.49 | 27 | 48.1%13 W · 14 L | +1.0wins | +0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1c83…6f40backed Vici Gaming | 73c | 41.37$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 204 | 57.8%118 W · 86 L | +6.4wins | +0.03per pick | 55cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa416…6550backed Vici Gaming | 50c | 35.12$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.56 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x836a…4dfabacked Yakutou Brothers | 80c | 30$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0919…fcbcbacked Yakutou Brothers | 59c | 23.45$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.61 | 15 | 26.7%4 W · 11 L | -1.4wins | -0.09per pick | 36cpaid | +76.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5d9e…e0e3backed Yakutou Brothers | 51c | 20.94$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.37 | 137 | 33.6%46 W · 91 L | -8.1wins | -0.06per pick | 39cpaid | -34.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Dota2 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Dota 2: Vici Gaming vs Yakutou Brothers - Game 1 Winnerthis page
- Dota 2: Vici Gaming vs Yakutou Brothers (BO3) - ESL Challenger China PlayoffsYakutou Brothers won
- Dota 2: Vici Gaming vs Yakutou Brothers - Game 2 WinnerYakutou Brothers won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.