Ncaa Basketball · resolved market
Baylor Bears vs. Creighton Bluejays
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xe47408c466b8ef23fce88514fb9afbf0818f4097c5db2153c19cf5524ad5c22d
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Baylor Bearsof Baylor Bears, Creighton Bluejays
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Ncaa Basketballevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $31,078
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $30,310
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $31,078 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 42 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Ncaa Basketball is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Ncaa Basketball | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x3a61…b560backed Baylor Bears | 76c | 3,759$2,853 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$906.49 | 86 | 39.5%34 W · 52 L | -5.5wins | -0.06per pick | 46cpaid | -33.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Creighton Bluejays | 25c | 3,631$917 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$917.2 | 5,946 | 49.3%2,932 W · 3,014 L | +163.0wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe60a…6a47backed Baylor Bears | 60c | 2,651$1,594 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,057.4 | 2,579 | 47.3%1,221 W · 1,358 L | -42.7wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xde04…fa37backed Creighton Bluejays | 5c | 2,210$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.64 | 2,254 | 42.2%951 W · 1,303 L | +3.4wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Baylor Bears | 67c | 1,261$849 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$412.03 | 1,910 | 49.6%947 W · 963 L | +30.4wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ed…d7cbbacked Baylor Bears | 75c | 1,109$827 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$281.9 | 1,540 | 41.3%636 W · 904 L | +4.7wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | -16.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfefb…4b5dbacked Creighton Bluejays | 20c | 1,075$218 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$218.14 | 1,887 | 45.2%853 W · 1,034 L | +6.5wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Creighton Bluejays | 40c | 1,062$422 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$422.43 | 12,422 | 49.8%6,191 W · 6,231 L | +118.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x12d9…01bbbacked Creighton Bluejays | 43c | 1,000$430 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$429.89 | 35 | 34.3%12 W · 23 L | -1.5wins | -0.04per pick | 39cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb7f5…c669backed Creighton Bluejays | 40c | 999.67$400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$399.87 | 369 | 44.2%163 W · 206 L | -19.0wins | -0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3c82…e0cbbacked Creighton Bluejays | 32c | 925.16$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 40 | 52.5%21 W · 19 L | +2.6wins | +0.07per pick | 46cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8717…49a8backed Baylor Bears | 61c | 614.75$375 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$239.75 | 176 | 50.6%89 W · 87 L | -2.3wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x89f3…dfffbacked Baylor Bears | 63c | 533$338 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$195.1 | 1,173 | 25.2%296 W · 877 L | -43.0wins | -0.04per pick | 29cpaid | -21.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5942…5641backed Baylor Bears | 61c | 527.27$321 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$206.6 | 323 | 37.2%120 W · 203 L | -8.5wins | -0.03per pick | 40cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x29c0…efaabacked Creighton Bluejays | 39c | 479.33$187 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$186.94 | 1,391 | 44.1%613 W · 778 L | -10.6wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x698b…4426backed Creighton Bluejays | 41c | 424.14$174 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$173.9 | 118 | 50%59 W · 59 L | +2.8wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x24db…1332backed Creighton Bluejays | 37c | 319.36$118 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$118.16 | 132 | 19.7%26 W · 106 L | -8.0wins | -0.06per pick | 26cpaid | -32.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0f8e…3082backed Baylor Bears | 75c | 307.84$231 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.52 | 3,684 | 42.8%1,576 W · 2,108 L | +32.6wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3d3b…b511backed Creighton Bluejays | 18c | 300$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54 | 14 | 14.3%2 W · 12 L | -5.3wins | -0.38per pick | 52cpaid | -76.7%equal weight | 35-0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x9dd9…08bdbacked Baylor Bears | 73c | 279$204 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.14 | 1,951 | 45.1%880 W · 1,071 L | -19.9wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x336a…1915backed Creighton Bluejays | 39c | 254.75$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 28 | 39.3%11 W · 17 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -15%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Creighton Bluejays | 39c | 250$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.5 | 4,848 | 52.2%2,532 W · 2,316 L | +139.2wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2de9…5289backed Baylor Bears | 78c | 240$187 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.8 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.12per pick | 55cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1d94…9100backed Creighton Bluejays | 23c | 228.55$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.72 | 2,048 | 32.7%670 W · 1,378 L | -16.2wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3406…3233backed Baylor Bears | 60c | 166.67$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.67 | 23 | 69.6%16 W · 7 L | +2.3wins | +0.10per pick | 59cpaid | +12%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc42c…42a1backed Baylor Bears | 60c | 159$95 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.6 | 635 | 51.5%327 W · 308 L | +9.3wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x57e4…a93cbacked Creighton Bluejays | 42c | 121.43$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x397d…87a1backed Creighton Bluejays | 37c | 111.46$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.24 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.37per pick | 37cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x99c4…0c89backed Creighton Bluejays | 19c | 105.26$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 28 | 35.7%10 W · 18 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9c4d…168cbacked Creighton Bluejays | 40c | 100$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.21 | 294 | 44.6%131 W · 163 L | +8.7wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0b59…232fbacked Baylor Bears | 73c | 84.33$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.77 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.25per pick | 75cpaid | -31.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfdc6…b20dbacked Creighton Bluejays | 30c | 69.87$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.77 | 349 | 52.1%182 W · 167 L | +9.4wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Baylor Bears | 60c | 53.88$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.75 | 5,553 | 47.4%2,634 W · 2,919 L | +26.3wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc97a…dbe3backed Creighton Bluejays | 27c | 48.28$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.79 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -1.2wins | -0.14per pick | 58cpaid | -35.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x000e…d8d8backed Creighton Bluejays | 28c | 44.6$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.49 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf9ac…64e1backed Baylor Bears | 66c | 30.3$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.3 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 71cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe141…ea2dbacked Baylor Bears | 66c | 30.3$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.3 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.13per pick | 63cpaid | -24.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x62f5…e043backed Baylor Bears | 60c | 28.49$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.4 | 9 | 77.8%7 W · 2 L | +2.7wins | +0.30per pick | 48cpaid | +73.6%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x686a…c769backed Baylor Bears | 74c | 27.05$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.05 | 41 | 58.5%24 W · 17 L | -2.8wins | -0.07per pick | 65cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x742f…d673backed Baylor Bears | 41c | 25$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.75 | 449 | 55.2%248 W · 201 L | +5.8wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdfaa…79a7backed Baylor Bears | 58c | 21.63$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.08 | 53 | 32.1%17 W · 36 L | +6.4wins | +0.12per pick | 20cpaid | +66.5%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x98d0…01a4backed Baylor Bears | 60c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8 | 63 | 55.6%35 W · 28 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Ncaa Basketball and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 2 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Baylor Bears vs. Creighton Bluejaysthis page
- Spread: Baylor Bears (-3.5)Baylor Bears won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.