Other European Leagues · resolved market
Will Moreirense FC win on 2026-03-21?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xe48ead31d8aa55de94b95a44231e21df8d8507eb6435b4a186aec2297617b020
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Other European Leaguesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $23,022
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $23,022 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 38 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Other European Leagues is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Other European Leagues | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked No | 65c | 2,466$1,601 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$864.47 | 2,334 | 46.8%1,093 W · 1,241 L | +14.5wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x85d5…bbf0backed Yes | 35c | 908$316 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$315.6 | 113 | 26.5%30 W · 83 L | -6.2wins | -0.05per pick | 32cpaid | -26.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd3ba…e793backed No | 71c | 849.09$600 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$249.09 | 142 | 62.7%89 W · 53 L | +15.1wins | +0.11per pick | 52cpaid | +19.6%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Yes | 35c | 748.74$262 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$262.06 | 435 | 46.7%203 W · 232 L | -3.0wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked No | 66c | 592.28$388 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$203.93 | 5,604 | 42%2,356 W · 3,248 L | +75.1wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a3…9489backed Yes | 36c | 462.3$166 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$166.43 | 834 | 40.8%340 W · 494 L | -35.3wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb8c4…7385backed Yes | 34c | 405$138 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$137.7 | 275 | 42.5%117 W · 158 L | +10.0wins | +0.04per pick | 39cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed No | 66c | 376.71$248 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$128.99 | 7,889 | 45.4%3,579 W · 4,310 L | +11.2wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x29c0…efaabacked Yes | 37c | 328.99$122 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$122.44 | 1,441 | 51.1%736 W · 705 L | -16.4wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Yes | 37c | 316.32$117 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$117.02 | 2,068 | 48.1%995 W · 1,073 L | +2.9wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x934c…d02bbacked No | 65c | 297.73$193 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104.99 | 19 | 57.9%11 W · 8 L | +1.2wins | +0.06per pick | 51cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2a67…5d96backed Yes | 35c | 285.71$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | -2.4wins | -0.20per pick | 53cpaid | -44.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x660d…56acbacked Yes | 39c | 255.13$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.5 | 265 | 49.4%131 W · 134 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x236b…26b7backed Yes | 37c | 214$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.18 | 22 | 31.8%7 W · 15 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcb5b…f243backed Yes | 32c | 199$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.68 | 641 | 43.4%278 W · 363 L | +1.8wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4133…5e70backed No | 68c | 184.48$125 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.51 | 2,130 | 45.8%975 W · 1,155 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked No | 67c | 162.58$109 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.45 | 2,179 | 48%1,046 W · 1,133 L | -26.7wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -12%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4999…dea5backed Yes | 33c | 157.58$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.42per pick | 42cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd51e…ac0cbacked No | 66c | 157$104 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.38 | 105 | 60%63 W · 42 L | +6.5wins | +0.06per pick | 54cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x514f…ee49backed Yes | 35c | 140.87$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 14 | 57.1%8 W · 6 L | -0.7wins | -0.05per pick | 62cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcf73…0215backed No | 64c | 137.6$89 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.88 | 773 | 50.2%388 W · 385 L | +2.9wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2b85…bf37backed Yes | 35c | 137.6$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.16 | 138 | 42.8%59 W · 79 L | -4.3wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +11.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x972b…78babacked No | 65c | 132.64$86 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.76 | 1,143 | 53.2%608 W · 535 L | +44.9wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xffe7…471dbacked Yes | 40c | 125$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 318 | 60.4%192 W · 126 L | +4.2wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7b2c…af48backed No | 61c | 100$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39 | 670 | 50.6%339 W · 331 L | +11.6wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5d9e…e0e3backed No | 70c | 91.4$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.47 | 178 | 36.5%65 W · 113 L | -18.7wins | -0.10per pick | 47cpaid | -34%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x1248…8db1backed Yes | 38c | 70$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.6 | 42 | 57.1%24 W · 18 L | +7.1wins | +0.17per pick | 40cpaid | +40.8%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x8dec…60c2backed No | 67c | 67.48$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.27 | 38 | 47.4%18 W · 20 L | -2.6wins | -0.07per pick | 54cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf39a…fe47backed No | 69c | 60.47$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.97 | 673 | 48.1%324 W · 349 L | -22.1wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2d6a…8addbacked No | 64c | 43.34$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.66 | 852 | 50.4%429 W · 423 L | +1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7a49…d9f5backed No | 76c | 42.03$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.27 | 940 | 43.7%411 W · 529 L | -10.1wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8935…7daabacked Yes | 39c | 41.82$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.31 | 408 | 50.7%207 W · 201 L | -3.8wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed Yes | 33c | 40$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.2 | 2,640 | 35.7%942 W · 1,698 L | -15.8wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed Yes | 35c | 39$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.65 | 2,543 | 52.4%1,333 W · 1,210 L | +18.3wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x67e6…86edbacked Yes | 36c | 33$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.88 | 149 | 54.4%81 W · 68 L | +4.2wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3392…0662backed Yes | 36c | 29.86$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.75 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -3.1wins | -0.39per pick | 52cpaid | -77.8%equal weight | 39-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xa509…ae46backed No | 69c | 24.03$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.41 | 986 | 53.2%525 W · 461 L | +22.4wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0a8e…05a4backed No | 71c | 21.13$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.13 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +20.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Other European Leagues and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Moreirense FC win on 2026-03-21?this page
- Will FC Arouca win on 2026-03-21?Yes won
- Will Moreirense FC vs. FC Arouca end in a draw?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.