Other European Leagues · resolved market
Will FC Arouca win on 2026-03-21?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x8f3e1e657602c73aba786b2ad7b3221d84f6ab4e18a125a895e76404e3bc6554
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Other European Leaguesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $22,027
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $22,027 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 42 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Other European Leagues is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Other European Leagues | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2005…75eabacked No | 12c | 2,176$264 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$263.93 | 5,604 | 42%2,356 W · 3,248 L | +75.1wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3c80…93b5backed Yes | 32c | 1,563$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,062.5 | 149 | 45.6%68 W · 81 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Yes | 67c | 743.78$502 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$242.12 | 7,889 | 45.4%3,579 W · 4,310 L | +11.2wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd3ba…e793backed No | 69c | 575.55$400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$399.99 | 142 | 62.7%89 W · 53 L | +15.1wins | +0.11per pick | 52cpaid | +19.6%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xfec0…aeb9backed No | 66c | 545$360 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$359.7 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -2.9wins | -0.42per pick | 42cpaid | -100%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x29c0…efaabacked No | 67c | 502.57$337 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$336.54 | 1,441 | 51.1%736 W · 705 L | -16.4wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3d39…a4fbbacked No | 20c | 500$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 36 | 25%9 W · 27 L | -4.0wins | -0.11per pick | 36cpaid | -38.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4133…5e70backed Yes | 55c | 452.53$247 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$205.49 | 2,130 | 45.8%975 W · 1,155 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6070…88a8backed No | 19c | 438.68$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.73 | 21 | 23.8%5 W · 16 L | -1.0wins | -0.05per pick | 29cpaid | -8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x58f4…764ebacked Yes | 26c | 384.62$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$284.62 | 84 | 32.1%27 W · 57 L | -3.0wins | -0.04per pick | 36cpaid | -16%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked Yes | 34c | 344.12$118 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$226.4 | 2,334 | 46.8%1,093 W · 1,241 L | +14.5wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x660d…56acbacked Yes | 31c | 320.97$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$221.47 | 265 | 49.4%131 W · 134 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9055…12cebacked Yes | 36c | 300$108 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$192 | 18 | 33.3%6 W · 12 L | +1.4wins | +0.08per pick | 26cpaid | +16.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked No | 53c | 256.42$137 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$136.73 | 2,179 | 48%1,046 W · 1,133 L | -26.7wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -12%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x85d5…bbf0backed Yes | 33c | 249.74$84 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$166.11 | 113 | 26.5%30 W · 83 L | -6.2wins | -0.05per pick | 32cpaid | -26.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7a49…d9f5backed Yes | 48c | 207.16$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$107 | 940 | 43.7%411 W · 529 L | -10.1wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2b85…bf37backed No | 66c | 155.1$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.85 | 138 | 42.8%59 W · 79 L | -4.3wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +11.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x90df…a209backed Yes | 75c | 146.49$110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.49 | 51 | 52.9%27 W · 24 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xffe7…471dbacked No | 69c | 144.93$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 318 | 60.4%192 W · 126 L | +4.2wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcf73…0215backed Yes | 34c | 142.72$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$94.2 | 773 | 50.2%388 W · 385 L | +2.9wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5d9e…e0e3backed No | 48c | 131.16$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.79 | 178 | 36.5%65 W · 113 L | -18.7wins | -0.10per pick | 47cpaid | -34%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xbed0…3c7dbacked Yes | 30c | 120.91$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84.91 | 328 | 35.4%116 W · 212 L | -12.7wins | -0.04per pick | 39cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2d6a…8addbacked Yes | 34c | 111.17$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.32 | 852 | 50.4%429 W · 423 L | +1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa07d…a037backed No | 21c | 103.32$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.79 | 583 | 20.1%117 W · 466 L | -37.7wins | -0.06per pick | 27cpaid | -27.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf4d5…13eebacked No | 69c | 100$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69 | 214 | 73.4%157 W · 57 L | +6.1wins | +0.03per pick | 71cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdd03…df4abacked No | 26c | 100$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 75 | 29.3%22 W · 53 L | -1.2wins | -0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed No | 65c | 89.97$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.93 | 2,543 | 52.4%1,333 W · 1,210 L | +18.3wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Yes | 63c | 77.64$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.69 | 1,098 | 50.5%554 W · 544 L | -36.1wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcb5b…f243backed No | 20c | 72.69$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.36 | 641 | 43.4%278 W · 363 L | +1.8wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Yes | 34c | 53.75$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.47 | 435 | 46.7%203 W · 232 L | -3.0wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0e41…b875backed Yes | 80c | 50$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 104 | 61.5%64 W · 40 L | +7.7wins | +0.07per pick | 54cpaid | +19%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf5b4…570cbacked Yes | 35c | 41.28$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.78 | 57 | 50.9%29 W · 28 L | +1.8wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +8.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd8d4…3691backed No | 70c | 35.71$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 36 | 55.6%20 W · 16 L | -4.0wins | -0.11per pick | 67cpaid | -21%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5b62…d87fbacked No | 67c | 35$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.45 | 132 | 65.2%86 W · 46 L | +9.1wins | +0.07per pick | 58cpaid | +14.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf39a…fe47backed No | 68c | 34$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.95 | 673 | 48.1%324 W · 349 L | -22.1wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd985…1125backed No | 69c | 29.96$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.71 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xafeb…5cd2backed Yes | 76c | 28.95$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.95 | 17 | 58.8%10 W · 7 L | -1.2wins | -0.07per pick | 66cpaid | -5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8c33…ff7cbacked No | 70c | 28.57$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -1.8wins | -0.30per pick | 47cpaid | -73.5%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa494…4a1fbacked No | 63c | 21.34$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.44 | 63 | 60.3%38 W · 25 L | +4.4wins | +0.07per pick | 53cpaid | +15.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0a8e…05a4backed No | 72c | 20.83$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +20.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf641…7b6fbacked Yes | 66c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.8 | 153 | 71.9%110 W · 43 L | +15.5wins | +0.10per pick | 62cpaid | +20.4%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x89b9…118ebacked No | 67c | 16$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.72 | 26 | 53.8%14 W · 12 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Other European Leagues and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will FC Arouca win on 2026-03-21?this page
- Will Moreirense FC vs. FC Arouca end in a draw?No won
- Will Moreirense FC win on 2026-03-21?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.