Mls · resolved market
Sporting Kansas City vs. San Diego FC: O/U 3.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xe491ec23ec3fa0fd56d3432d0248b7ab6583eaa3ad4e41f45e813e4ca6e054ff
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Mlsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $135,183
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $135,183 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 49 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Mls is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Mls | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xf5f9…87b0backed Over | 42c | 129,670$54,459 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54,458.67 | 96 | 49%47 W · 49 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdc87…7ab6backed Under | 58c | 90,894$52,719 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38,175.64 | 52 | 50%26 W · 26 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 59c | 14,759$8,741 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6,018.92 | 3,012 | 43.5%1,311 W · 1,701 L | -29.7wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc49f…9e05backed Under | 58c | 9,000$5,220 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,780 | 27 | 51.9%14 W · 13 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Under | 58c | 4,835$2,806 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,029.77 | 251 | 49%123 W · 128 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xabf5…cfebbacked Under | 58c | 3,500$2,030 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,470 | 51 | 47.1%24 W · 27 L | -2.6wins | -0.05per pick | 52cpaid | -14%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6027…4320backed Under | 58c | 2,989$1,733 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,255.2 | 17 | 52.9%9 W · 8 L | -1.3wins | -0.08per pick | 61cpaid | -20.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x57a8…6933backed Under | 58c | 1,180$684 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$495.6 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.42per pick | 58cpaid | +72.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3dcf…4eb4backed Under | 58c | 724.14$420 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$304.14 | 44 | 59.1%26 W · 18 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 58cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x33a7…960dbacked Over | 15c | 667.98$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.2 | 17 | 23.5%4 W · 13 L | -1.6wins | -0.10per pick | 33cpaid | -29.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2714…960fbacked Under | 59c | 599.99$354 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$246 | 61 | 55.7%34 W · 27 L | +1.2wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xefce…4e4abacked Under | 58c | 517.24$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$217.24 | 27 | 51.9%14 W · 13 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x219e…14d9backed Over | 42c | 476.19$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 21 | 33.3%7 W · 14 L | -5.1wins | -0.24per pick | 58cpaid | -44%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x5773…ac11backed Under | 58c | 400$232 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$168 | 48 | 43.8%21 W · 27 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdc91…0fdbbacked Over | 42c | 238.1$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 16 | 37.5%6 W · 10 L | -0.9wins | -0.06per pick | 43cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdb12…f057backed Under | 57c | 225$128 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96.75 | 46 | 56.5%26 W · 20 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x236b…26b7backed Over | 41c | 199$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.59 | 44 | 45.5%20 W · 24 L | +5.7wins | +0.13per pick | 33cpaid | +36.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xefde…6505backed Under | 58c | 190.19$110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.88 | 429 | 47.1%202 W · 227 L | -6.8wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed Under | 58c | 178.63$104 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.66 | 1,880 | 36.6%688 W · 1,192 L | -7.3wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe414…c341backed Under | 58c | 172.41$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.41 | 75 | 42.7%32 W · 43 L | -8.1wins | -0.11per pick | 53cpaid | -26.1%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x4f64…4b91backed Under | 60c | 166.67$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.67 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.08per pick | 58cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc16f…0f4fbacked Under | 57c | 150$86 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.5 | 62 | 56.5%35 W · 27 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x718d…2b46backed Under | 60c | 150$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60 | 19 | 52.6%10 W · 9 L | -1.7wins | -0.09per pick | 62cpaid | -21.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2b78…c6b5backed Under | 59c | 147.47$87 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.63 | 52 | 51.9%27 W · 25 L | -2.1wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbf57…ecc4backed Under | 59c | 126.29$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.06 | 27 | 66.7%18 W · 9 L | +2.8wins | +0.10per pick | 56cpaid | +17.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8726…0f36backed Under | 58c | 119$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.98 | 24 | 62.5%15 W · 9 L | +3.4wins | +0.14per pick | 48cpaid | +31.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xdc86…7e77backed Under | 60c | 117.04$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.82 | 42 | 59.5%25 W · 17 L | +1.6wins | +0.04per pick | 56cpaid | +10.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2c93…0fb8backed Under | 59c | 114.18$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.11 | 24 | 62.5%15 W · 9 L | +1.9wins | +0.08per pick | 55cpaid | +16%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3abf…b143backed Under | 58c | 111.42$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.35 | 139 | 50.4%70 W · 69 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7c16…c36fbacked Over | 18c | 100$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 33 | 30.3%10 W · 23 L | +1.5wins | +0.04per pick | 26cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe1f1…3a05backed Under | 58c | 96.01$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.97 | 52 | 28.8%15 W · 37 L | -2.9wins | -0.06per pick | 34cpaid | -18%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2b85…bf37backed Under | 58c | 96$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.32 | 97 | 40.2%39 W · 58 L | -4.1wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa33c…1b33backed Under | 59c | 90.16$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.97 | 19 | 47.4%9 W · 10 L | -1.6wins | -0.09per pick | 56cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf2d9…0092backed Under | 58c | 90$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.8 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +0.9wins | +0.10per pick | 57cpaid | +14.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd155…8250backed Under | 58c | 87.33$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.68 | 21 | 42.9%9 W · 12 L | -1.4wins | -0.07per pick | 50cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3b43…fae9backed Over | 46c | 84.78$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39 | 19 | 47.4%9 W · 10 L | +0.9wins | +0.04per pick | 43cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd079…8db3backed Over | 40c | 80.67$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.27 | 52 | 57.7%30 W · 22 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9b89…99e2backed Under | 58c | 66.02$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.75 | 71 | 50.7%36 W · 35 L | -3.1wins | -0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8fdc…2234backed Under | 72c | 45.83$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.83 | 19 | 42.1%8 W · 11 L | -2.9wins | -0.15per pick | 57cpaid | -18%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x216b…fe46backed Over | 28c | 39.75$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.16 | 27 | 51.9%14 W · 13 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf986…6833backed Under | 59c | 34.55$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.05 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | -1.4wins | -0.10per pick | 53cpaid | -23.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1455…e5cdbacked Under | 58c | 32$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.44 | 124 | 51.6%64 W · 60 L | -2.2wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5046…7676backed Under | 58c | 31.12$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.95 | 12 | 75%9 W · 3 L | +2.7wins | +0.22per pick | 53cpaid | +43.3%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x778e…ccd1backed Over | 40c | 30$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 56 | 53.6%30 W · 26 L | -1.4wins | -0.03per pick | 56cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9952…ceb2backed Under | 62c | 29.14$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.03 | 23 | 56.5%13 W · 10 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3d57…2b4ebacked Under | 59c | 26$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.76 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | -1.5wins | -0.13per pick | 54cpaid | -22.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8bdf…8adabacked Under | 57c | 25$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.75 | 50 | 58%29 W · 21 L | +0.8wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe824…65b4backed Under | 59c | 24.3$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.96 | 58 | 39.7%23 W · 35 L | -3.9wins | -0.07per pick | 46cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xad57…b8d3backed Under | 63c | 17.19$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.41 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +0.5wins | +0.05per pick | 55cpaid | +12.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Mls and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Sporting Kansas City vs. San Diego FC: O/U 3.5this page
- Sporting Kansas City vs. San Diego FC: O/U 1.5Under won
- Sporting Kansas City vs. San Diego FC: O/U 2.5Under won
- Sporting Kansas City vs. San Diego FC: O/U 4.5Under won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.