Mls · resolved market
Sporting Kansas City vs. San Diego FC: O/U 2.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x89fd1427d2cd3457b11b97b741e77d162faef3f5bfebb470256d2a238d0eb973
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Mlsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $5,045
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $5,045 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 35 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Mls is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Mls | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xdc87…7ab6backed Under | 36c | 1,064$383 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$680.7 | 52 | 50%26 W · 26 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeb3f…e8a6backed Over | 68c | 752.72$514 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$514.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.68per pick | 68cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd092…342abacked Over | 64c | 536.15$343 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$343 | 66 | 62.1%41 W · 25 L | +2.0wins | +0.03per pick | 59cpaid | +4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Under | 48c | 435.91$208 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$227.75 | 777 | 51.7%402 W · 375 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe1f1…3a05backed Under | 36c | 375.92$135 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$240.59 | 52 | 28.8%15 W · 37 L | -2.9wins | -0.06per pick | 34cpaid | -18%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x33a7…960dbacked Over | 20c | 300$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 17 | 23.5%4 W · 13 L | -1.6wins | -0.10per pick | 33cpaid | -29.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c0…d72dbacked Under | 38c | 275.18$104 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$171.1 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.2wins | +0.62per pick | 38cpaid | +160.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Over | 62c | 233.94$145 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$145.04 | 251 | 49%123 W · 128 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x140d…a937backed Over | 44c | 224.95$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +10%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x43e8…af56backed Over | 64c | 200$128 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$128 | 25 | 28%7 W · 18 L | -3.1wins | -0.12per pick | 40cpaid | -30.7%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Over | 59c | 193.04$114 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$114.07 | 3,012 | 43.5%1,311 W · 1,701 L | -29.7wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f5…937fbacked Under | 30c | 117$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.5 | 923 | 46.6%430 W · 493 L | -9.9wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5210…2037backed Under | 37c | 116.8$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.13 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7b2c…af48backed Over | 64c | 100$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64 | 153 | 41.2%63 W · 90 L | -14.0wins | -0.09per pick | 50cpaid | -24%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xba5a…344cbacked Over | 41c | 98.9$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.55 | 36 | 52.8%19 W · 17 L | -1.9wins | -0.05per pick | 58cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x418b…a741backed Over | 54c | 92.59$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 97 | 58.8%57 W · 40 L | -2.4wins | -0.03per pick | 61cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf800…bdbabacked Over | 62c | 85.39$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.94 | 35 | 45.7%16 W · 19 L | +1.0wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | +16.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0644…05debacked Over | 64c | 83.47$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.62 | 52 | 50%26 W · 26 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc194…f69fbacked Under | 38c | 82.53$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.17 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.8wins | +0.16per pick | 44cpaid | +29%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf497…5ce0backed Over | 64c | 50$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32 | 87 | 39.1%34 W · 53 L | -4.5wins | -0.05per pick | 44cpaid | -1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7c16…c36fbacked Over | 40c | 50$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 33 | 30.3%10 W · 23 L | +1.5wins | +0.04per pick | 26cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x216b…fe46backed Over | 62c | 46$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.42 | 27 | 51.9%14 W · 13 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed Under | 54c | 41.4$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.94 | 1,880 | 36.6%688 W · 1,192 L | -7.3wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8614…ffc6backed Under | 37c | 40.41$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.46 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.19per pick | 47cpaid | +46.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Under | 36c | 40.13$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.68 | 29 | 37.9%11 W · 18 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | +30.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0f8e…3082backed Under | 61c | 39.01$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.28 | 288 | 51.4%148 W · 140 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6027…4320backed Over | 62c | 35.03$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.72 | 17 | 52.9%9 W · 8 L | -1.3wins | -0.08per pick | 61cpaid | -20.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2b85…bf37backed Over | 64c | 33.25$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.28 | 97 | 40.2%39 W · 58 L | -4.1wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Over | 33c | 30$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.04 | 49 | 51%25 W · 24 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -13.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc770…8dbbbacked Over | 58c | 30$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.4 | 29 | 75.9%22 W · 7 L | +4.3wins | +0.15per pick | 61cpaid | +29.5%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xc3a2…ff3bbacked Under | 67c | 29.82$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.82 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.09per pick | 59cpaid | -23.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa488…91c3backed Over | 65c | 21$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.65 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | -3.5wins | -0.27per pick | 58cpaid | -52.2%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xd9c0…7fc1backed Over | 67c | 21$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.07 | 33 | 48.5%16 W · 17 L | -1.5wins | -0.05per pick | 53cpaid | -7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc4db…7e0cbacked Over | 57c | 18.37$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.47 | 99 | 57.6%57 W · 42 L | +13.1wins | +0.13per pick | 44cpaid | +40.5%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x5045…c44dbacked Over | 64c | 15.63$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.43per pick | 43cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Mls and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Sporting Kansas City vs. San Diego FC: O/U 2.5this page
- Sporting Kansas City vs. San Diego FC: O/U 1.5Under won
- Sporting Kansas City vs. San Diego FC: O/U 3.5Under won
- Sporting Kansas City vs. San Diego FC: O/U 4.5Under won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.