Tennis · resolved market
ITF Guimaraes: Francisca Jorge vs Aliona Falei
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xe4c1ce325c6674caf1ed1e845745aaed19595fa565e914dc7c58bb8b144b2f87
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Aliona Faleiof Francisca Jorge, Aliona Falei
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $3,508
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $3,514
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $3,508 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 20 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tennis | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x70bc…4e16backed Francisca Jorge | 36c | 1,586$575 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$575 | 64 | 34.4%22 W · 42 L | +1.4wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc07d…b1dfbacked Aliona Falei | 63c | 649.51$406 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$243.36 | 2,383 | 55.6%1,326 W · 1,057 L | +49.3wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7547…d158backed Francisca Jorge | 47c | 600$282 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$282 | 7,049 | 39.7%2,795 W · 4,254 L | -20.5wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Aliona Falei | 65c | 566.43$368 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$198.25 | 8,828 | 36.1%3,190 W · 5,638 L | -193.3wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -27.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeaac…d71dbacked Aliona Falei | 53c | 566.02$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$266.03 | 1,865 | 45.6%851 W · 1,014 L | +50.3wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x84bc…4aadbacked Francisca Jorge | 23c | 549.5$128 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$128.35 | 242 | 45%109 W · 133 L | -6.9wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f5…937fbacked Aliona Falei | 72c | 356.5$255 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$101.16 | 4,602 | 48.3%2,223 W · 2,379 L | +34.4wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd034…eecebacked Francisca Jorge | 46c | 332.18$154 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$154.13 | 2,735 | 34%931 W · 1,804 L | -13.2wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5213…6a35backed Aliona Falei | 54c | 269.83$144 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$125.4 | 1,865 | 44.7%834 W · 1,031 L | +36.5wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked Aliona Falei | 71c | 220$156 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.24 | 5,416 | 48.6%2,633 W · 2,783 L | +14.5wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Aliona Falei | 70c | 191.81$135 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.05 | 8,505 | 42.6%3,619 W · 4,886 L | -166.3wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -21.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcd96…11a3backed Aliona Falei | 54c | 185.19$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.19 | 2,274 | 58%1,318 W · 956 L | -10.3wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed Aliona Falei | 63c | 150$95 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.5 | 6,720 | 36.9%2,479 W · 4,241 L | -95.8wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -20.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6e59…7fdfbacked Francisca Jorge | 45c | 105.96$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.68 | 61 | 39.3%24 W · 37 L | -7.2wins | -0.12per pick | 51cpaid | -24.4%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xc4fe…601fbacked Aliona Falei | 71c | 88.53$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.91 | 6,449 | 46.3%2,987 W · 3,462 L | -42.9wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -13%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Francisca Jorge | 46c | 74.51$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.27 | 8,217 | 45.5%3,737 W · 4,480 L | +166.6wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6318…46b1backed Francisca Jorge | 45c | 61.36$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.61 | 5,261 | 28.8%1,514 W · 3,747 L | -19.4wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9663…5b70backed Aliona Falei | 55c | 42$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.9 | 857 | 48.2%413 W · 444 L | +33.7wins | +0.04per pick | 44cpaid | +13%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa509…ae46backed Aliona Falei | 56c | 30.37$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.48 | 6,786 | 48.8%3,310 W · 3,476 L | +56.2wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Francisca Jorge | 46c | 30$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.8 | 1,870 | 16%299 W · 1,571 L | -314.3wins | -0.17per pick | 33cpaid | -65.6%equal weight | 32-0.17 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.