NHL · resolved market
Flames vs. Devils: O/U 4.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xe4cb9810acb6acf02f6884db351d2743d9211031cafe9e92aa06b5e34d837e49
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NHLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $4,532
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $4,532 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 36 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NHL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NHL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x616e…794abacked Under | 26c | 509$132 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$132.34 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1dbe…bbaabacked Under | 26c | 468$122 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$121.68 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x448c…bcdebacked Under | 26c | 448$116 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$116.48 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0d90…1b61backed Under | 26c | 342$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.79 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb988…4b2abacked Under | 26c | 340$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.4 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x057a…ba39backed Over | 74c | 270$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.2 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -32.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4a00…8fbabacked Over | 74c | 254$188 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.04 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.9wins | +0.23per pick | 52cpaid | +9.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd7ca…b207backed Over | 74c | 250$185 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.26per pick | 74cpaid | +35.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x201d…2a88backed Over | 74c | 244$181 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.44 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -32.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9a40…1393backed Over | 74c | 231$171 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.06 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.12per pick | 38cpaid | -32.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4228…f351backed Over | 74c | 229$169 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.54 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | -27.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe259…cbb7backed Over | 74c | 212$157 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.12 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.21per pick | 71cpaid | -32.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x86d6…572bbacked Over | 74c | 200$148 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -32.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdd68…f9a9backed Over | 74c | 191$141 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.66 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.26per pick | 74cpaid | +35.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf213…56b4backed Over | 74c | 185$137 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.1 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.12per pick | 38cpaid | -32.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7506…22f6backed Over | 74c | 181$134 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.06 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.26per pick | 74cpaid | +35.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd4af…2f57backed Under | 26c | 168$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.68 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x41a4…7f85backed Over | 74c | 167$124 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.42 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.26per pick | 74cpaid | +35.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbc0d…bcebbacked Under | 26c | 158$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.08 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf6f5…8e41backed Over | 74c | 156$115 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.56 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.46per pick | 54cpaid | +114.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2c…0efcbacked Over | 74c | 151$112 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.26 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.31per pick | 69cpaid | +45.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x10a4…c178backed Over | 74c | 142.99$106 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.18 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.6wins | +0.15per pick | 35cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0c11…3043backed Under | 26c | 142$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.92 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x238c…0f7abacked Under | 26c | 137$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.62 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfbf4…55f4backed Over | 74c | 135$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.1 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 71cpaid | -8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf5ea…3587backed Over | 74c | 135$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.1 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -55%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3386…b7adbacked Under | 26c | 131$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.06 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf102…1348backed Under | 24c | 125$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 780 | 38.5%300 W · 480 L | +23.5wins | +0.03per pick | 35cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2019…6cf6backed Under | 26c | 125$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.5 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 41cpaid | -46.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0baa…5d15backed Under | 26c | 121$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.46 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe337…ecc0backed Under | 26c | 101$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.26 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4112…5d9dbacked Over | 74c | 98.87$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.61 | 156 | 51.3%80 W · 76 L | +5.9wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | +10%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9033…343fbacked Under | 26c | 92$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.92 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | -59.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc314…7bc6backed Under | 26c | 78$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.28 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.46per pick | 46cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe824…65b4backed Over | 76c | 30.7$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.4 | 355 | 53%188 W · 167 L | -6.6wins | -0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x40b8…616ebacked Over | 76c | 26$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.13 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.20per pick | 47cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NHL and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Flames vs. Devils: O/U 4.5this page
- Flames vs. DevilsFlames won
- Flames vs. Devils: O/U 5.5Over won
- Flames vs. Devils: O/U 6.5Over won
- Flames vs. Devils: O/U 7.5Over won
- Spread: Devils (-1.5)Flames won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.