NHL · resolved market
Spread: Devils (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x692c2ae5e37dd96de5cd2b26658d1d60a2489ea36d1e7d78e7a44d7fb6244aec
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Flamesof Devils, Flames
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NHLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $5,528
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $5,528 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 25 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NHL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NHL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x7760…21f0backed Devils | 41c | 2,449$1,002 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,001.53 | 210 | 36.2%76 W · 134 L | -14.6wins | -0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -16.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf41a…ea2bbacked Flames | 60c | 2,222$1,333 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$888.8 | 919 | 45.6%419 W · 500 L | -27.3wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xecfc…cd05backed Devils | 40c | 1,011$404 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$404.28 | 868 | 52.4%455 W · 413 L | +7.0wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4112…5d9dbacked Flames | 59c | 834.14$495 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$339.1 | 156 | 51.3%80 W · 76 L | +5.9wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | +10%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Flames | 58c | 603.44$350 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$253.44 | 1,230 | 53.7%661 W · 569 L | -9.1wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x84d9…76dbbacked Devils | 40c | 440$176 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$175.7 | 485 | 52.2%253 W · 232 L | +8.1wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Flames | 59c | 242.9$143 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$99.59 | 1,190 | 50.7%603 W · 587 L | +13.3wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xec14…7fafbacked Devils | 42c | 238.9$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 393 | 43%169 W · 224 L | +12.7wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | +11.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1d94…9100backed Devils | 40c | 200.65$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.26 | 1,530 | 51.7%791 W · 739 L | +22.5wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Flames | 58c | 189.02$110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.39 | 2,894 | 51.3%1,484 W · 1,410 L | +58.0wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x21f3…35e3backed Flames | 58c | 160.99$93 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.62 | 594 | 50.8%302 W · 292 L | +2.7wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6008…a80bbacked Devils | 41c | 121.95$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 786 | 51.8%407 W · 379 L | -16.6wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5668…eababacked Devils | 42c | 119.32$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 57 | 45.6%26 W · 31 L | -1.6wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcb6f…f414backed Flames | 60c | 116.61$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.82 | 38 | 50%19 W · 19 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2b85…bf37backed Flames | 59c | 105.54$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.03 | 177 | 50.8%90 W · 87 L | -7.5wins | -0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa8f1…d87bbacked Flames | 60c | 73.83$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.86 | 77 | 46.8%36 W · 41 L | -1.6wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4a86…d3e0backed Flames | 58c | 53.61$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.52 | 916 | 53.9%494 W · 422 L | +39.6wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfc53…6bd3backed Flames | 62c | 48.37$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.37 | 540 | 49.4%267 W · 273 L | -2.2wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6027…4320backed Flames | 59c | 43.39$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.79 | 169 | 55.6%94 W · 75 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed Flames | 58c | 32$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.44 | 860 | 49.2%423 W · 437 L | +1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xda4f…77e9backed Flames | 60c | 31.84$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.77 | 23 | 30.4%7 W · 16 L | -4.8wins | -0.21per pick | 51cpaid | -39.3%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x7f2d…fbf5backed Flames | 69c | 30$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.3 | 272 | 50%136 W · 136 L | -3.5wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed Devils | 38c | 27.94$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.62 | 381 | 47.2%180 W · 201 L | +0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd0b3…091cbacked Flames | 61c | 25.64$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 25 | 60%15 W · 10 L | +2.4wins | +0.10per pick | 50cpaid | +17.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Flames | 61c | 20.16$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.95 | 913 | 34.1%311 W · 602 L | -27.1wins | -0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -22.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NHL and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Devils (-1.5)this page
- Flames vs. DevilsFlames won
- Flames vs. Devils: O/U 4.5Over won
- Flames vs. Devils: O/U 5.5Over won
- Flames vs. Devils: O/U 6.5Over won
- Flames vs. Devils: O/U 7.5Over won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.