MLB · resolved market
Guardians vs. Blue Jays
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xe50df611aeec32640b74bba4b4c259564fe8f7acba5efc668c3e366b146c8ed2
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Blue Jaysof Guardians, Blue Jays
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $10,756
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $12,220
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $10,756 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 31 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xa6a8…5009backed Guardians | 41c | 2,169$879 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$878.97 | 2,274 | 43.2%983 W · 1,291 L | +43.8wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Blue Jays | 58c | 1,446$834 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$611.81 | 9,728 | 46.3%4,506 W · 5,222 L | +32.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xad18…0b4fbacked Blue Jays | 56c | 1,434$809 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$625.1 | 513 | 34.5%177 W · 336 L | -31.2wins | -0.06per pick | 41cpaid | -19.8%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf62d…d3a0backed Blue Jays | 58c | 1,034$600 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$434.48 | 150 | 50%75 W · 75 L | -6.2wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x481b…74c1backed Guardians | 47c | 636$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300.16 | 797 | 40.4%322 W · 475 L | -19.1wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xff5c…ccbdbacked Guardians | 42c | 595.24$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250 | 204 | 48.5%99 W · 105 L | -0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbde5…9c38backed Guardians | 42c | 529.02$222 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$221.62 | 511 | 51.7%264 W · 247 L | -3.4wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +16.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfcb0…c865backed Guardians | 41c | 500$205 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$205 | 219 | 41.1%90 W · 129 L | -19.8wins | -0.09per pick | 50cpaid | -19%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xdc4b…5a92backed Blue Jays | 59c | 339.08$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$139.08 | 2,267 | 53.3%1,208 W · 1,059 L | -12.4wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x89c9…9534backed Blue Jays | 62c | 330$203 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$126.73 | 917 | 49.9%458 W · 459 L | -3.3wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xef75…5d78backed Guardians | 44c | 329.11$145 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$144.81 | 1,358 | 45.9%624 W · 734 L | +41.5wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa9d3…9d4bbacked Blue Jays | 58c | 272$158 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$114.24 | 235 | 45.5%107 W · 128 L | -2.7wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1dc8…4c1dbacked Guardians | 37c | 270.27$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 311 | 45.7%142 W · 169 L | -9.9wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Guardians | 42c | 265.36$111 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110.66 | 2,470 | 52.5%1,296 W · 1,174 L | +17.7wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x24df…e8b2backed Guardians | 40c | 258.34$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104.35 | 1,203 | 44.2%532 W · 671 L | +20.5wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb786…b18dbacked Blue Jays | 59c | 257$151 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$106.18 | 1,591 | 50.3%801 W · 790 L | +68.9wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd9a0…88eebacked Guardians | 40c | 200$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.33 | 283 | 48.8%138 W · 145 L | +6.3wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xde04…fa37backed Guardians | 29c | 193$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.94 | 1,510 | 39%589 W · 921 L | -16.5wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -17.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8b7e…6a9fbacked Blue Jays | 60c | 167.27$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.27 | 2,033 | 52.4%1,066 W · 967 L | -35.5wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x79cb…331ebacked Guardians | 41c | 139.09$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.63 | 475 | 4.4%21 W · 454 L | -20.9wins | -0.04per pick | 9cpaid | -72.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x866d…4d7dbacked Guardians | 39c | 99.99$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39 | 65 | 32.3%21 W · 44 L | -1.3wins | -0.02per pick | 34cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Guardians | 49c | 76.74$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.6 | 639 | 42.7%273 W · 366 L | +4.0wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x72fe…e2cebacked Blue Jays | 60c | 69$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.6 | 519 | 55.3%287 W · 232 L | -2.7wins | -0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4e0a…e4e6backed Blue Jays | 58c | 68$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.56 | 229 | 46.3%106 W · 123 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xad9d…9b95backed Guardians | 46c | 50$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 50 | 42%21 W · 29 L | -4.0wins | -0.08per pick | 50cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3dd4…1b50backed Guardians | 41c | 38.54$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.8 | 2,045 | 53.8%1,100 W · 945 L | +32.7wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa337…9e54backed Blue Jays | 60c | 33.33$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.33 | 944 | 55.3%522 W · 422 L | -2.9wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd0ad…5176backed Guardians | 40c | 30$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 435 | 42.1%183 W · 252 L | -6.9wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9f19…72d9backed Blue Jays | 57c | 29.99$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.9 | 416 | 49%204 W · 212 L | +14.6wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x71c1…e358backed Blue Jays | 51c | 29.41$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.41 | 382 | 45.5%174 W · 208 L | -6.5wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x11d7…52e1backed Blue Jays | 63c | 24.21$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.96 | 809 | 55.5%449 W · 360 L | +12.4wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.