MLB · resolved market
Royals vs. Astros
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xe516760be7cf39a38e6e97a0fca22deb6620f132c0dbcb91c4cc49b4c07064ea
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Astrosof Royals, Astros
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $20,314
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $20,706
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $20,314 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 66 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x29c0…efaabacked Astros | 55c | 1,355$747 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$608.02 | 1,212 | 52.1%631 W · 581 L | +21.3wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Astros | 55c | 1,196$658 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$537.99 | 2,470 | 52.5%1,296 W · 1,174 L | +17.7wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xff5c…ccbdbacked Royals | 44c | 1,136$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 204 | 48.5%99 W · 105 L | -0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1608…a990backed Royals | 45c | 1,106$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 312 | 48.4%151 W · 161 L | +5.2wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x07cb…743cbacked Royals | 63c | 768.25$484 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$484 | 113 | 57.5%65 W · 48 L | -2.9wins | -0.03per pick | 60cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Astros | 57c | 738.56$420 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$318.99 | 9,728 | 46.3%4,506 W · 5,222 L | +32.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdf2e…ddecbacked Astros | 56c | 714.21$400 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$314.25 | 1,530 | 50.5%772 W · 758 L | +20.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc3ec…e987backed Royals | 43c | 459.93$198 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$197.77 | 613 | 46.3%284 W · 329 L | +7.3wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xff34…694bbacked Astros | 54c | 447.67$242 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$205.9 | 5,234 | 56.8%2,971 W · 2,263 L | +130.4wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1d3a…7b63backed Royals | 44c | 333.72$147 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$146.84 | 1,352 | 50.8%687 W · 665 L | +13.3wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x89c9…9534backed Astros | 60c | 325$195 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$130 | 917 | 49.9%458 W · 459 L | -3.3wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x49f7…046bbacked Astros | 56c | 314.6$176 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$138.42 | 237 | 53.2%126 W · 111 L | +6.7wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa6a8…5009backed Astros | 46c | 300.39$137 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$163.4 | 2,274 | 43.2%983 W · 1,291 L | +43.8wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb13d…2e90backed Astros | 63c | 300$189 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$111 | 686 | 56.4%387 W · 299 L | +38.0wins | +0.06per pick | 51cpaid | +10%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x24df…e8b2backed Royals | 41c | 249.89$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.6 | 1,203 | 44.2%532 W · 671 L | +20.5wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdc4b…5a92backed Royals | 45c | 222.22$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 2,267 | 53.3%1,208 W · 1,059 L | -12.4wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcdb1…eb96backed Royals | 45c | 222.22$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 26 | 50%13 W · 13 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +18.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8b7e…6a9fbacked Royals | 46c | 217.39$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 2,033 | 52.4%1,066 W · 967 L | -35.5wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x067f…e041backed Royals | 45c | 200$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90 | 932 | 40.5%377 W · 555 L | +14.2wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x53da…8b71backed Astros | 57c | 176$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.68 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.43per pick | 57cpaid | +75.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9f9a…06d0backed Royals | 60c | 166.67$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 178 | 66.3%118 W · 60 L | -6.3wins | -0.04per pick | 70cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3418…d637backed Royals | 44c | 141$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.04 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8059…c043backed Royals | 45c | 133.33$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 784 | 54.5%427 W · 357 L | +19.5wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4e57…6151backed Astros | 57c | 126$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.18 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.2wins | -0.30per pick | 55cpaid | -56.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb5e7…3c1abacked Astros | 55c | 123.23$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.45 | 277 | 51.3%142 W · 135 L | -5.7wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xef75…5d78backed Astros | 39c | 109.16$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.98 | 1,358 | 45.9%624 W · 734 L | +41.5wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xceca…fcdfbacked Royals | 45c | 100$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.3wins | -0.27per pick | 47cpaid | -70.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x26e9…4a51backed Royals | 45c | 100$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 109 | 40.4%44 W · 65 L | -2.7wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -13%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xef63…96cbbacked Astros | 56c | 100$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44 | 467 | 53.7%251 W · 216 L | -11.0wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0cb4…3e29backed Royals | 44c | 99$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.56 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -3.3wins | -0.47per pick | 47cpaid | -100%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xaf8c…4bc2backed Astros | 56c | 89.29$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.29 | 22 | 45.5%10 W · 12 L | -1.5wins | -0.07per pick | 52cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1637…2fa1backed Royals | 44c | 86.5$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.88 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.44per pick | 44cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5849…f7d9backed Royals | 44c | 69$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.36 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +1.6wins | +0.23per pick | 48cpaid | +48.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe59b…a410backed Astros | 58c | 58.8$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.96 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.46per pick | 54cpaid | +86.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa1bb…d19dbacked Royals | 45c | 57.78$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.4wins | -0.27per pick | 47cpaid | -63.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa337…9e54backed Royals | 45c | 55.56$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 944 | 55.3%522 W · 422 L | -2.9wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe8e0…561abacked Astros | 57c | 52$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.36 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.43per pick | 57cpaid | +75.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb5b6…27ddbacked Royals | 39c | 51.79$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 23 | 39.1%9 W · 14 L | -1.8wins | -0.08per pick | 47cpaid | -21.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x21b9…b67ebacked Royals | 44c | 48.77$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.46 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.13per pick | 47cpaid | -32%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5e42…9003backed Astros | 56c | 48.32$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.26 | 432 | 50.7%219 W · 213 L | +10.9wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf391…73c3backed Astros | 56c | 45.54$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.04 | 295 | 52.2%154 W · 141 L | +2.2wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2920…80bebacked Royals | 44c | 45.45$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 238 | 52.9%126 W · 112 L | -0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x05a4…1e85backed Astros | 60c | 42.61$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.25 | 806 | 80%645 W · 161 L | +173.6wins | +0.22per pick | 58cpaid | +34.7%equal weight | 73+0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x3dd4…1b50backed Astros | 56c | 41.79$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.39 | 2,045 | 53.8%1,100 W · 945 L | +32.7wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x65d8…0cd3backed Astros | 57c | 40.07$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.19 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.5wins | -0.29per pick | 49cpaid | -65%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfdc7…3ec6backed Royals | 44c | 39.36$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.32 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.13per pick | 46cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe21e…4d48backed Astros | 55c | 38.62$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.38 | 248 | 8.9%22 W · 226 L | -17.8wins | -0.07per pick | 16cpaid | -77.5%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Astros | 64c | 37.59$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.65 | 639 | 42.7%273 W · 366 L | +4.0wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7f2a…2aaebacked Royals | 44c | 36.57$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.13 | 94 | 48.9%46 W · 48 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1992…f944backed Astros | 57c | 34.5$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.84 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.43per pick | 57cpaid | +75.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x02c7…3df7backed Astros | 60c | 33.33$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.33 | 551 | 52.5%289 W · 262 L | -8.1wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x16ed…37babacked Royals | 43c | 33.12$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.24 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdd46…b8a5backed Astros | 56c | 32.86$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.46 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.09per pick | 58cpaid | +12.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xefa6…4da4backed Royals | 45c | 31.56$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.2 | 19 | 57.9%11 W · 8 L | +0.7wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3c71…4148backed Royals | 44c | 28.84$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.69 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -2.2wins | -0.24per pick | 58cpaid | -49%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1c73…378fbacked Astros | 57c | 28.05$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.06 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -1.5wins | -0.21per pick | 50cpaid | -35.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf520…0637backed Astros | 56c | 26.42$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.62 | 979 | 50.2%491 W · 488 L | +49.6wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0e80…db21backed Astros | 57c | 25.93$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.15 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x972b…59f5backed Royals | 45c | 24.18$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.88 | 18 | 55.6%10 W · 8 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1013…d0cabacked Astros | 56c | 23.7$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.43 | 18 | 72.2%13 W · 5 L | +3.1wins | +0.17per pick | 55cpaid | +31.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x33e4…7632backed Astros | 56c | 23.54$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.36 | 17 | 58.8%10 W · 7 L | +0.6wins | +0.04per pick | 55cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5308…3221backed Astros | 55c | 23.33$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.5 | 403 | 52.4%211 W · 192 L | +15.9wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd5c2…fed9backed Royals | 45c | 23.33$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.22per pick | 55cpaid | -53.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x897e…6040backed Astros | 56c | 23.32$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.26 | 7 | 85.7%6 W · 1 L | +1.9wins | +0.27per pick | 59cpaid | +56.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x38eb…9cdcbacked Astros | 56c | 22.54$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.92 | 16 | 62.5%10 W · 6 L | +1.8wins | +0.11per pick | 52cpaid | +14.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1781…a0ecbacked Astros | 57c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.6 | 655 | 49.3%323 W · 332 L | -7.0wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.