Bundesliga · resolved market
SC Preußen Münster vs. 1. FC Magdeburg: O/U 3.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xe5347fd9ced1492515e7cdbde91584daff4c0cc356954aa2f7e756e1cd7c9e81
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Bundesligaevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $9,007
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $9,007 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 18 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Bundesliga is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Under | 77c | 1,028$795 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$794.7 | 2,538 | 39.8%1,009 W · 1,529 L | -8.1wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x79fb…c230backed Under | 13c | 938.96$122 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$122.34 | 15 | 13.3%2 W · 13 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 13cpaid | -25.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb4…8285backed Over | 80c | 912$729 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$182.52 | 550 | 58.7%323 W · 227 L | +23.5wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1cc9…f0b3backed Over | 19c | 736.84$140 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$596.84 | 59 | 44.1%26 W · 33 L | +5.9wins | +0.10per pick | 34cpaid | +22%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xbe56…593abacked Under | 19c | 351.14$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.14 | 26 | 26.9%7 W · 19 L | +3.7wins | +0.14per pick | 13cpaid | +128%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8d3d…5f66backed Under | 19c | 325$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | +3.0wins | +0.25per pick | 17cpaid | +155.2%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x476b…30a0backed Over | 30c | 300$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$210 | 17 | 64.7%11 W · 6 L | +2.3wins | +0.13per pick | 51cpaid | +35.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 75c | 227.81$170 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$170.19 | 3,284 | 42.6%1,399 W · 1,885 L | -74.0wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd179…361ebacked Over | 24c | 137.34$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104.34 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6619…703ebacked Over | 37c | 135.14$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.14 | 189 | 58.2%110 W · 79 L | -6.5wins | -0.03per pick | 62cpaid | -2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4488…579cbacked Under | 67c | 130$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.1 | 31 | 61.3%19 W · 12 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8776…f2efbacked Over | 37c | 67.57$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.57 | 15 | 33.3%5 W · 10 L | -1.9wins | -0.13per pick | 46cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x56c2…abcbbacked Under | 67c | 59.7$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 21 | 71.4%15 W · 6 L | +2.3wins | +0.11per pick | 61cpaid | +22.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa178…11a2backed Over | 37c | 54.05$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.05 | 190 | 55.3%105 W · 85 L | +5.1wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6d54…81a1backed Over | 29c | 41.76$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.59 | 46 | 58.7%27 W · 19 L | +4.7wins | +0.10per pick | 49cpaid | +21.9%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xaf15…bc03backed Under | 79c | 27.76$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.05 | 36 | 52.8%19 W · 17 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3e3d…bbfabacked Under | 75c | 17.49$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.05 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 64cpaid | +15.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7ad4…7eeabacked Under | 74c | 16.73$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.38 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.13per pick | 73cpaid | -21.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- SC Preußen Münster vs. 1. FC Magdeburg: O/U 3.5this page
- SC Preußen Münster vs. 1. FC Magdeburg: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
- SC Preußen Münster vs. 1. FC Magdeburg: O/U 1.5Over won
- SC Preußen Münster vs. 1. FC Magdeburg: O/U 2.5Over won
- SC Preußen Münster vs. 1. FC Magdeburg: O/U 4.5Under won
- Spread: 1. FC Magdeburg (-2.5)SC Preußen Münster won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.