Bundesliga · resolved market
SC Preußen Münster vs. 1. FC Magdeburg: O/U 1.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x16d0f42031ba8f1e86667e79f86b939867bede2c815adaad6a8ad52e09b09ccd
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Bundesligaevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $17,127
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $17,127 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 30 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Bundesliga is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x06a0…5804backed Over | 62c | 3,226$2,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,225.96 | 25 | 48%12 W · 13 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Under | 37c | 3,063$1,127 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,127.46 | 2,538 | 39.8%1,009 W · 1,529 L | -8.1wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x96c2…952abacked Over | 77c | 558.83$430 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$128.53 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.23per pick | 77cpaid | +29.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6b97…33bdbacked Under | 23c | 558.83$129 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$128.53 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.10per pick | 24cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6bee…dee9backed Over | 77c | 500.83$386 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$115.19 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.23per pick | 77cpaid | +29.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0287…cdcabacked Under | 23c | 500.83$115 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$115.19 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x77bc…b91bbacked Under | 35c | 302.12$107 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$106.73 | 1,305 | 40.8%532 W · 773 L | -42.3wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -21.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 38c | 288.4$109 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$109.33 | 3,284 | 42.6%1,399 W · 1,885 L | -74.0wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x524c…c166backed Over | 77c | 287.16$221 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.05 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.23per pick | 77cpaid | +29.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf45b…8cffbacked Under | 23c | 287.16$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.05 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.10per pick | 23cpaid | +51.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6619…703ebacked Over | 76c | 263.16$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.16 | 189 | 58.2%110 W · 79 L | -6.5wins | -0.03per pick | 62cpaid | -2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1650…42f6backed Under | 32c | 223.59$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.55 | 39 | 35.9%14 W · 25 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | +5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x281e…c94abacked Under | 23c | 210.19$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.34 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x00d7…7e51backed Over | 77c | 210.19$162 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.34 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.23per pick | 77cpaid | +29.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9df6…c33bbacked Over | 58c | 113.95$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.86 | 22 | 63.6%14 W · 8 L | +2.8wins | +0.13per pick | 51cpaid | +25.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa178…11a2backed Over | 69c | 108.7$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.7 | 190 | 55.3%105 W · 85 L | +5.1wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Under | 38c | 101.33$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.26 | 1,355 | 50.9%690 W · 665 L | +12.7wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1e29…9e66backed Over | 60c | 100$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40 | 79 | 50.6%40 W · 39 L | +1.5wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Under | 18c | 66.8$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.02 | 341 | 44.6%152 W · 189 L | -8.1wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfacd…d470backed Over | 80c | 50$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 37 | 78.4%29 W · 8 L | +1.7wins | +0.05per pick | 74cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2463…f5b5backed Over | 68c | 40$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.8 | 55 | 63.6%35 W · 20 L | +2.8wins | +0.05per pick | 58cpaid | +8.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7c56…0615backed Under | 36c | 39.21$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 62 | 45.2%28 W · 34 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaf15…bc03backed Under | 40c | 29.83$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.96 | 36 | 52.8%19 W · 17 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed Over | 80c | 25$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 1,083 | 50.8%550 W · 533 L | +8.2wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x819b…6a57backed Over | 72c | 24.99$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7 | 20 | 75%15 W · 5 L | +2.1wins | +0.11per pick | 64cpaid | +15.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2e45…efefbacked Over | 75c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 22 | 77.3%17 W · 5 L | +1.0wins | +0.04per pick | 73cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9c78…e29bbacked Over | 66c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.8 | 50 | 66%33 W · 17 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 67cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1c6d…e91cbacked Over | 66c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.8 | 16 | 56.3%9 W · 7 L | -2.1wins | -0.13per pick | 69cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x380c…1099backed Over | 64c | 15.63$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.63 | 130 | 73.1%95 W · 35 L | +9.9wins | +0.08per pick | 65cpaid | +12.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb239…80b4backed Over | 77c | 13.09$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | -2.5wins | -0.22per pick | 68cpaid | -37.1%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- SC Preußen Münster vs. 1. FC Magdeburg: O/U 1.5this page
- SC Preußen Münster vs. 1. FC Magdeburg: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
- SC Preußen Münster vs. 1. FC Magdeburg: O/U 2.5Over won
- SC Preußen Münster vs. 1. FC Magdeburg: O/U 3.5Over won
- SC Preußen Münster vs. 1. FC Magdeburg: O/U 4.5Under won
- Spread: 1. FC Magdeburg (-2.5)SC Preußen Münster won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.