Bundesliga · resolved market
SC Preußen Münster vs. 1. FC Magdeburg: O/U 2.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xacbf3f158fe4d161b9488fdb03593669fbd8757facb01e700a19093afaa42f3b
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Bundesligaevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $34,210
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $34,210 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 47 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Bundesliga is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 63c | 12,522$7,849 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$7,848.78 | 3,284 | 42.6%1,399 W · 1,885 L | -74.0wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x44c5…8d45backed Over | 33c | 10,507$3,467 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7,039.67 | 160 | 45%72 W · 88 L | +5.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +9.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Under | 58c | 3,815$2,230 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,230.33 | 2,538 | 39.8%1,009 W · 1,529 L | -8.1wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8566…c626backed Over | 50c | 2,000$1,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,000 | 22 | 36.4%8 W · 14 L | -3.2wins | -0.15per pick | 51cpaid | -31.7%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8e5a…154cbacked Over | 51c | 986.22$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$486.22 | 89 | 55.1%49 W · 40 L | +4.4wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +11.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0d91…df18backed Over | 34c | 882.35$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$582.35 | 65 | 50.8%33 W · 32 L | +6.1wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | +22.3%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x20c1…df04backed Over | 35c | 598.43$209 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$388.98 | 33 | 63.6%21 W · 12 L | +4.9wins | +0.15per pick | 49cpaid | +27.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xd092…342abacked Over | 49c | 583.97$286 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$297.82 | 187 | 59.4%111 W · 76 L | -1.2wins | -0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe77f…8793backed Over | 51c | 517.06$264 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$253.36 | 19 | 57.9%11 W · 8 L | +2.6wins | +0.14per pick | 44cpaid | +14.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Under | 60c | 353.53$212 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$211.65 | 1,355 | 50.9%690 W · 665 L | +12.7wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cc9…f0b3backed Over | 30c | 333.33$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$233.33 | 59 | 44.1%26 W · 33 L | +5.9wins | +0.10per pick | 34cpaid | +22%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe761…8a64backed Under | 43c | 304.56$131 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$130.96 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +1.0wins | +0.11per pick | 45cpaid | +13.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3454…333bbacked Over | 34c | 294.11$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$194.2 | 33 | 42.4%14 W · 19 L | +1.7wins | +0.05per pick | 37cpaid | +14.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x77bc…b91bbacked Under | 51c | 261.09$133 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$132.83 | 1,305 | 40.8%532 W · 773 L | -42.3wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -21.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe7b8…e32bbacked Under | 8c | 238.29$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.06 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | +0.9wins | +0.08per pick | 10cpaid | +104.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked Over | 57c | 232$132 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$99.76 | 1,681 | 45.2%759 W · 922 L | +6.8wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a3…9489backed Under | 51c | 184.06$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93.87 | 536 | 45.9%246 W · 290 L | +6.7wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6619…703ebacked Over | 59c | 169.49$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.49 | 189 | 58.2%110 W · 79 L | -6.5wins | -0.03per pick | 62cpaid | -2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xba6c…20e3backed Under | 69c | 159.42$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -2.2wins | -0.55per pick | 55cpaid | -100%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x5d9e…e0e3backed Under | 77c | 150$116 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$115.5 | 192 | 54.7%105 W · 87 L | +8.1wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6b23…04a3backed Over | 33c | 141.48$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$94.82 | 160 | 46.9%75 W · 85 L | +4.1wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x718d…2b46backed Under | 50c | 100$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 53 | 54.7%29 W · 24 L | -1.6wins | -0.03per pick | 58cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9cf7…e5a5backed Over | 50c | 100$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50 | 118 | 57.6%68 W · 50 L | +15.7wins | +0.13per pick | 44cpaid | +31.1%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x1b42…7cbebacked Over | 50c | 98$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.50per pick | 50cpaid | +100%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5f39…d603backed Over | 33c | 96.96$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.45 | 67 | 58.2%39 W · 28 L | +5.2wins | +0.08per pick | 50cpaid | +12%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xaf15…bc03backed Under | 61c | 86.39$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.79 | 36 | 52.8%19 W · 17 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdf3d…fd74backed Under | 42c | 85.18$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.57 | 20 | 35%7 W · 13 L | -4.3wins | -0.22per pick | 57cpaid | -43.6%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x3abf…b143backed Under | 64c | 81.25$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.15 | 306 | 47.1%144 W · 162 L | +1.6wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb18c…df51backed Over | 31c | 80.65$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.65 | 106 | 48.1%51 W · 55 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x56c2…abcbbacked Under | 51c | 78.43$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 21 | 71.4%15 W · 6 L | +2.3wins | +0.11per pick | 61cpaid | +22.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x01c7…e995backed Under | 60c | 74.28$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.37 | 1,013 | 44.5%451 W · 562 L | -8.2wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -20.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4488…579cbacked Under | 71c | 73$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.73 | 31 | 61.3%19 W · 12 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x26d3…8a20backed Over | 57c | 68.99$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.41 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | +16.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x051b…09d4backed Under | 57c | 57.89$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33 | 59 | 39%23 W · 36 L | -3.8wins | -0.06per pick | 45cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x97b2…1c44backed Over | 50c | 54$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27 | 56 | 55.4%31 W · 25 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa178…11a2backed Over | 48c | 52.08$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.08 | 190 | 55.3%105 W · 85 L | +5.1wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc770…8dbbbacked Over | 60c | 50$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 108 | 64.8%70 W · 38 L | +2.9wins | +0.03per pick | 62cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1248…8db1backed Over | 59c | 50$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.5 | 44 | 27.3%12 W · 32 L | -3.9wins | -0.09per pick | 36cpaid | -36.1%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1813…4dfebacked Under | 42c | 47.5$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.95 | 183 | 53%97 W · 86 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5d40…7b78backed Over | 47c | 42.38$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.46 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -1.2wins | -0.12per pick | 52cpaid | -19.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8a25…3c70backed Under | 56c | 40.17$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.33 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | -0.6wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x862a…d26bbacked Under | 73c | 39.51$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.84 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | -1.0wins | -0.07per pick | 46cpaid | -31.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0fa1…bf73backed Over | 48c | 33.2$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.2 | 77 | 58.4%45 W · 32 L | +5.2wins | +0.07per pick | 52cpaid | +11.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x04b4…8d0bbacked Over | 53c | 27.06$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.75 | 20 | 50%10 W · 10 L | +0.6wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbb5a…2faabacked Under | 61c | 26.99$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.46 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.08per pick | 59cpaid | +16.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7c56…0615backed Under | 49c | 24.52$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 62 | 45.2%28 W · 34 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5fdb…8654backed Over | 56c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.8 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.44per pick | 56cpaid | +78.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- SC Preußen Münster vs. 1. FC Magdeburg: O/U 2.5this page
- SC Preußen Münster vs. 1. FC Magdeburg: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
- SC Preußen Münster vs. 1. FC Magdeburg: O/U 1.5Over won
- SC Preußen Münster vs. 1. FC Magdeburg: O/U 3.5Over won
- SC Preußen Münster vs. 1. FC Magdeburg: O/U 4.5Under won
- Spread: 1. FC Magdeburg (-2.5)SC Preußen Münster won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.