Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in London be between 44-45°F on November 25?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xe53ddf9b09bd465802c6d069011ca2149eb430f3393b885f441a72d10c5a851e
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $35,301
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $37,962
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $35,301 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 54 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x906f…371abacked No | 53c | 790.79$416 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$415.89 | 2,495 | 69.9%1,744 W · 751 L | +80.3wins | +0.03per pick | 67cpaid | +5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 25c | 524.42$130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$129.86 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x95a1…0fd7backed Yes | 68c | 455.18$311 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$144.2 | 27 | 51.9%14 W · 13 L | +1.3wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc631…9655backed Yes | 61c | 318.38$194 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$124.47 | 36 | 63.9%23 W · 13 L | +4.5wins | +0.13per pick | 51cpaid | +23.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe1f1…3a05backed No | 31c | 311.99$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.79 | 535 | 25.2%135 W · 400 L | -8.7wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -32.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x584e…090fbacked Yes | 74c | 308.81$228 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80.55 | 478 | 34.3%164 W · 314 L | +22.0wins | +0.05per pick | 30cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa877…f204backed Yes | 48c | 284.84$138 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$147.23 | 114 | 49.1%56 W · 58 L | +17.9wins | +0.16per pick | 33cpaid | +104.3%equal weight | 64+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x293e…9962backed No | 11c | 283.81$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.51 | 157 | 59.2%93 W · 64 L | +12.6wins | +0.08per pick | 51cpaid | +26.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3fb0…611abacked Yes | 73c | 240.64$176 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.8 | 55 | 41.8%23 W · 32 L | +2.3wins | +0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x49b1…0f4dbacked Yes | 51c | 232.39$119 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$113.04 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0149…fa64backed No | 15c | 202.76$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.8 | 40 | 37.5%15 W · 25 L | -0.9wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | +16.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9469…6d18backed No | 30c | 199.98$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.99 | 959 | 42.4%407 W · 552 L | +84.9wins | +0.09per pick | 34cpaid | +27.4%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xb4d8…0c8cbacked Yes | 42c | 192.3$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$112.3 | 169 | 24.3%41 W · 128 L | -2.1wins | -0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7943…27a1backed Yes | 74c | 170$126 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44 | 320 | 44.7%143 W · 177 L | +9.6wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4959…a6f5backed No | 50c | 170$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.33 | 847 | 59.4%503 W · 344 L | +41.6wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xefb9…7828backed Yes | 74c | 134.29$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.29 | 55 | 60%33 W · 22 L | +2.1wins | +0.04per pick | 56cpaid | +6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9ac5…6a3dbacked Yes | 77c | 124.99$96 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.75 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -1.8wins | -0.30per pick | 46cpaid | -78.4%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf2ae…74c0backed Yes | 60c | 116.94$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.94 | 157 | 52.2%82 W · 75 L | -6.7wins | -0.04per pick | 57cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd3c0…d212backed Yes | 61c | 101.5$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.01 | 51 | 25.5%13 W · 38 L | +1.2wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | -38.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeea8…6edbbacked No | 12c | 100$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 55 | 45.5%25 W · 30 L | +1.1wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3da3…0fdcbacked Yes | 80c | 100$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 1,024 | 25%256 W · 768 L | +20.4wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | +39.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8972…ab4bbacked Yes | 32c | 99$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.41 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +14.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcbbc…b5d0backed Yes | 55c | 90$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.5 | 4,496 | 19.6%882 W · 3,614 L | +49.5wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x64c7…352ebacked No | 20c | 86.1$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.22 | 175 | 32%56 W · 119 L | -5.0wins | -0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1df2…8b85backed Yes | 79c | 81.69$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | +0.5wins | +0.04per pick | 29cpaid | +14.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8db2…d0f5backed Yes | 36c | 80.7$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.66 | 721 | 25.5%184 W · 537 L | +7.1wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xef1b…4b2bbacked Yes | 39c | 80$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.8 | 48 | 35.4%17 W · 31 L | -2.5wins | -0.05per pick | 41cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5a9c…fc2bbacked Yes | 35c | 70.7$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.7 | 26 | 23.1%6 W · 20 L | -0.9wins | -0.04per pick | 27cpaid | -21.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x89b4…55bcbacked Yes | 35c | 70$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.5 | 930 | 34%316 W · 614 L | +53.0wins | +0.06per pick | 28cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xec25…dec6backed Yes | 55c | 63.64$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.64 | 111 | 72.1%80 W · 31 L | +7.6wins | +0.07per pick | 65cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed No | 34c | 54.26$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.56 | 2,823 | 11.2%316 W · 2,507 L | +17.7wins | +0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5222…d2f6backed Yes | 43c | 46.25$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.59 | 46 | 43.5%20 W · 26 L | -5.1wins | -0.11per pick | 54cpaid | -25.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6d39…cb7cbacked Yes | 44c | 45.55$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.51 | 173 | 34.7%60 W · 113 L | -2.6wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd392…b7bcbacked Yes | 68c | 43.96$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.96 | 17 | 47.1%8 W · 9 L | -1.0wins | -0.06per pick | 53cpaid | -24.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4277…9575backed Yes | 69c | 43.48$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.48 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | -1.6wins | -0.15per pick | 60cpaid | -32.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x51b7…d820backed Yes | 60c | 41$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.31 | 254 | 36.6%93 W · 161 L | +5.2wins | +0.02per pick | 35cpaid | +38.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x017b…4e46backed Yes | 35c | 40$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26 | 18 | 44.4%8 W · 10 L | -0.5wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4cfa…5b95backed Yes | 45c | 38.87$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.41 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.55per pick | 45cpaid | +122.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed No | 56c | 38.3$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.31 | 3,175 | 62.7%1,992 W · 1,183 L | +12.6wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4f81…86fbbacked Yes | 69c | 38$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.9 | 16 | 37.5%6 W · 10 L | -2.7wins | -0.17per pick | 54cpaid | -31.7%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x02a7…0464backed Yes | 54c | 37.35$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.18 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +1.1wins | +0.14per pick | 49cpaid | +12%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe4cf…78c4backed No | 51c | 35.74$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.12 | 72 | 61.1%44 W · 28 L | +2.0wins | +0.03per pick | 58cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x198e…ede0backed Yes | 38c | 35$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.7 | 564 | 34.6%195 W · 369 L | +21.0wins | +0.04per pick | 31cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3f4b…bed4backed Yes | 43c | 34.59$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.59 | 10 | 80%8 W · 2 L | +1.9wins | +0.19per pick | 61cpaid | +32.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed No | 52c | 34.23$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.8 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbb70…c182backed No | 58c | 32.22$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.71 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.58per pick | 58cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x596a…7a0fbacked Yes | 39c | 30.5$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.6 | 113 | 23%26 W · 87 L | -2.6wins | -0.02per pick | 25cpaid | -40.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7dfa…73acbacked Yes | 75c | 26$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.5 | 1,022 | 30.6%313 W · 709 L | +17.2wins | +0.02per pick | 29cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6e96…c863backed Yes | 80c | 25$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.26per pick | 74cpaid | +35.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x631f…8a6fbacked No | 58c | 24.41$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.16 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.58per pick | 58cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xebc0…fa41backed No | 55c | 23.89$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.18 | 85 | 63.5%54 W · 31 L | +2.9wins | +0.03per pick | 60cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9d3e…c49ebacked No | 60c | 20$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.9 | 1,110 | 65%722 W · 388 L | +38.1wins | +0.03per pick | 62cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6d5b…e36ebacked Yes | 56c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.8 | 46 | 43.5%20 W · 26 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdbc6…464cbacked No | 63c | 18.12$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.34 | 99 | 54.5%54 W · 45 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in London be between 44-45°F on November 25?this page
- Will the highest temperature in London be 39°F or below on November 25?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 50°F or higher on November 25?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be between 42-43°F on November 25?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be between 46-47°F on November 25?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be between 48-49°F on November 25?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.