Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 70-71°F on March 28?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xe56d14d4f24ba83961afc6ddefd8b1be23a77f957baea76ef464a8c4488df4ff
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $4,750
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $5,369
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $4,750 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 31 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xb8fc…88e1backed Yes | 30c | 269.08$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.7 | 1,298 | 33.1%430 W · 868 L | +39.5wins | +0.03per pick | 30cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8f12…7057backed No | 70c | 183.35$128 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.79 | 192 | 59.9%115 W · 77 L | -9.3wins | -0.05per pick | 65cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 33c | 171.48$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.44 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 29c | 161.17$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.51 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1361…f12bbacked Yes | 32c | 141.38$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.73 | 1,924 | 33.8%651 W · 1,273 L | +29.2wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8d88…1e28backed No | 48c | 121.48$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.78 | 769 | 24.3%187 W · 582 L | -16.3wins | -0.02per pick | 26cpaid | -40.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x82f3…9f82backed Yes | 44c | 116.87$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.86 | 1,455 | 24.7%359 W · 1,096 L | -33.3wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd80a…c714backed Yes | 35c | 116.23$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.65 | 1,977 | 18.8%371 W · 1,606 L | +8.0wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -18.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc900…a996backed Yes | 42c | 115.62$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48 | 16 | 50%8 W · 8 L | +1.0wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3f0a…bb29backed Yes | 19c | 80.78$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.17 | 114 | 25.4%29 W · 85 L | +6.5wins | +0.06per pick | 20cpaid | +25.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 62c | 76.93$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.38 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc921…d6f3backed No | 65c | 76$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.72 | 153 | 39.9%61 W · 92 L | -3.1wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -18.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x66a1…3de8backed Yes | 36c | 73.41$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.16 | 685 | 21.5%147 W · 538 L | +12.8wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe5a1…3840backed Yes | 32c | 63$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.99 | 1,153 | 27.1%312 W · 841 L | +16.9wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x46b4…72e9backed Yes | 40c | 48.46$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.25 | 75 | 18.7%14 W · 61 L | -3.7wins | -0.05per pick | 24cpaid | -50.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfe82…6611backed Yes | 33c | 48$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.84 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 25cpaid | -67.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4e83…5d73backed Yes | 60c | 41.99$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 46 | 37%17 W · 29 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | +17.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 63c | 40$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.8 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7c15…9667backed No | 78c | 40$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.8 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | -2.6wins | -0.19per pick | 55cpaid | -51.6%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf7fe…1e42backed Yes | 28c | 35.97$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.23 | 344 | 57%196 W · 148 L | +4.4wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3865…fcbebacked No | 68c | 34.03$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.85 | 1,002 | 60.9%610 W · 392 L | -26.2wins | -0.03per pick | 63cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1408…b4f8backed No | 43c | 30$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.1 | 1,605 | 42.9%689 W · 916 L | -86.9wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd04c…c640backed No | 73c | 27.39$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.4 | 233 | 49.8%116 W · 117 L | -15.7wins | -0.07per pick | 57cpaid | -27%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc6c8…d7c5backed No | 70c | 25.94$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.78 | 241 | 49.8%120 W · 121 L | -10.5wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7ce2…dd34backed Yes | 44c | 25$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 107 | 32.7%35 W · 72 L | -8.9wins | -0.08per pick | 41cpaid | -21.8%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x192a…b0a6backed No | 73c | 19.91$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.28 | 201 | 50.7%102 W · 99 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +26.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x993f…35cbbacked No | 71c | 19.69$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.74 | 1,842 | 63.5%1,170 W · 672 L | -42.5wins | -0.02per pick | 66cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc705…0aa6backed No | 69c | 18.72$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.78 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.15per pick | 35cpaid | -27.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2ce6…99f3backed No | 71c | 18.66$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.41 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | -1.7wins | -0.15per pick | 73cpaid | -19.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xaf17…5c20backed No | 65c | 18$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.24 | 1,787 | 25.7%460 W · 1,327 L | +132.5wins | +0.07per pick | 18cpaid | +50.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7112…6d11backed No | 59c | 17.59$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.16 | 349 | 70.2%245 W · 104 L | +8.0wins | +0.02per pick | 68cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 70-71°F on March 28?this page
- Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be 74°F or higher on March 28?No won
- Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 56-57°F on March 28?No won
- Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 60-61°F on March 28?No won
- Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 64-65°F on March 28?No won
- Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 66-67°F on March 28?No won
- Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 68-69°F on March 28?No won
- Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 72-73°F on March 28?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.