Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be 74°F or higher on March 28?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x30dc39799e58b1f35b1978d3b434d2807a81eede8c4c63dfad05d586ca0d7369
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $13,726
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $13,259
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $13,726 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 44 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x1f66…4c8dbacked Yes | 5c | 1,405$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.28 | 2,267 | 18%407 W · 1,860 L | -9.5wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf7a4…f148backed Yes | 29c | 624.77$182 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$182.1 | 1,429 | 34.5%493 W · 936 L | -6.8wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb1f8…2734backed Yes | 10c | 477.75$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.07 | 313 | 41.5%130 W · 183 L | +18.3wins | +0.06per pick | 36cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8f12…7057backed Yes | 17c | 425.31$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.3 | 192 | 59.9%115 W · 77 L | -9.3wins | -0.05per pick | 65cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfbb7…6f27backed Yes | 3c | 399.99$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 600 | 4.2%25 W · 575 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 4cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 14c | 358.34$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.53 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8d88…1e28backed Yes | 12c | 345.59$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.52 | 769 | 24.3%187 W · 582 L | -16.3wins | -0.02per pick | 26cpaid | -40.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf6f7…e0dabacked Yes | 14c | 343.89$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.58 | 1,861 | 23.8%443 W · 1,418 L | +47.9wins | +0.03per pick | 21cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5264…9a63backed Yes | 22c | 257.05$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.2 | 740 | 23.9%177 W · 563 L | +23.6wins | +0.03per pick | 21cpaid | +23.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 16c | 253.19$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.39 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x129c…0085backed Yes | 52c | 231.23$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$119.54 | 52 | 51.9%27 W · 25 L | +3.3wins | +0.06per pick | 46cpaid | +9.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5fe7…6aa1backed Yes | 18c | 222.8$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.87 | 16 | 50%8 W · 8 L | +3.3wins | +0.21per pick | 29cpaid | +38.5%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x8827…5d62backed Yes | 15c | 189.59$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.5 | 1,772 | 50.5%895 W · 877 L | +43.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x66a1…3de8backed Yes | 15c | 177.76$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.95 | 685 | 21.5%147 W · 538 L | +12.8wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 68c | 151$103 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.29 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1a06…15a9backed Yes | 17c | 151$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.34 | 567 | 21.3%121 W · 446 L | -25.2wins | -0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x879e…e339backed Yes | 37c | 127$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.4 | 175 | 55.4%97 W · 78 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd04c…c640backed Yes | 17c | 117.64$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 233 | 49.8%116 W · 117 L | -15.7wins | -0.07per pick | 57cpaid | -27%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9a19…1e2ebacked No | 79c | 100$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21 | 417 | 67.9%283 W · 134 L | +8.5wins | +0.02per pick | 66cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x28ab…2048backed Yes | 15c | 97.96$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.55 | 135 | 31.9%43 W · 92 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 32cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 70c | 96.97$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.91 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1890…d328backed Yes | 14c | 87.19$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.82 | 27 | 37%10 W · 17 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8db2…d0f5backed Yes | 26c | 86.96$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.95 | 721 | 25.5%184 W · 537 L | +7.1wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x066b…8fb0backed Yes | 17c | 80.83$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.77 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1408…b4f8backed No | 75c | 80$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.36 | 1,605 | 42.9%689 W · 916 L | -86.9wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5de8…f004backed No | 75c | 66.67$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.67 | 157 | 49.7%78 W · 79 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe5a1…3840backed Yes | 20c | 63$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.37 | 1,153 | 27.1%312 W · 841 L | +16.9wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 17c | 61.06$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.44 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xd80a…c714backed Yes | 18c | 56.79$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.34 | 1,977 | 18.8%371 W · 1,606 L | +8.0wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -18.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x906f…371abacked No | 76c | 48.52$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.44 | 2,495 | 69.9%1,744 W · 751 L | +80.3wins | +0.03per pick | 67cpaid | +5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x286d…825abacked No | 71c | 47.67$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.82 | 625 | 55.2%345 W · 280 L | -12.1wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9770…d57dbacked No | 74c | 35$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.25 | 486 | 72%350 W · 136 L | +9.4wins | +0.02per pick | 70cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8ea0…b107backed Yes | 40c | 30.08$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 80 | 20%16 W · 64 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x40d6…1935backed No | 72c | 30$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.4 | 45 | 66.7%30 W · 15 L | +4.0wins | +0.09per pick | 58cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xae47…638dbacked No | 77c | 29.99$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.05 | 525 | 71.2%374 W · 151 L | +4.7wins | +0.01per pick | 70cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4d47…10b4backed No | 50c | 28.85$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.43 | 223 | 44.8%100 W · 123 L | -7.4wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc6c8…d7c5backed No | 71c | 28.56$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.25 | 241 | 49.8%120 W · 121 L | -10.5wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4e04…d367backed No | 78c | 25.64$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.61 | 89 | 69.7%62 W · 27 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 71cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked No | 69c | 25.29$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.87 | 1,840 | 37%681 W · 1,159 L | -8.2wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9cfd…dfe7backed No | 63c | 21.23$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.96 | 999 | 61.8%617 W · 382 L | +19.0wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc24f…81d3backed No | 74c | 20.28$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.18 | 985 | 71%699 W · 286 L | +5.7wins | +0.01per pick | 70cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdc3f…f038backed No | 50c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 661 | 41.8%276 W · 385 L | -12.8wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4a77…77c0backed No | 74c | 16.91$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.35 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.09per pick | 69cpaid | -14.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5788…40edbacked No | 71c | 16.45$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.72 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.29per pick | 71cpaid | +40.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be 74°F or higher on March 28?this page
- Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 56-57°F on March 28?No won
- Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 60-61°F on March 28?No won
- Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 64-65°F on March 28?No won
- Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 66-67°F on March 28?No won
- Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 68-69°F on March 28?No won
- Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 70-71°F on March 28?No won
- Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 72-73°F on March 28?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.