Tennis · resolved market
Set 1 Winner: Mannarino vs Minaur
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xe5947befd3b54942e28222acde909a0edb5545f9afbcb077c8dabeda127dd1d0
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Minaurof Mannarino, Minaur
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $3,137
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $3,536
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $3,137 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 26 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tennis | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2529…548abacked Minaur | 57c | 312.07$177 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$135.56 | 346 | 50.6%175 W · 171 L | +5.0wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc4fe…601fbacked Minaur | 69c | 296.78$204 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$93.09 | 6,449 | 46.3%2,987 W · 3,462 L | -42.9wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -13%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x85c3…700cbacked Mannarino | 43c | 291.42$125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$124.81 | 1,688 | 45.4%766 W · 922 L | -10.5wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x80d8…b703backed Minaur | 57c | 241.42$138 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$103.81 | 4,765 | 47%2,238 W · 2,527 L | -82.2wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xff34…694bbacked Mannarino | 63c | 200$126 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$126 | 2,761 | 53.9%1,487 W · 1,274 L | +73.8wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x72aa…90e0backed Mannarino | 48c | 198.41$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.58 | 432 | 50.5%218 W · 214 L | +3.9wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x52be…801ebacked Minaur | 53c | 188.68$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.68 | 307 | 49.8%153 W · 154 L | -6.3wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7462…3ac3backed Mannarino | 67c | 175.06$117 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$117.09 | 1,681 | 50%841 W · 840 L | +30.2wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +13%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6797…e0e5backed Minaur | 58c | 172.01$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.01 | 262 | 63%165 W · 97 L | +8.5wins | +0.03per pick | 60cpaid | +8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb262…9b98backed Minaur | 65c | 154.03$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.03 | 38 | 52.6%20 W · 18 L | -6.0wins | -0.16per pick | 68cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 39-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x8492…f17cbacked Minaur | 73c | 152.49$112 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.5 | 632 | 52.8%334 W · 298 L | -9.6wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2f26…0d8fbacked Mannarino | 29c | 121$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.2 | 1,532 | 40.7%624 W · 908 L | -48.7wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6932…6878backed Mannarino | 27c | 120$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.4 | 868 | 35.4%307 W · 561 L | +22.9wins | +0.03per pick | 33cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6a17…5f06backed Minaur | 44c | 118.55$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.39 | 131 | 37.4%49 W · 82 L | -5.2wins | -0.04per pick | 41cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x71f5…4ccebacked Minaur | 41c | 81.85$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.08 | 226 | 51.8%117 W · 109 L | +8.2wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +18.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5929…4684backed Mannarino | 43c | 74.42$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32 | 3,677 | 54.8%2,015 W · 1,662 L | +107.4wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x167a…d542backed Mannarino | 67c | 73.24$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.91 | 1,837 | 59.2%1,088 W · 749 L | +8.4wins | 0.00per pick | 59cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7a5d…54dbbacked Mannarino | 31c | 67.1$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.74 | 2,417 | 50.7%1,226 W · 1,191 L | +78.7wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8c97…5c66backed Mannarino | 67c | 44.78$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 483 | 55.1%266 W · 217 L | +7.4wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7b25…10aabacked Mannarino | 29c | 37.04$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.7 | 272 | 39%106 W · 166 L | -6.6wins | -0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb421…8856backed Mannarino | 66c | 31$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.46 | 1,776 | 48.6%863 W · 913 L | +29.2wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc2be…af12backed Minaur | 53c | 25.37$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.98 | 2,032 | 46.9%952 W · 1,080 L | -12.4wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf0ad…34cebacked Mannarino | 66c | 24.8$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.37 | 440 | 51.6%227 W · 213 L | -5.5wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0c99…0c88backed Mannarino | 56c | 21.48$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.03 | 9,286 | 44.3%4,110 W · 5,176 L | -245.7wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5df5…c44cbacked Minaur | 79c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.3 | 1,354 | 43.9%595 W · 759 L | -62.8wins | -0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -24.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x26c2…0cdfbacked Mannarino | 54c | 18.52$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 743 | 46.3%344 W · 399 L | -28.9wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Set 1 Winner: Mannarino vs Minaurthis page
- Adrian Mannarino vs. Alex de Minaur: Total Sets O/U 2.5Under 2.5 won
- Libema Open: Adrian Mannarino vs Alex de MinaurAlex de Minaur won
- Mannarino vs. Minaur: Match O/U 21.5Under won
- Set 2 Winner: Mannarino vs MinaurMinaur won
- Set Handicap: Minaur (-1.5) vs Mannarino (+1.5)Minaur won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.