Tennis · resolved market
Set Handicap: Minaur (-1.5) vs Mannarino (+1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x558332e4b46dfebc2f02ec3f1e2d9be7d7a1d55a68b9fa56b2bb0a40219ae577
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Minaurof Minaur, Mannarino
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $16,172
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $17,867
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $16,172 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 65 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tennis | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xaa77…15a5backed Mannarino | 49c | 5,907$2,907 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,906.62 | 344 | 57.6%198 W · 146 L | +2.1wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbf44…71a4backed Minaur | 56c | 4,051$2,253 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,798.44 | 95 | 32.6%31 W · 64 L | -3.2wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7940…47e7backed Minaur | 50c | 2,229$1,114 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,114.49 | 17 | 35.3%6 W · 11 L | -1.4wins | -0.08per pick | 44cpaid | -31.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb238…4961backed Minaur | 50c | 1,877$938 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$938.41 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +1.3wins | +0.13per pick | 47cpaid | +10.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc470…c792backed Mannarino | 47c | 1,042$492 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$491.73 | 1,504 | 35.1%528 W · 976 L | +12.5wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc181…6e97backed Minaur | 58c | 973.1$562 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$411.1 | 158 | 45.6%72 W · 86 L | -12.6wins | -0.08per pick | 54cpaid | -17.1%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5b62…d87fbacked Mannarino | 42c | 962.29$404 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$404.16 | 1,505 | 37.7%568 W · 937 L | +25.3wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa30b…8a7dbacked Mannarino | 46c | 622.16$289 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$289.29 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | -2.0wins | -0.17per pick | 42cpaid | -52.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8f1d…2fb6backed Minaur | 52c | 545.41$286 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$259.15 | 1,534 | 42.4%651 W · 883 L | +20.6wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfd2f…37ddbacked Mannarino | 42c | 499.98$210 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$209.99 | 149 | 33.6%50 W · 99 L | +4.0wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8bec…7800backed Minaur | 50c | 420$210 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$210 | 269 | 53.5%144 W · 125 L | +5.8wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6aa1…a420backed Minaur | 57c | 382.89$220 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$162.89 | 512 | 36.5%187 W · 325 L | -10.1wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8aa1…2242backed Minaur | 54c | 372.41$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$172.41 | 62 | 51.6%32 W · 30 L | -2.6wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5c2a…a4bbbacked Minaur | 54c | 352.28$192 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$160.32 | 217 | 37.3%81 W · 136 L | -0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb86c…b76fbacked Minaur | 50c | 310$155 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$155 | 207 | 63.3%131 W · 76 L | -5.6wins | -0.03per pick | 66cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0129…e3c9backed Mannarino | 44c | 284.68$125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$125.26 | 92 | 42.4%39 W · 53 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2688…9197backed Minaur | 55c | 281.69$155 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$126.76 | 335 | 58.5%196 W · 139 L | +17.6wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | +12%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2903…9203backed Mannarino | 44c | 250.01$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110 | 1,073 | 60.4%648 W · 425 L | +24.3wins | +0.02per pick | 58cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x80d8…b703backed Mannarino | 49c | 226.99$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110.39 | 4,765 | 47%2,238 W · 2,527 L | -82.2wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1c2e…f1c7backed Mannarino | 48c | 206.26$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 127 | 54.3%69 W · 58 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb421…8856backed Mannarino | 44c | 205$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90.2 | 1,773 | 48.6%861 W · 912 L | +28.7wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfa01…f0a7backed Mannarino | 46c | 199.99$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91.99 | 887 | 49.8%442 W · 445 L | -22.4wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe24e…eecebacked Minaur | 53c | 188.68$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.68 | 870 | 54.6%475 W · 395 L | +7.9wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb8bd…478fbacked Minaur | 55c | 181.47$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.73 | 544 | 50.6%275 W · 269 L | +3.1wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x35e7…8331backed Mannarino | 42c | 176.65$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.19 | 2,212 | 42.9%948 W · 1,264 L | +34.4wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6e2f…9123backed Minaur | 68c | 140.13$95 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.84 | 316 | 56.3%178 W · 138 L | +19.8wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +15.1%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xff34…694bbacked Minaur | 67c | 132.4$89 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.69 | 2,754 | 53.8%1,481 W · 1,273 L | +71.2wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed Minaur | 49c | 101.66$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.94 | 1,377 | 16.3%224 W · 1,153 L | -109.7wins | -0.08per pick | 24cpaid | -49.5%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x6932…6878backed Mannarino | 43c | 100$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43 | 866 | 35.5%307 W · 559 L | +23.8wins | +0.03per pick | 33cpaid | +10.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x641f…049abacked Minaur | 55c | 94.55$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.55 | 92 | 57.6%53 W · 39 L | +7.3wins | +0.08per pick | 50cpaid | +16.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8e69…553abacked Minaur | 53c | 94.34$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.34 | 912 | 55.9%510 W · 402 L | +21.9wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x66ac…5e75backed Minaur | 53c | 94.34$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.34 | 930 | 55.9%520 W · 410 L | +20.2wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbd3a…91fdbacked Mannarino | 50c | 86.44$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.22 | 1,018 | 46.8%476 W · 542 L | +1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcee9…8e38backed Minaur | 58c | 86.29$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.29 | 27 | 55.6%15 W · 12 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x076d…8d4cbacked Minaur | 52c | 68.3$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.8 | 4,159 | 52.8%2,198 W · 1,961 L | +66.8wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1527…120ebacked Mannarino | 44c | 68.18$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 34 | 55.9%19 W · 15 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc15c…a6b0backed Minaur | 45c | 68$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.4 | 287 | 58.5%168 W · 119 L | -1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 59cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed Minaur | 54c | 68$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.28 | 7,100 | 49.7%3,530 W · 3,570 L | +107.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa578…6702backed Minaur | 55c | 65.56$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.5 | 1,588 | 47%746 W · 842 L | -24.2wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7de3…d59bbacked Minaur | 54c | 65$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.9 | 122 | 58.2%71 W · 51 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcf08…12a3backed Mannarino | 50c | 60$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 235 | 51.9%122 W · 113 L | -3.9wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb91c…ed66backed Minaur | 46c | 57.41$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31 | 576 | 45.7%263 W · 313 L | +10.3wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7300…e52cbacked Minaur | 46c | 53.87$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.09 | 384 | 46.4%178 W · 206 L | +13.4wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1dd2…9e07backed Minaur | 55c | 51.82$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.32 | 2,404 | 51.7%1,244 W · 1,160 L | +12.8wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8c97…5c66backed Minaur | 58c | 51.72$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.72 | 483 | 55.1%266 W · 217 L | +7.4wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x77de…e67abacked Minaur | 47c | 50.77$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.98 | 625 | 49.6%310 W · 315 L | -4.8wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3fed…eff0backed Minaur | 57c | 48.99$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.07 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -1.7wins | -0.28per pick | 45cpaid | -70.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdff6…0918backed Minaur | 56c | 48$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.89 | 498 | 57%284 W · 214 L | -8.9wins | -0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7366…d1aabacked Minaur | 56c | 47.22$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.78 | 34 | 67.6%23 W · 11 L | +3.8wins | +0.11per pick | 57cpaid | +12.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd75c…49b5backed Minaur | 58c | 43.1$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.1 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.32per pick | 68cpaid | +50.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x27b1…3813backed Minaur | 55c | 40.8$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.28 | 1,168 | 49.1%573 W · 595 L | -2.7wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x133a…504abacked Mannarino | 44c | 38.4$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.9 | 3,412 | 39.1%1,335 W · 2,077 L | -11.7wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | -1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xddf5…aaa3backed Minaur | 55c | 36.36$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.36 | 692 | 53.3%369 W · 323 L | -10.4wins | -0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0b2a…0a73backed Minaur | 55c | 36.36$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.36 | 932 | 58.5%545 W · 387 L | +22.2wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc9a4…3926backed Minaur | 57c | 35.19$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.19 | 591 | 66.7%394 W · 197 L | -1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 67cpaid | -1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2638…8e2dbacked Minaur | 54c | 31.46$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.47 | 316 | 57%180 W · 136 L | -4.1wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe840…733cbacked Minaur | 50c | 30$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15 | 129 | 45.7%59 W · 70 L | -6.7wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1508…0648backed Minaur | 53c | 28.3$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.3 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x29a5…a3c4backed Mannarino | 46c | 26.47$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.18 | 830 | 47%390 W · 440 L | -16.0wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfbe4…f12fbacked Minaur | 54c | 26.47$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.18 | 582 | 65.5%381 W · 201 L | +17.9wins | +0.03per pick | 62cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Mannarino | 44c | 25.97$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.48 | 1,870 | 16%299 W · 1,571 L | -314.3wins | -0.17per pick | 33cpaid | -65.6%equal weight | 32-0.17 edge/pick |
| 0x8d10…940abacked Minaur | 55c | 22.21$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.99 | 457 | 51%233 W · 224 L | -2.3wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5569…c927backed Minaur | 62c | 21.82$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.22 | 38 | 57.9%22 W · 16 L | +1.1wins | +0.03per pick | 55cpaid | +33.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2da3…f258backed Minaur | 54c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.3 | 186 | 64.5%120 W · 66 L | +2.3wins | +0.01per pick | 63cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc6dc…58d5backed Minaur | 60c | 17$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.8 | 32 | 59.4%19 W · 13 L | -0.8wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Set Handicap: Minaur (-1.5) vs Mannarino (+1.5)this page
- Adrian Mannarino vs. Alex de Minaur: Total Sets O/U 2.5Under 2.5 won
- Libema Open: Adrian Mannarino vs Alex de MinaurAlex de Minaur won
- Mannarino vs. Minaur: Match O/U 21.5Under won
- Set 1 Winner: Mannarino vs MinaurMinaur won
- Set 2 Winner: Mannarino vs MinaurMinaur won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.