Lol · resolved market
Game Handicap: TL (-1.5) vs Shopify Rebellion (+1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xe5bd06efcefa47750cff4e9232eaa09c399d9c56768d57f10bc1cf1248a4c034
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Team Liquidof Team Liquid, Shopify Rebellion
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Lolevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $30,758
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $43,989
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $30,758 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 30 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Lol is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Lol | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xe308…25cdbacked Team Liquid | 45c | 10,987$4,954 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6,032.67 | 664 | 37.2%247 W · 417 L | -12.8wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc44f…d49fbacked Shopify Rebellion | 55c | 7,766$4,271 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,271.46 | 572 | 46%263 W · 309 L | -9.6wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8adc…bafcbacked Shopify Rebellion | 55c | 2,000$1,100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,100 | 254 | 47.6%121 W · 133 L | -8.2wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbe8c…9e9ebacked Team Liquid | 43c | 1,853$797 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,055.96 | 178 | 39.3%70 W · 108 L | -2.9wins | -0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -11%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcf60…a6f5backed Shopify Rebellion | 56c | 1,293$730 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$730.41 | 918 | 54%496 W · 422 L | -1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa557…5e8abacked Shopify Rebellion | 2c | 1,200$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 409 | 16.1%66 W · 343 L | -0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 16cpaid | +23.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd3e7…bf64backed Team Liquid | 44c | 1,104$484 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$619.96 | 1,149 | 45.2%519 W · 630 L | +12.5wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7645…3117backed Shopify Rebellion | 54c | 975.25$527 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$526.64 | 823 | 52.7%434 W · 389 L | +41.8wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +15.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1e71…eba7backed Shopify Rebellion | 56c | 899.99$504 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$503.99 | 123 | 49.6%61 W · 62 L | +3.7wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x53ab…65aabacked Shopify Rebellion | 57c | 555$316 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$316.35 | 1,609 | 48.4%779 W · 830 L | +24.6wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Shopify Rebellion | 39c | 413.98$163 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$162.69 | 2,406 | 42.6%1,026 W · 1,380 L | +21.5wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3763…345fbacked Shopify Rebellion | 56c | 391.61$219 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$219.05 | 42 | 47.6%20 W · 22 L | -2.5wins | -0.06per pick | 54cpaid | -7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0d83…272cbacked Team Liquid | 60c | 366.93$220 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$146.77 | 592 | 41.9%248 W · 344 L | -16.6wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2160…bcb3backed Team Liquid | 46c | 210.35$97 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$113.59 | 923 | 42.7%394 W · 529 L | -16.1wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe59c…4da7backed Shopify Rebellion | 58c | 168.11$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.48 | 100 | 51%51 W · 49 L | -8.8wins | -0.09per pick | 60cpaid | -16.9%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xfa4e…5973backed Team Liquid | 64c | 153.65$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.83 | 557 | 44%245 W · 312 L | -17.4wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7a57…968cbacked Shopify Rebellion | 56c | 134.76$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.46 | 563 | 41%231 W · 332 L | -3.5wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | 0%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb7e2…6c60backed Team Liquid | 44c | 120.12$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.27 | 21 | 42.9%9 W · 12 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8088…24dabacked Shopify Rebellion | 57c | 102.55$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.45 | 211 | 40.8%86 W · 125 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0a10…6e92backed Team Liquid | 47c | 79.93$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.65 | 40 | 52.5%21 W · 19 L | +1.6wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +20.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3fc7…62b9backed Shopify Rebellion | 53c | 71.91$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.11 | 38 | 39.5%15 W · 23 L | -1.6wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x156b…c533backed Team Liquid | 64c | 69.19$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.17 | 217 | 63.6%138 W · 79 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 63cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x44d5…1a5bbacked Shopify Rebellion | 29c | 66.03$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.15 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +0.8wins | +0.09per pick | 46cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa07d…a037backed Shopify Rebellion | 38c | 56.33$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.38 | 1,831 | 17.1%313 W · 1,518 L | -236.0wins | -0.13per pick | 30cpaid | -46%equal weight | 36-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0xcb6b…604ebacked Team Liquid | 44c | 40.11$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.46 | 641 | 46.5%298 W · 343 L | -5.0wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6c4e…6c11backed Team Liquid | 77c | 31.9$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.38 | 367 | 49.9%183 W · 184 L | +15.0wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9bd9…084fbacked Shopify Rebellion | 45c | 30$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.5 | 416 | 51.2%213 W · 203 L | -1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1c39…442dbacked Shopify Rebellion | 38c | 26.02$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 495 | 14.3%71 W · 424 L | -70.5wins | -0.14per pick | 29cpaid | -50.5%equal weight | 35-0.14 edge/pick |
| 0xdad6…0d14backed Team Liquid | 45c | 25.71$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.14 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +1.3wins | +0.25per pick | 35cpaid | +27.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa34d…b57fbacked Team Liquid | 70c | 16.21$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.87 | 249 | 59.8%149 W · 100 L | +18.2wins | +0.07per pick | 53cpaid | +8.1%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Lol and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Game Handicap: TL (-1.5) vs Shopify Rebellion (+1.5)this page
- First Blood in Game 2?Team Liquid won
- Games Total: O/U 2.5Under won
- LoL: Shopify Rebellion vs Team Liquid (BO3) - LCS Regular SeasonTeam Liquid won
- LoL: Shopify Rebellion vs Team Liquid - Game 1 WinnerTeam Liquid won
- LoL: Shopify Rebellion vs Team Liquid - Game 2 WinnerTeam Liquid won
- Total Kills Over/Under 27.5 in Game 1?Under won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.