MLB · resolved market
Seattle Mariners vs. Athletics: O/U 8.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xe5ea0348b935384f20a420380fa01eced4222359a2fe787b89e7804024a6ee04
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $7,629
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $7,717
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $7,629 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 19 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x161a…4103backed Over | 56c | 1,884$1,063 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,063.38 | 4,035 | 57.7%2,330 W · 1,705 L | +72.2wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9495…9a27backed Under | 45c | 1,627$733 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$893.51 | 2,293 | 48.1%1,103 W · 1,190 L | -24.0wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Over | 15c | 987.24$147 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$146.66 | 8,086 | 46.1%3,728 W · 4,358 L | +29.9wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Over | 38c | 685.88$262 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$261.53 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8753…85adbacked Over | 59c | 517.68$305 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$305.43 | 1,909 | 53.5%1,021 W · 888 L | +29.1wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Over | 49c | 395.35$193 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$192.64 | 10,846 | 51.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L | +137.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xafca…92b4backed Under | 51c | 392.16$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$192.16 | 181 | 54.7%99 W · 82 L | +4.9wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Over | 50c | 272.44$137 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$137.31 | 9,728 | 46.3%4,506 W · 5,222 L | +32.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbca0…9705backed Under | 49c | 270.57$133 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$137.46 | 8,470 | 52.6%4,459 W · 4,011 L | +510.0wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Under | 43c | 250.47$108 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$142.72 | 8,295 | 47.8%3,966 W · 4,329 L | +72.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x52d9…fb1abacked Under | 41c | 235$96 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$139.45 | 996 | 24.6%245 W · 751 L | -70.1wins | -0.07per pick | 32cpaid | -24.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa8f3…e544backed Over | 51c | 200$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102 | 1,435 | 50%717 W · 718 L | +25.8wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed Under | 41c | 164$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96.76 | 2,296 | 49.7%1,141 W · 1,155 L | +37.8wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc546…058ebacked Over | 60c | 90$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.8 | 5,127 | 54.7%2,805 W · 2,322 L | +232.0wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbe05…c67cbacked Under | 59c | 67.88$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.88 | 34 | 47.1%16 W · 18 L | -4.2wins | -0.12per pick | 59cpaid | -24.6%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x066f…b576backed Under | 41c | 53.68$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.67 | 3,832 | 42.2%1,619 W · 2,213 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3563…a0a2backed Under | 44c | 29.11$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.3 | 2,223 | 55.4%1,231 W · 992 L | +73.9wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x66c1…62babacked Under | 45c | 23.04$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.67 | 18 | 44.4%8 W · 10 L | +1.3wins | +0.07per pick | 37cpaid | +14.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x41c3…4d56backed Over | 56c | 18$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.08 | 34 | 58.8%20 W · 14 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 59cpaid | -6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 12 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Seattle Mariners vs. Athletics: O/U 8.5this page
- Seattle Mariners vs. AthleticsSeattle Mariners won
- Seattle Mariners vs. Athletics: O/U 10.5Under won
- Seattle Mariners vs. Athletics: O/U 11.5Under won
- Seattle Mariners vs. Athletics: O/U 6.5Under won
- Seattle Mariners vs. Athletics: O/U 7.5Under won
- Seattle Mariners vs. Athletics: O/U 9.5Under won
- Spread: Athletics (-1.5)Seattle Mariners won
- Spread: Seattle Mariners (-1.5)Seattle Mariners won
- Spread: Seattle Mariners (-2.5)Seattle Mariners won
- Spread: Seattle Mariners (-3.5)Athletics won
- Spread: Seattle Mariners (-4.5)Athletics won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.