MLB · resolved market
Spread: Seattle Mariners (-3.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x4dddfe7d41d205f840faa36f47480f30b6ade96067db4ce6620a84373bc69449
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Athleticsof Seattle Mariners, Athletics
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $53,752
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $53,911
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $53,752 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 61 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x7634…600dbacked Seattle Mariners | 61c | 18,000$11,062 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11,061.88 | 603 | 50.1%302 W · 301 L | -10.0wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Athletics | 33c | 15,223$5,090 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10,133.51 | 10,846 | 51.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L | +137.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Seattle Mariners | 66c | 4,600$3,059 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,058.51 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbca0…9705backed Athletics | 37c | 4,030$1,494 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,535.72 | 8,470 | 52.6%4,459 W · 4,011 L | +510.0wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf68a…5b1bbacked Athletics | 41c | 2,994$1,228 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,766.46 | 1,151 | 49.2%566 W · 585 L | -0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9495…9a27backed Athletics | 41c | 1,899$770 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,129.48 | 2,293 | 48.1%1,103 W · 1,190 L | -24.0wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Seattle Mariners | 48c | 1,672$805 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$804.84 | 8,086 | 46.1%3,728 W · 4,358 L | +29.9wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xff34…694bbacked Athletics | 40c | 1,190$476 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$714 | 5,234 | 56.8%2,971 W · 2,263 L | +130.4wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Seattle Mariners | 38c | 1,134$434 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$433.76 | 11,356 | 52.9%6,002 W · 5,354 L | +209.6wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x161a…4103backed Athletics | 48c | 1,076$517 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$559.33 | 4,035 | 57.7%2,330 W · 1,705 L | +72.2wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5d1d…afd2backed Seattle Mariners | 64c | 850.46$544 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$544.3 | 1,106 | 48.7%539 W · 567 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x86fb…03d4backed Seattle Mariners | 64c | 844.57$541 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$540.52 | 1,215 | 47.6%578 W · 637 L | -19.4wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4259…77c1backed Athletics | 41c | 712.36$291 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$421.8 | 2,243 | 57.6%1,293 W · 950 L | +37.1wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa623…a4febacked Seattle Mariners | 67c | 641$427 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$427.25 | 1,119 | 45.5%509 W · 610 L | +16.9wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Athletics | 32c | 473.33$152 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$321.35 | 9,728 | 46.3%4,506 W · 5,222 L | +32.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa676…a4c5backed Athletics | 37c | 424$157 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$267.12 | 69 | 36.2%25 W · 44 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 35cpaid | +41.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5c18…2f76backed Seattle Mariners | 67c | 408$273 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$273.36 | 570 | 46.8%267 W · 303 L | +14.0wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb0ee…2e1dbacked Seattle Mariners | 43c | 345.89$149 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$148.73 | 129 | 40.3%52 W · 77 L | -3.9wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Seattle Mariners | 48c | 330.37$159 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$159.49 | 8,295 | 47.8%3,966 W · 4,329 L | +72.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbf9c…3648backed Athletics | 40c | 245.63$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$147.38 | 1,733 | 49%849 W · 884 L | +6.9wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2792…c4f6backed Athletics | 40c | 245.63$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$147.38 | 739 | 49.8%368 W · 371 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbe88…67a8backed Athletics | 40c | 245.63$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$147.38 | 970 | 50.7%492 W · 478 L | +13.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x37c1…8de1backed Athletics | 37c | 202.7$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$127.7 | 639 | 43.3%277 W · 362 L | +1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc718…64a8backed Seattle Mariners | 65c | 180.16$117 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$117.08 | 1,083 | 56.3%610 W · 473 L | +13.7wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3cad…92f0backed Athletics | 38c | 123.86$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.25 | 475 | 49.7%236 W · 239 L | +17.4wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x891d…b19fbacked Seattle Mariners | 67c | 114.56$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.38 | 127 | 46.5%59 W · 68 L | -6.2wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -16%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed Athletics | 35c | 109.03$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.71 | 4,477 | 48.8%2,186 W · 2,291 L | -47.4wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfe1e…7ee3backed Seattle Mariners | 52c | 100$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52 | 16 | 50%8 W · 8 L | -2.1wins | -0.13per pick | 63cpaid | -28.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1980…3340backed Athletics | 39c | 88.21$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.81 | 324 | 50.9%165 W · 159 L | -2.4wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc546…058ebacked Seattle Mariners | 32c | 85.7$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.42 | 5,126 | 54.7%2,804 W · 2,322 L | +231.6wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe911…3d4ebacked Seattle Mariners | 67c | 79.96$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.57 | 1,722 | 50.3%867 W · 855 L | +55.4wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x93ac…2761backed Athletics | 40c | 76.82$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.09 | 2,583 | 61.4%1,587 W · 996 L | +70.9wins | +0.03per pick | 59cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc1b5…c8f8backed Athletics | 36c | 71$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.26 | 1,708 | 49.9%852 W · 856 L | -17.8wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdc86…7e77backed Athletics | 35c | 68.68$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.99 | 694 | 47.6%330 W · 364 L | -9.8wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf874…def4backed Athletics | 43c | 58.14$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.14 | 296 | 56.1%166 W · 130 L | +5.7wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x948b…a188backed Athletics | 37c | 49.43$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.14 | 946 | 48.9%463 W · 483 L | +4.3wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x133a…504abacked Seattle Mariners | 66c | 45.45$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 546 | 51.3%280 W · 266 L | +29.8wins | +0.05per pick | 46cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf898…e720backed Seattle Mariners | 48c | 45.37$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.85 | 6,302 | 48.3%3,041 W · 3,261 L | +181.9wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0dcb…95afbacked Seattle Mariners | 65c | 44.61$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29 | 24 | 41.7%10 W · 14 L | -2.5wins | -0.11per pick | 52cpaid | -13.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa04d…1488backed Seattle Mariners | 39c | 40$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.6 | 447 | 37.4%167 W · 280 L | -24.1wins | -0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3894…decfbacked Athletics | 39c | 37.52$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.89 | 375 | 51.2%192 W · 183 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xde1b…5710backed Athletics | 40c | 36.83$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.1 | 101 | 45.5%46 W · 55 L | -4.5wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -16.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3fd6…1733backed Seattle Mariners | 64c | 35$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.36 | 29 | 34.5%10 W · 19 L | -3.9wins | -0.13per pick | 48cpaid | -39.1%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4ae3…93c3backed Seattle Mariners | 63c | 34.36$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.78 | 60 | 65%39 W · 21 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x61d3…189abacked Seattle Mariners | 75c | 33.79$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.34 | 238 | 54.2%129 W · 109 L | +11.4wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +17.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcf5e…95e3backed Seattle Mariners | 75c | 33.79$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.34 | 267 | 52.8%141 W · 126 L | +1.7wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2fe6…1d65backed Seattle Mariners | 61c | 31.5$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.19 | 85 | 44.7%38 W · 47 L | -6.1wins | -0.07per pick | 52cpaid | -15.2%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5d02…8c5dbacked Seattle Mariners | 64c | 31.03$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.86 | 30 | 70%21 W · 9 L | +3.1wins | +0.10per pick | 60cpaid | +17.8%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x27b1…6a0bbacked Seattle Mariners | 67c | 29.48$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.65 | 469 | 52.5%246 W · 223 L | -4.1wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0d5f…1171backed Athletics | 59c | 29.28$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12 | 580 | 54.5%316 W · 264 L | +17.3wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x692c…aadebacked Seattle Mariners | 61c | 27.64$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.86 | 32 | 37.5%12 W · 20 L | -2.1wins | -0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x75dc…4f82backed Seattle Mariners | 75c | 27.03$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.27 | 304 | 54.3%165 W · 139 L | +6.9wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x58e4…a569backed Seattle Mariners | 61c | 26.82$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.42 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -2.0wins | -0.41per pick | 61cpaid | -72.6%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x333d…e8b7backed Seattle Mariners | 58c | 25$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.5 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -0.6wins | -0.06per pick | 46cpaid | -22.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc37e…9e64backed Seattle Mariners | 67c | 24.2$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.13 | 295 | 53.2%157 W · 138 L | +7.9wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x32ed…f960backed Seattle Mariners | 46c | 22.82$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 6,116 | 55.3%3,385 W · 2,731 L | +344.6wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x18d2…e9c3backed Seattle Mariners | 64c | 21.31$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.65 | 107 | 68.2%73 W · 34 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x260b…aa9ebacked Athletics | 51c | 21.07$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.33 | 125 | 55.2%69 W · 56 L | +9.7wins | +0.08per pick | 47cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6b23…04a3backed Athletics | 59c | 18.98$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.72 | 3,456 | 51.2%1,771 W · 1,685 L | +107.7wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked Athletics | 55c | 18.41$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.29 | 5,786 | 43.6%2,524 W · 3,262 L | -192.2wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x32cc…68b3backed Seattle Mariners | 66c | 17.88$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.89 | 1,269 | 51.1%648 W · 621 L | +23.4wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 12 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Seattle Mariners (-3.5)this page
- Seattle Mariners vs. AthleticsSeattle Mariners won
- Seattle Mariners vs. Athletics: O/U 10.5Under won
- Seattle Mariners vs. Athletics: O/U 11.5Under won
- Seattle Mariners vs. Athletics: O/U 6.5Under won
- Seattle Mariners vs. Athletics: O/U 7.5Under won
- Seattle Mariners vs. Athletics: O/U 8.5Under won
- Seattle Mariners vs. Athletics: O/U 9.5Under won
- Spread: Athletics (-1.5)Seattle Mariners won
- Spread: Seattle Mariners (-1.5)Seattle Mariners won
- Spread: Seattle Mariners (-2.5)Seattle Mariners won
- Spread: Seattle Mariners (-4.5)Athletics won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.