Dota2 · resolved market
Dota 2: Team Falcons vs Virtus.pro - Game 1 Winner
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xe616f77d6d3984201b83e87e7cc5cb2219fbfa78eba59cb93403ab379307aa52
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Team Falconsof Team Falcons, Virtus.pro
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Dota2every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $47,333
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $54,087
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $47,333 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 41 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Dota2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Dota2 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xf9b5…09eebacked Team Falcons | 66c | 8,388$5,494 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,893.87 | 551 | 57%314 W · 237 L | +17.4wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6218…f388backed Virtus.pro | 37c | 8,356$3,119 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,119.42 | 17 | 35.3%6 W · 11 L | -1.1wins | -0.07per pick | 42cpaid | -23.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xef26…05babacked Virtus.pro | 35c | 6,426$2,244 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,244.24 | 254 | 46.1%117 W · 137 L | +11.9wins | +0.05per pick | 41cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2219…a5e9backed Virtus.pro | 2c | 5,700$112 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$112 | 32 | 0%0 W · 32 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6683…de6bbacked Team Falcons | 74c | 3,000$2,220 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$780 | 35 | 57.1%20 W · 15 L | -2.4wins | -0.07per pick | 64cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdcfe…44b5backed Team Falcons | 64c | 2,415$1,539 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$875.97 | 328 | 54.9%180 W · 148 L | +11.8wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5165…175bbacked Team Falcons | 64c | 1,749$1,126 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$623.48 | 17 | 35.3%6 W · 11 L | -1.9wins | -0.11per pick | 47cpaid | -43.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x033e…1bb9backed Virtus.pro | 31c | 1,414$438 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$438.47 | 568 | 48.8%277 W · 291 L | -1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Team Falcons | 63c | 1,334$836 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$498.18 | 2,012 | 44.2%889 W · 1,123 L | +36.6wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd06c…cdafbacked Virtus.pro | 35c | 1,022$360 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$360 | 1,186 | 43.2%512 W · 674 L | +42.2wins | +0.04per pick | 40cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xacf6…41fcbacked Virtus.pro | 37c | 902.99$331 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$331.42 | 606 | 46.9%284 W · 322 L | +10.5wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Virtus.pro | 30c | 641.55$189 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$189.41 | 2,378 | 47.2%1,123 W · 1,255 L | +15.8wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1f4f…46c2backed Team Falcons | 65c | 530$344 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$185.6 | 360 | 54.4%196 W · 164 L | +12.1wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x16ce…eba1backed Virtus.pro | 6c | 500$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.3 | 613 | 2.1%13 W · 600 L | -23.4wins | -0.04per pick | 6cpaid | -76.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xaaa6…f3b0backed Team Falcons | 73c | 471.4$344 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$127.08 | 16 | 50%8 W · 8 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Team Falcons | 68c | 416.66$283 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$133.98 | 738 | 41.7%308 W · 430 L | -5.2wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe2d0…6078backed Team Falcons | 67c | 400$268 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$132 | 42 | 54.8%23 W · 19 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe06c…62aebacked Virtus.pro | 31c | 322.58$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 33 | 63.6%21 W · 12 L | +1.5wins | +0.05per pick | 59cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x57d5…0bbdbacked Virtus.pro | 29c | 250.03$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.12 | 531 | 39.5%210 W · 321 L | -37.2wins | -0.07per pick | 47cpaid | -29.6%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe42b…7ea9backed Virtus.pro | 20c | 249.46$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.92 | 465 | 35.1%163 W · 302 L | +22.9wins | +0.05per pick | 30cpaid | +18.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb4f9…32b1backed Virtus.pro | 24c | 210$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.7 | 312 | 45.8%143 W · 169 L | +10.2wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6dc0…699abacked Virtus.pro | 24c | 200$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48 | 641 | 23.4%150 W · 491 L | -18.6wins | -0.03per pick | 26cpaid | -22.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x56fc…affbbacked Team Falcons | 64c | 200$128 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72 | 255 | 47.8%122 W · 133 L | -4.5wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc65c…ea39backed Virtus.pro | 25c | 191.57$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.89 | 19 | 52.6%10 W · 9 L | +2.1wins | +0.11per pick | 42cpaid | +27.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x28ad…0614backed Virtus.pro | 15c | 190.97$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.4 | 35 | 40%14 W · 21 L | -2.0wins | -0.06per pick | 46cpaid | -28%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc954…642fbacked Team Falcons | 74c | 172$127 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.72 | 161 | 55.3%89 W · 72 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x95d6…9aeabacked Virtus.pro | 27c | 150$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.9 | 121 | 32.2%39 W · 82 L | -8.6wins | -0.07per pick | 39cpaid | -26.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf32d…bbbbbacked Team Falcons | 79c | 126$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.46 | 610 | 57.9%353 W · 257 L | +2.8wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x802e…6c06backed Virtus.pro | 33c | 110.56$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.66 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +1.0wins | +0.20per pick | 40cpaid | +55.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5a05…4c5abacked Team Falcons | 68c | 100$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32 | 94 | 78.7%74 W · 20 L | +13.0wins | +0.14per pick | 65cpaid | +20.9%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x1af1…7b88backed Virtus.pro | 28c | 75$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 27 | 40.7%11 W · 16 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -24.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x13c6…ff7dbacked Team Falcons | 74c | 60$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.6 | 39 | 35.9%14 W · 25 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x047a…941ebacked Team Falcons | 64c | 57.81$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.81 | 236 | 40.7%96 W · 140 L | -10.6wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x30db…07c3backed Virtus.pro | 28c | 53.57$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 544 | 45.8%249 W · 295 L | -10.5wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x687c…8c91backed Team Falcons | 60c | 50$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 142 | 54.2%77 W · 65 L | +7.2wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x425f…0f7abacked Team Falcons | 74c | 40.54$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.54 | 181 | 54.7%99 W · 82 L | -5.0wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0f3a…7dcbbacked Team Falcons | 72c | 34.58$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.68 | 209 | 52.6%110 W · 99 L | -7.3wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc393…590abacked Team Falcons | 64c | 31.25$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.25 | 238 | 49.6%118 W · 120 L | -6.9wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2a10…cf6cbacked Virtus.pro | 32c | 31.25$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 25 | 44%11 W · 14 L | +2.2wins | +0.09per pick | 35cpaid | +19.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Team Falcons | 75c | 23.13$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.78 | 869 | 49%426 W · 443 L | -3.5wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -15%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x00f1…7be0backed Team Falcons | 74c | 15$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.9 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.26per pick | 74cpaid | +35.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Dota2 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Dota 2: Team Falcons vs Virtus.pro - Game 1 Winnerthis page
- Dota 2: Team Falcons vs Virtus.pro (BO3)Team Falcons won
- Dota 2: Team Falcons vs Virtus.pro - Game 2 WinnerVirtus.pro won
- Games Total: O/U 2.5Over won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.