Dota2 · resolved market
Dota 2: Team Falcons vs Virtus.pro - Game 2 Winner
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xa58261dd52b9e3126685c54993be662300b13af0dcddc7e5f75986a8d618adcf
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Virtus.proof Team Falcons, Virtus.pro
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Dota2every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $55,816
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $66,684
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $55,816 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 52 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Dota2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Dota2 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xf9b5…09eebacked Virtus.pro | 56c | 12,960$7,262 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,698.83 | 551 | 57%314 W · 237 L | +17.4wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6218…f388backed Team Falcons | 39c | 9,881$3,898 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,898.3 | 17 | 35.3%6 W · 11 L | -1.1wins | -0.07per pick | 42cpaid | -23.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2219…a5e9backed Team Falcons | 2c | 5,700$112 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$112 | 32 | 0%0 W · 32 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe06c…62aebacked Virtus.pro | 63c | 3,073$1,941 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,131.23 | 33 | 63.6%21 W · 12 L | +1.5wins | +0.05per pick | 59cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xef26…05babacked Virtus.pro | 59c | 2,401$1,417 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$983.32 | 254 | 46.1%117 W · 137 L | +11.9wins | +0.05per pick | 41cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcb30…302abacked Team Falcons | 38c | 1,579$600 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$600 | 104 | 51%53 W · 51 L | -3.6wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd06c…cdafbacked Virtus.pro | 29c | 1,468$420 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,047.57 | 1,186 | 43.2%512 W · 674 L | +42.2wins | +0.04per pick | 40cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x762d…45a6backed Team Falcons | 59c | 1,440$849 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$849.43 | 99 | 55.6%55 W · 44 L | +8.8wins | +0.09per pick | 47cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xfc3e…776bbacked Team Falcons | 79c | 1,401$1,107 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,106.79 | 192 | 51.6%99 W · 93 L | +3.9wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Team Falcons | 48c | 1,355$653 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$652.68 | 738 | 41.7%308 W · 430 L | -5.2wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdcfe…44b5backed Virtus.pro | 21c | 1,260$261 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$999.63 | 328 | 54.9%180 W · 148 L | +11.8wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc3d8…e0e6backed Team Falcons | 42c | 1,151$483 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$483.32 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.18per pick | 48cpaid | +67.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf802…d91dbacked Team Falcons | 61c | 819.67$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 120 | 50.8%61 W · 59 L | -2.4wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5165…175bbacked Team Falcons | 61c | 819.05$503 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$502.87 | 17 | 35.3%6 W · 11 L | -1.9wins | -0.11per pick | 47cpaid | -43.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe99e…0084backed Team Falcons | 6c | 603.39$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.2 | 876 | 45.7%400 W · 476 L | -4.7wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6bea…5d50backed Team Falcons | 48c | 558.4$266 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$265.57 | 477 | 48.6%232 W · 245 L | +6.9wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Team Falcons | 59c | 469.96$275 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$275.26 | 2,012 | 44.2%889 W · 1,123 L | +36.6wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe089…f441backed Virtus.pro | 30c | 433.33$130 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$303.33 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.08per pick | 58cpaid | +32.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2752…8ce3backed Virtus.pro | 80c | 382.56$306 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.95 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -1.9wins | -0.27per pick | 70cpaid | -39.7%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x82bf…de71backed Team Falcons | 51c | 378.12$193 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$193.44 | 547 | 53.6%293 W · 254 L | +22.9wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1f4f…46c2backed Team Falcons | 59c | 300$177 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$177 | 360 | 54.4%196 W · 164 L | +12.1wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x57d5…0bbdbacked Virtus.pro | 16c | 256.8$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$215.59 | 531 | 39.5%210 W · 321 L | -37.2wins | -0.07per pick | 47cpaid | -29.6%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe42b…7ea9backed Virtus.pro | 21c | 249.99$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$197.49 | 465 | 35.1%163 W · 302 L | +22.9wins | +0.05per pick | 30cpaid | +18.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6d31…07b0backed Team Falcons | 17c | 230.17$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39 | 252 | 55.2%139 W · 113 L | +1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x16ce…eba1backed Team Falcons | 11c | 230$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.24 | 613 | 2.1%13 W · 600 L | -23.4wins | -0.04per pick | 6cpaid | -76.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4499…d102backed Team Falcons | 79c | 203.27$161 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$160.59 | 21 | 47.6%10 W · 11 L | -2.5wins | -0.12per pick | 60cpaid | -18.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6fd3…3d7abacked Team Falcons | 78c | 199.99$157 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$156.99 | 290 | 47.9%139 W · 151 L | -2.0wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe9f8…6ef8backed Team Falcons | 55c | 181.82$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 20 | 60%12 W · 8 L | +0.9wins | +0.04per pick | 56cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc00f…0f52backed Virtus.pro | 62c | 161.29$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.29 | 15 | 73.3%11 W · 4 L | +3.1wins | +0.21per pick | 52cpaid | +32.4%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xacf6…41fcbacked Virtus.pro | 68c | 146.92$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.92 | 606 | 46.9%284 W · 322 L | +10.5wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf32d…bbbbbacked Team Falcons | 78c | 129.1$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.7 | 610 | 57.9%353 W · 257 L | +2.8wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9d97…f2bebacked Team Falcons | 39c | 128.21$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 48 | 54.2%26 W · 22 L | +2.9wins | +0.06per pick | 48cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x687c…8c91backed Team Falcons | 57c | 125$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71 | 142 | 54.2%77 W · 65 L | +7.2wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc954…642fbacked Team Falcons | 75c | 103.18$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.39 | 161 | 55.3%89 W · 72 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaee7…1e5bbacked Team Falcons | 80c | 100$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 186 | 49.5%92 W · 94 L | +3.7wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3e2d…fb60backed Team Falcons | 31c | 100$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31 | 504 | 44%222 W · 282 L | -7.4wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x10e4…4113backed Team Falcons | 78c | 89.73$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.94 | 28 | 82.1%23 W · 5 L | +3.4wins | +0.12per pick | 70cpaid | +19.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xaaa6…f3b0backed Virtus.pro | 46c | 82.17$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.42 | 16 | 50%8 W · 8 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x13e9…7cd4backed Virtus.pro | 24c | 82.13$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.13 | 90 | 45.6%41 W · 49 L | +3.7wins | +0.04per pick | 41cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3cf3…50d9backed Virtus.pro | 23c | 80.95$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.22 | 79 | 36.7%29 W · 50 L | -7.1wins | -0.09per pick | 46cpaid | -20%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x74a0…1be2backed Team Falcons | 67c | 79.99$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.99 | 27 | 70.4%19 W · 8 L | +2.0wins | +0.07per pick | 63cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb9f6…f506backed Virtus.pro | 22c | 79.73$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.19 | 26 | 46.2%12 W · 14 L | -1.6wins | -0.06per pick | 52cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc29d…3352backed Virtus.pro | 65c | 76.92$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.92 | 24 | 50%12 W · 12 L | -2.2wins | -0.09per pick | 59cpaid | -16.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x727d…1589backed Team Falcons | 30c | 63.59$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.05 | 80 | 37.5%30 W · 50 L | -3.5wins | -0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7373…22eabacked Virtus.pro | 21c | 59.8$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.24 | 23 | 26.1%6 W · 17 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6d58…8accbacked Team Falcons | 76c | 50$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38 | 128 | 62.5%80 W · 48 L | -4.7wins | -0.04per pick | 66cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xec69…cbe5backed Team Falcons | 79c | 45.42$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.88 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe1e0…9c9fbacked Team Falcons | 79c | 41.25$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.59 | 22 | 45.5%10 W · 12 L | -3.8wins | -0.17per pick | 63cpaid | -30%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xd0b0…ad2cbacked Virtus.pro | 40c | 40$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24 | 210 | 62.4%131 W · 79 L | +5.3wins | +0.03per pick | 60cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc49b…70c0backed Team Falcons | 52c | 40$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.8 | 630 | 32.5%205 W · 425 L | +1.4wins | 0.00per pick | 32cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcf0a…320abacked Virtus.pro | 48c | 40$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.8 | 920 | 56.4%519 W · 401 L | +78.3wins | +0.09per pick | 48cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x425f…0f7abacked Team Falcons | 78c | 25.64$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 181 | 54.7%99 W · 82 L | -5.0wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Dota2 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Dota 2: Team Falcons vs Virtus.pro - Game 2 Winnerthis page
- Dota 2: Team Falcons vs Virtus.pro (BO3)Team Falcons won
- Dota 2: Team Falcons vs Virtus.pro - Game 1 WinnerTeam Falcons won
- Games Total: O/U 2.5Over won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.