Asian League · resolved market
Will Shōnan Bellmāre win on 2025-12-06?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xe632e39748310a0107e8c8362103a1ed638263ca996c1ab63d87d4f86a55365c
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Asian Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $29,937
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $29,568
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $29,937 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a prediction-market account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 20 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Asian League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Asian League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xc3c3…eec8backed No | 36c | 20,208$7,260 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12,947.97 | 133 | 46.6%62 W · 71 L | +3.1wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe90b…5da2backed Yes | 64c | 15,400$9,856 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$9,856.15 | 45 | 33.3%15 W · 30 L | -5.2wins | -0.12per pick | 45cpaid | -39.9%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Yes | 46c | 1,642$762 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$762.26 | 6,028 | 46.1%2,778 W · 3,250 L | +50.9wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8111…38f0backed Yes | 60c | 1,430$858 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$858 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.60per pick | 60cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked No | 72c | 1,239$897 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$342.05 | 1,254 | 51.4%644 W · 610 L | +9.7wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6036…d2ccbacked Yes | 64c | 650$416 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$416 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | -1.1wins | -0.07per pick | 51cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5942…5641backed Yes | 8c | 508$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.64 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.8wins | +0.20per pick | 30cpaid | +58.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x88de…1091backed Yes | 8c | 500.02$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.95 | 138 | 21%29 W · 109 L | -3.8wins | -0.03per pick | 24cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xedfd…1432backed Yes | 66c | 460.11$304 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$303.67 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -1.2wins | -0.12per pick | 52cpaid | -41.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9dd9…08bdbacked Yes | 9c | 457$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.06 | 238 | 45.8%109 W · 129 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -15.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x587b…2622backed No | 36c | 380$137 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$243.2 | 497 | 67.4%335 W · 162 L | +67.5wins | +0.14per pick | 54cpaid | +35.7%equal weight | 64+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x86db…e44dbacked Yes | 66c | 332.42$221 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$220.57 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.66per pick | 66cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9fc9…fa88backed Yes | 67c | 315$212 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$211.95 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | +46.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf102…1348backed Yes | 7c | 286$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.02 | 74 | 27%20 W · 54 L | +2.5wins | +0.03per pick | 24cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x23fe…9788backed Yes | 47c | 190.61$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.74 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | -0.7wins | -0.05per pick | 59cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xea9e…d3fbbacked Yes | 8c | 150$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 299 | 17.4%52 W · 247 L | -13.0wins | -0.04per pick | 22cpaid | -26.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x397e…3d84backed No | 36c | 125$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80 | 404 | 56.2%227 W · 177 L | +33.9wins | +0.08per pick | 48cpaid | +20%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x6b6b…12e7backed Yes | 10c | 101.19$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0424…95ddbacked Yes | 64c | 48.44$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.10per pick | 65cpaid | +17.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x742f…d673backed Yes | 68c | 40$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.2 | 51 | 41.2%21 W · 30 L | -4.1wins | -0.08per pick | 49cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Asian League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Shōnan Bellmāre win on 2025-12-06?this page
- Will Sanfrecce Hiroshima vs. Shōnan Bellmāre end in a draw?No won
- Will Sanfrecce Hiroshima win on 2025-12-06?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.