Asian League · resolved market
Will Sanfrecce Hiroshima win on 2025-12-06?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xe4d5e63507b263cfd9fc15eba2bf612394cc2dde9f3760f26bfc782dcabcd37c
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Asian Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $112,179
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $117,670
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $112,179 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 51 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Asian League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Asian League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xc3c3…eec8backed Yes | 58c | 80,000$46,700 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33,300 | 125 | 45.6%57 W · 68 L | +2.2wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe90b…5da2backed No | 42c | 60,115$25,157 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25,156.86 | 45 | 33.3%15 W · 30 L | -5.2wins | -0.12per pick | 45cpaid | -39.9%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc16b…8404backed No | 40c | 15,030$6,009 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$6,009 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4133…5e70backed No | 27c | 7,517$2,065 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,065.12 | 1,098 | 43.8%481 W · 617 L | -14.6wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf975…4354backed Yes | 80c | 5,332$4,262 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,070.67 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.20per pick | 80cpaid | +25.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked No | 41c | 4,119$1,694 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,693.55 | 1,254 | 51.4%644 W · 610 L | +9.7wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfc0c…cfc9backed Yes | 61c | 3,134$1,913 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,220.66 | 14 | 57.1%8 W · 6 L | +2.1wins | +0.15per pick | 42cpaid | +20.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed No | 39c | 3,006$1,181 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,181.5 | 5,946 | 46.1%2,743 W · 3,203 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5fa9…a36dbacked Yes | 77c | 1,299$1,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$298.7 | 10 | 70%7 W · 3 L | +1.2wins | +0.12per pick | 58cpaid | +20.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8ddb…420bbacked Yes | 70c | 1,199$839 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$359.6 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -0.9wins | -0.09per pick | 39cpaid | +40%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc7f7…2abfbacked No | 20c | 1,133$227 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$227.35 | 78 | 32.1%25 W · 53 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdfce…b388backed No | 23c | 1,043$240 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$240 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.4wins | +0.07per pick | 33cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x29c0…efaabacked Yes | 77c | 732.02$563 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$169.44 | 623 | 49.1%306 W · 317 L | -6.3wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3a09…f9f7backed Yes | 77c | 546.65$421 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$125.73 | 36 | 50%18 W · 18 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x88de…1091backed No | 20c | 500$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 138 | 21%29 W · 109 L | -3.8wins | -0.03per pick | 24cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9dd9…08bdbacked Yes | 73c | 440$319 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$120.6 | 238 | 45.8%109 W · 129 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -15.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xedfd…1432backed Yes | 78c | 410.26$320 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90.26 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -1.2wins | -0.12per pick | 52cpaid | -41.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2a4e…3309backed Yes | 49c | 408.16$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$208.16 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -0.7wins | -0.07per pick | 41cpaid | -38.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe930…b44dbacked Yes | 63c | 297.89$188 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$110.22 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -23%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6036…d2ccbacked No | 37c | 280$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$103.6 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | -1.1wins | -0.07per pick | 51cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x587b…2622backed No | 55c | 250$137 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$137.25 | 487 | 68%331 W · 156 L | +69.2wins | +0.14per pick | 54cpaid | +37.1%equal weight | 65+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x6878…bec2backed No | 40c | 250$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 12 | 66.7%8 W · 4 L | +2.0wins | +0.17per pick | 50cpaid | +50.1%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x972b…78babacked Yes | 76c | 237$181 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.74 | 531 | 48.8%259 W · 272 L | +2.5wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7681…ac03backed No | 51c | 200$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102 | 88 | 14.8%13 W · 75 L | -3.7wins | -0.04per pick | 19cpaid | -47%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x23fe…9788backed No | 40c | 197.9$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.45 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | -0.7wins | -0.05per pick | 59cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xad18…0b4fbacked Yes | 51c | 197.84$101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96.94 | 38 | 36.8%14 W · 24 L | -3.0wins | -0.08per pick | 45cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8594…7eedbacked Yes | 76c | 150.94$115 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.94 | 40 | 52.5%21 W · 19 L | -2.4wins | -0.06per pick | 58cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xea9e…d3fbbacked No | 23c | 150$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.5 | 299 | 17.4%52 W · 247 L | -13.0wins | -0.04per pick | 22cpaid | -26.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe60a…6a47backed Yes | 79c | 142$112 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.82 | 236 | 33.5%79 W · 157 L | -6.4wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -17.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4781…336dbacked Yes | 80c | 135$108 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27 | 37 | 70.3%26 W · 11 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 71cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x397e…3d84backed No | 55c | 125$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.5 | 396 | 55.8%221 W · 175 L | +31.2wins | +0.08per pick | 48cpaid | +18.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1d94…9100backed No | 23c | 110.25$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.89 | 794 | 35.1%279 W · 515 L | +13.2wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1f3f…959bbacked Yes | 47c | 106.38$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.38 | 125 | 35.2%44 W · 81 L | +3.2wins | +0.03per pick | 33cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4c9b…e74abacked No | 21c | 95.24$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 103 | 44.7%46 W · 57 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf102…1348backed No | 21c | 95$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.95 | 70 | 28.6%20 W · 50 L | +2.9wins | +0.04per pick | 24cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1c83…6f40backed Yes | 63c | 84.59$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.11 | 112 | 41.1%46 W · 66 L | -1.5wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0362…449ebacked Yes | 78c | 77.22$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.22 | 237 | 55.3%131 W · 106 L | +4.8wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0424…95ddbacked Yes | 80c | 62.5$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.5 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.10per pick | 65cpaid | +17.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2f61…9131backed No | 39c | 62.13$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.23 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.39per pick | 39cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x042e…f947backed No | 23c | 50$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.5 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.34per pick | 34cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2382…4628backed No | 25c | 50$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.5 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -1.0wins | -0.11per pick | 44cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x77cc…fdccbacked Yes | 79c | 44.4$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.52 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.21per pick | 79cpaid | +27.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x499e…c968backed No | 31c | 37.71$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.69 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.6wins | -0.40per pick | 40cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7d92…5f8ebacked Yes | 80c | 37.66$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.66 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.20per pick | 80cpaid | +25.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x58c8…0300backed Yes | 49c | 36.17$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.3 | 91 | 41.8%38 W · 53 L | -4.4wins | -0.05per pick | 47cpaid | -28.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa870…2cd1backed Yes | 76c | 34.83$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.36 | 67 | 86.6%58 W · 9 L | +6.7wins | +0.10per pick | 77cpaid | +12.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x742f…d673backed Yes | 59c | 30$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.21 | 51 | 41.2%21 W · 30 L | -4.1wins | -0.08per pick | 49cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7738…8923backed Yes | 79c | 26.58$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.58 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -1.9wins | -0.23per pick | 61cpaid | -45.4%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6f19…b9ffbacked Yes | 74c | 25.95$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.77 | 20 | 60%12 W · 8 L | +3.2wins | +0.16per pick | 44cpaid | +26.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xfd99…0b60backed Yes | 79c | 25.32$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.32 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.21per pick | 79cpaid | +26.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6d1e…327abacked Yes | 63c | 23.81$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.81 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.04per pick | 63cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Asian League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Sanfrecce Hiroshima win on 2025-12-06?this page
- Will Sanfrecce Hiroshima vs. Shōnan Bellmāre end in a draw?No won
- Will Shōnan Bellmāre win on 2025-12-06?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.