Other European Leagues · resolved market
FC Alverca vs. Sporting CP: O/U 4.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xe6459614651d1c3e2d3681d409ec640b74f9f5a0f58b90659f1ae8c924536834
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Other European Leaguesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $7,349
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $7,349 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 17 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Other European Leagues is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Other European Leagues | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Over | 7c | 1,407$103 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,303.12 | 5,604 | 42%2,356 W · 3,248 L | +75.1wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 61c | 1,000$607 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$606.77 | 7,889 | 45.4%3,579 W · 4,310 L | +11.2wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xffea…5f0abacked Over | 76c | 584.68$442 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$142.82 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -1.0wins | -0.13per pick | 51cpaid | -43.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xde9c…45aebacked Over | 24c | 438.04$105 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$332.91 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.26per pick | 41cpaid | +83.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd1c1…732fbacked Under | 76c | 438.04$333 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$332.91 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.76per pick | 76cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7e…cd92backed Under | 79c | 404.86$319 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$319.47 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.07per pick | 76cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x797e…fc29backed Over | 16c | 312.5$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$262.5 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +1.7wins | +0.29per pick | 21cpaid | +287.4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x20ad…a7c6backed Over | 18c | 170.68$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$140.72 | 223 | 33.2%74 W · 149 L | -1.5wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3f02…92e0backed Over | 24c | 170.4$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$129.5 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.09per pick | 58cpaid | +82.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x21d5…d147backed Under | 76c | 170.4$130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$129.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.76per pick | 76cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6c67…a813backed Under | 80c | 150.66$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120 | 17 | 70.6%12 W · 5 L | -1.0wins | -0.06per pick | 77cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1f62…76f6backed Over | 20c | 125.32$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100.23 | 1,467 | 48%704 W · 763 L | +3.7wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0b0f…50bebacked Under | 80c | 125$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.16per pick | 66cpaid | -28.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Over | 15c | 73.19$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.85 | 985 | 52.3%515 W · 470 L | +4.6wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc9d2…090fbacked Over | 77c | 38.78$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.02 | 15 | 66.7%10 W · 5 L | +2.1wins | +0.14per pick | 53cpaid | +19.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x04b4…8d0bbacked Under | 38c | 37.61$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.35 | 20 | 60%12 W · 8 L | +1.6wins | +0.08per pick | 52cpaid | +10.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa658…f93ebacked Under | 80c | 25.05$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 17 | 70.6%12 W · 5 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 71cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Other European Leagues and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- FC Alverca vs. Sporting CP: O/U 4.5this page
- FC Alverca vs. Sporting CP: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
- FC Alverca vs. Sporting CP: O/U 1.5Over won
- FC Alverca vs. Sporting CP: O/U 2.5Over won
- FC Alverca vs. Sporting CP: O/U 3.5Over won
- Spread: Sporting CP (-1.5)Sporting CP won
- Spread: Sporting CP (-2.5)Sporting CP won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.