Other European Leagues · resolved market
Spread: Sporting CP (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xc4a72600ab2411f08cb5de641e10d30de4e92bedd735212d59fd83295066c49d
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Sporting CPof Sporting CP, FC Alverca
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Other European Leaguesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $8,677
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $8,677 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 32 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Other European Leagues is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Other European Leagues | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x9fad…5a9fbacked Sporting CP | 50c | 3,101$1,550 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,550.34 | 376 | 41.5%156 W · 220 L | -17.5wins | -0.05per pick | 46cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x351e…de8abacked FC Alverca | 50c | 1,423$712 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$711.5 | 35 | 60%21 W · 14 L | +3.6wins | +0.10per pick | 50cpaid | +19.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x287a…7976backed FC Alverca | 50c | 1,417$708 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$708.33 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed FC Alverca | 46c | 884.27$403 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$403.45 | 7,889 | 45.4%3,579 W · 4,310 L | +11.2wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2412…b5a1backed Sporting CP | 50c | 616.4$309 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$307.71 | 32 | 65.6%21 W · 11 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac5…4b6ebacked FC Alverca | 45c | 424.03$191 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$190.84 | 435 | 46.7%203 W · 232 L | -3.0wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbff4…b609backed Sporting CP | 55c | 342.67$188 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$154.68 | 56 | 64.3%36 W · 20 L | +8.0wins | +0.14per pick | 50cpaid | +19%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x4d62…5409backed Sporting CP | 56c | 268.71$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$118.71 | 53 | 62.3%33 W · 20 L | -2.6wins | -0.05per pick | 67cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfbb5…2b6abacked Sporting CP | 56c | 216.59$121 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$95.3 | 227 | 27.8%63 W · 164 L | +2.3wins | +0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6882…6f08backed Sporting CP | 55c | 184.22$101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83.38 | 139 | 59%82 W · 57 L | -9.8wins | -0.07per pick | 66cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf69c…44dbbacked Sporting CP | 68c | 172.7$117 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.54 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcc00…79f8backed FC Alverca | 50c | 140$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.8wins | -0.44per pick | 44cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7cae…bf8abacked FC Alverca | 44c | 120$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.8 | 26 | 53.8%14 W · 12 L | -0.8wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x77bc…b91bbacked FC Alverca | 23c | 116.47$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.21 | 2,309 | 42.8%988 W · 1,321 L | -41.2wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x20ad…a7c6backed FC Alverca | 47c | 100.01$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.81 | 223 | 33.2%74 W · 149 L | -1.5wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbc15…3a2ebacked FC Alverca | 50c | 100$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.6wins | +0.15per pick | 36cpaid | +94.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x63c5…1ecbbacked Sporting CP | 52c | 100$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48 | 187 | 49.7%93 W · 94 L | +2.6wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x34fa…f491backed FC Alverca | 47c | 100$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47 | 96 | 44.8%43 W · 53 L | -3.5wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd714…8240backed Sporting CP | 51c | 78.55$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.55 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.12per pick | 55cpaid | +21.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x31ce…88cdbacked FC Alverca | 44c | 75$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33 | 28 | 53.6%15 W · 13 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x84f7…ade1backed FC Alverca | 48c | 54$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.92 | 174 | 47.7%83 W · 91 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1f62…76f6backed FC Alverca | 49c | 49.02$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.02 | 1,467 | 48%704 W · 763 L | +3.7wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0a30…b094backed Sporting CP | 51c | 49.02$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.02 | 70 | 51.4%36 W · 34 L | +5.4wins | +0.08per pick | 44cpaid | +15.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf059…6dd9backed FC Alverca | 50c | 48$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 64 | 46.9%30 W · 34 L | -1.8wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed FC Alverca | 45c | 46.37$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.87 | 2,543 | 52.4%1,333 W · 1,210 L | +18.3wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5696…b3aabacked FC Alverca | 48c | 41$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.68 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.48per pick | 48cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x50e9…5efebacked Sporting CP | 54c | 35$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.1 | 60 | 51.7%31 W · 29 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x94d4…a896backed Sporting CP | 69c | 26.75$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.42 | 27 | 63%17 W · 10 L | +0.9wins | +0.03per pick | 60cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7398…f4b6backed FC Alverca | 44c | 25.71$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.31 | 89 | 57.3%51 W · 38 L | +3.9wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbc…57b2backed Sporting CP | 55c | 25.45$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.45 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.45per pick | 55cpaid | +81.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd454…b47fbacked FC Alverca | 50c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 16 | 37.5%6 W · 10 L | -1.5wins | -0.09per pick | 47cpaid | -22.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3703…7639backed Sporting CP | 66c | 17$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.78 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.29per pick | 71cpaid | +41.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Other European Leagues and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Sporting CP (-1.5)this page
- FC Alverca vs. Sporting CP: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
- FC Alverca vs. Sporting CP: O/U 1.5Over won
- FC Alverca vs. Sporting CP: O/U 2.5Over won
- FC Alverca vs. Sporting CP: O/U 3.5Over won
- FC Alverca vs. Sporting CP: O/U 4.5Over won
- Spread: Sporting CP (-2.5)Sporting CP won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.