Ligue 1 · resolved market
Will OGC Nice win on 2025-08-16?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xe64e73479ccc4ffa37316cbd959c3bb2b0580e9b4d2d198a57ceff577cd1f090
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Ligue 1every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $9,764
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $12,699
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $9,764 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 22 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Ligue 1 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Ligue 1 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x0a26…1851backed No | 57c | 2,468$1,400 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,067.6 | 77 | 41.6%32 W · 45 L | -4.5wins | -0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4e94…6243backed Yes | 37c | 1,051$391 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$390.52 | 60 | 45%27 W · 33 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -19.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Yes | 43c | 970.4$417 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$417.27 | 190 | 55.8%106 W · 84 L | +2.6wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x74dc…cc04backed Yes | 49c | 648$318 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$317.52 | 19 | 63.2%12 W · 7 L | -0.7wins | -0.04per pick | 67cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5d40…f95abacked Yes | 47c | 605.38$285 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$284.53 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -2.3wins | -0.33per pick | 47cpaid | -76.6%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x27a9…8781backed Yes | 51c | 519.69$265 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$265.04 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x64b5…7543backed No | 53c | 519.15$275 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$244 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.12per pick | 37cpaid | -52.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbaa8…645bbacked No | 51c | 425.04$217 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$208.27 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -51%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked No | 65c | 229.31$149 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80.01 | 1,415 | 40.8%577 W · 838 L | +13.5wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdfcf…a26ebacked No | 54c | 214.81$116 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$98.81 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.08per pick | 48cpaid | -32.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8b7e…6a9fbacked Yes | 47c | 212.77$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 42 | 47.6%20 W · 22 L | -0.9wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdc4b…5a92backed Yes | 47c | 212.77$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 50 | 42%21 W · 29 L | -4.6wins | -0.09per pick | 51cpaid | -22.7%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6c5a…4b33backed Yes | 44c | 113.64$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.44per pick | 44cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa9d3…9d4bbacked No | 53c | 112$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.64 | 232 | 60.8%141 W · 91 L | +15.1wins | +0.07per pick | 54cpaid | +13.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ef…0b77backed No | 57c | 108.76$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.77 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.04per pick | 64cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed No | 49c | 90$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.9 | 188 | 47.9%90 W · 98 L | +4.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +15%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0d0a…0809backed No | 57c | 87.72$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.72 | 23 | 26.1%6 W · 17 L | -2.7wins | -0.12per pick | 38cpaid | -45.6%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8059…c043backed Yes | 47c | 85.11$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 27 | 37%10 W · 17 L | -4.3wins | -0.16per pick | 53cpaid | -34.5%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xff37…1486backed Yes | 44c | 70$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.6 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.44per pick | 44cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x742f…d673backed Yes | 37c | 50$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.5 | 78 | 44.9%35 W · 43 L | -2.5wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf566…bbb9backed No | 53c | 30.64$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.4 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +2.4wins | +0.29per pick | 46cpaid | +86.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4e0a…e4e6backed No | 53c | 28$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.16 | 208 | 60.6%126 W · 82 L | +12.4wins | +0.06per pick | 55cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Ligue 1 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will OGC Nice win on 2025-08-16?this page
- Will OGC Nice vs. Toulouse FC end in a draw?No won
- Will Toulouse FC win on 2025-08-16?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.