Ligue 1 · resolved market
Will Toulouse FC win on 2025-08-16?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x0efbecdf6aad1b6044be2b1c4bd135ace32c3b75a670ca72fd88988be0585b08
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Ligue 1every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $6,956
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $7,257
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $6,956 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 18 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Ligue 1 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Ligue 1 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4e94…6243backed Yes | 65c | 4,193$2,738 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,455.4 | 60 | 45%27 W · 33 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -19.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc6fe…b77fbacked No | 34c | 4,000$1,360 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,360 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | -0.9wins | -0.07per pick | 53cpaid | -31.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked No | 36c | 505.93$184 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$183.67 | 1,415 | 40.8%577 W · 838 L | +13.5wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6c82…6150backed No | 73c | 499.99$365 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$364.99 | 41 | 53.7%22 W · 19 L | -1.3wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7432…794bbacked Yes | 26c | 379.63$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$279.63 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +89.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8b7e…6a9fbacked Yes | 27c | 370.37$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$270.37 | 42 | 47.6%20 W · 22 L | -0.9wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x742f…d673backed Yes | 51c | 244$123 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$120.57 | 78 | 44.9%35 W · 43 L | -2.5wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa9d3…9d4bbacked No | 73c | 127.33$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92.95 | 232 | 60.8%141 W · 91 L | +15.1wins | +0.07per pick | 54cpaid | +13.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5543…4195backed Yes | 27c | 111.11$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.11 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +1.0wins | +0.14per pick | 28cpaid | +46.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x51fd…4272backed Yes | 22c | 100$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78 | 44 | 38.6%17 W · 27 L | +4.5wins | +0.10per pick | 28cpaid | +20.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0781…c4ffbacked No | 78c | 100$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78 | 15 | 33.3%5 W · 10 L | -1.0wins | -0.07per pick | 40cpaid | -37.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf33f…085cbacked Yes | 23c | 100$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 24cpaid | -12%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe83c…5e8fbacked No | 73c | 98.13$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.74 | 28 | 64.3%18 W · 10 L | +1.9wins | +0.07per pick | 58cpaid | +12.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed No | 77c | 90$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.3 | 188 | 47.9%90 W · 98 L | +4.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +15%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ee4…b575backed Yes | 27c | 74.33$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.33 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | +1.9wins | +0.13per pick | 30cpaid | +39.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd269…8055backed Yes | 27c | 53.44$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.01 | 37 | 32.4%12 W · 25 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -27.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4e0a…e4e6backed No | 73c | 50$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.5 | 208 | 60.6%126 W · 82 L | +12.4wins | +0.06per pick | 55cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x55da…839abacked No | 76c | 35$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.6 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.28per pick | 78cpaid | -37.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Ligue 1 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Toulouse FC win on 2025-08-16?this page
- Will OGC Nice vs. Toulouse FC end in a draw?No won
- Will OGC Nice win on 2025-08-16?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.