Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 26°C on June 10?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xe657f66a94383a5199d96b4c379b0359c6bf7750d3f3b86b45eb4c1cfbc61083
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $5,521
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $5,730
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $5,521 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 44 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed No | 37c | 704.29$261 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$443.43 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x6868…5198backed Yes | 51c | 409.13$210 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$210.38 | 1,401 | 27.3%383 W · 1,018 L | +69.5wins | +0.05per pick | 22cpaid | +18.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe25c…7908backed Yes | 58c | 353.62$204 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$203.79 | 228 | 57.5%131 W · 97 L | +6.6wins | +0.03per pick | 55cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 10c | 237.05$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.77 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb311…eadfbacked Yes | 75c | 170$128 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$127.5 | 35 | 45.7%16 W · 19 L | -2.5wins | -0.07per pick | 53cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3311…d659backed Yes | 67c | 149.15$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 195 | 51.8%101 W · 94 L | -8.7wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -12%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9196…d934backed Yes | 73c | 141.13$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$103.37 | 644 | 60.6%390 W · 254 L | +92.2wins | +0.14per pick | 46cpaid | +36.4%equal weight | 65+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x7e80…631bbacked No | 41c | 108.8$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.51 | 1,991 | 52.3%1,042 W · 949 L | -76.1wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb912…7e38backed Yes | 37c | 105.12$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.26 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | -1.2wins | -0.07per pick | 51cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1941…deeabacked Yes | 77c | 102.35$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.55 | 1,072 | 36.6%392 W · 680 L | +25.9wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2753…e28abacked Yes | 78c | 100$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78 | 420 | 61.2%257 W · 163 L | +19.7wins | +0.05per pick | 57cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0888…e6e3backed No | 46c | 100$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54 | 54 | 50%27 W · 27 L | +3.9wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd6cd…eaecbacked Yes | 69c | 93$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.09 | 146 | 60.3%88 W · 58 L | +3.6wins | +0.02per pick | 58cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x42b7…abffbacked Yes | 78c | 92.79$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.54 | 306 | 65%199 W · 107 L | +14.5wins | +0.05per pick | 60cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6e4f…b7d3backed Yes | 78c | 89.44$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.86 | 31 | 41.9%13 W · 18 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x85d2…7479backed Yes | 77c | 80$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.6 | 532 | 58.6%312 W · 220 L | +45.1wins | +0.08per pick | 50cpaid | +23.4%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xd7f3…52d8backed No | 65c | 73$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.61 | 190 | 71.6%136 W · 54 L | +11.9wins | +0.06per pick | 65cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6ff6…e4fbbacked No | 53c | 66.5$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.03 | 653 | 53.4%349 W · 304 L | +6.0wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb0a5…0a36backed No | 66c | 63.15$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.71 | 2,086 | 51.8%1,080 W · 1,006 L | -45.0wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfea5…ee06backed Yes | 33c | 60.61$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 270 | 29.3%79 W · 191 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcfff…673dbacked No | 38c | 60$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.5 | 3,057 | 61.6%1,883 W · 1,174 L | -35.2wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x77f0…2b1fbacked No | 75c | 57$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.25 | 3,028 | 49.8%1,509 W · 1,519 L | +16.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked No | 41c | 55.5$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.52 | 3,474 | 33.9%1,177 W · 2,297 L | -175.6wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes | 37c | 55$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.2 | 3,939 | 35.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L | +35.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8d88…1e28backed No | 60c | 53.64$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.72 | 769 | 24.3%187 W · 582 L | -16.3wins | -0.02per pick | 26cpaid | -40.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 69c | 52.53$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.01 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x658b…84bfbacked Yes | 65c | 50.56$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.86 | 204 | 45.1%92 W · 112 L | +14.8wins | +0.07per pick | 38cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x164c…3e39backed Yes | 54c | 50$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.1 | 1,034 | 51.3%530 W · 504 L | +69.5wins | +0.07per pick | 45cpaid | +14%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x406b…dc4ebacked Yes | 34c | 49.99$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 15 | 80%12 W · 3 L | +2.4wins | +0.16per pick | 64cpaid | +18.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked Yes | 26c | 49.99$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.95 | 4,514 | 52.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L | +47.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb25e…a93bbacked Yes | 35c | 47.33$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.51 | 234 | 36.3%85 W · 149 L | +5.3wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x86d8…52d5backed No | 25c | 44.06$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.05 | 82 | 29.3%24 W · 58 L | +3.2wins | +0.04per pick | 25cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdca4…e93dbacked Yes | 45c | 39.86$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 2,501 | 45.5%1,138 W · 1,363 L | +26.8wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 73c | 39$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.68 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe1aa…7429backed Yes | 33c | 39$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.87 | 94 | 26.6%25 W · 69 L | -1.5wins | -0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8699…f6bebacked Yes | 72c | 34$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.32 | 94 | 40.4%38 W · 56 L | +12.4wins | +0.13per pick | 27cpaid | +51.4%equal weight | 62+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xf3d8…8f53backed No | 65c | 30.76$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.76 | 51 | 72.5%37 W · 14 L | +2.3wins | +0.04per pick | 68cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x35e6…7a4dbacked No | 73c | 30.05$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.08 | 1,699 | 60.6%1,029 W · 670 L | -24.7wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1798…1ce9backed No | 67c | 29.85$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.85 | 2,428 | 44.9%1,091 W · 1,337 L | -31.5wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8512…f69fbacked No | 69c | 27.36$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.41 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +0.5wins | +0.06per pick | 61cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0a0c…a853backed No | 67c | 22.52$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.52 | 2,249 | 34.2%769 W · 1,480 L | +11.6wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8f5d…3384backed No | 74c | 20.28$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.32 | 282 | 70.2%198 W · 84 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 70cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x01a9…75ddbacked No | 67c | 17.77$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.87 | 241 | 41.9%101 W · 140 L | -9.1wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb59e…8baebacked Yes | 80c | 13$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.4 | 13 | 61.5%8 W · 5 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 26°C on June 10?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 25°C on June 10?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 27°C on June 10?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 28°C on June 10?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 29°C on June 10?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.