NHL · resolved market
AHL: Charlotte Checkers vs. Toronto Marlies
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xe6907b7493e5ce041169ccc5d07d5e5fb73d51a91e4b26f06031e9bb99542529
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Charlotte Checkersof Charlotte Checkers, Toronto Marlies
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NHLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $4,309
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $4,249
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $4,309 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 33 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NHL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NHL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x56d4…9c57backed Charlotte Checkers | 55c | 3,913$2,163 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,749.44 | 231 | 55%127 W · 104 L | +9.4wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x30ef…70dfbacked Toronto Marlies | 47c | 774.76$364 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$364.04 | 533 | 37.5%200 W · 333 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa578…6702backed Toronto Marlies | 45c | 429.35$193 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$193.21 | 538 | 49.4%266 W · 272 L | +10.5wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x06e1…8b57backed Toronto Marlies | 43c | 280.76$121 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120.72 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +0.6wins | +0.06per pick | 54cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9d41…f237backed Toronto Marlies | 43c | 224.6$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.58 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.4wins | -0.28per pick | 48cpaid | -66.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2f2b…0f9abacked Toronto Marlies | 43c | 209.17$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.94 | 339 | 50.1%170 W · 169 L | -1.8wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xae60…1f06backed Toronto Marlies | 43c | 208.88$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.82 | 66 | 45.5%30 W · 36 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7d84…a7bdbacked Toronto Marlies | 47c | 196.11$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92.17 | 43 | 55.8%24 W · 19 L | +1.8wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8a3d…316cbacked Toronto Marlies | 44c | 131.78$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.98 | 337 | 45.7%154 W · 183 L | -6.7wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd17a…0373backed Toronto Marlies | 43c | 125.55$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.99 | 98 | 56.1%55 W · 43 L | +7.2wins | +0.07per pick | 49cpaid | +17.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4488…579cbacked Toronto Marlies | 46c | 123.74$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.82 | 347 | 52.4%182 W · 165 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd37a…2358backed Toronto Marlies | 43c | 103.6$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.12 | 865 | 49.1%425 W · 440 L | -4.6wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc1fd…8fe6backed Toronto Marlies | 46c | 103.07$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.41 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa8ab…c40ebacked Toronto Marlies | 46c | 101.09$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.5 | 22 | 59.1%13 W · 9 L | +2.0wins | +0.09per pick | 50cpaid | +28.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8b4e…417cbacked Toronto Marlies | 44c | 98.84$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.49 | 27 | 40.7%11 W · 16 L | -1.0wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -11%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x192c…b6cdbacked Charlotte Checkers | 55c | 98.78$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.45 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.48per pick | 53cpaid | +90.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Toronto Marlies | 45c | 91.52$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.18 | 1,028 | 53.2%547 W · 481 L | +21.4wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3865…fcbebacked Toronto Marlies | 43c | 87.37$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.57 | 110 | 50.9%56 W · 54 L | -1.8wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdd12…9debbacked Charlotte Checkers | 58c | 83.81$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.62 | 37 | 56.8%21 W · 16 L | +2.5wins | +0.07per pick | 50cpaid | +14.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4b6c…9a83backed Toronto Marlies | 43c | 83.67$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.98 | 32 | 37.5%12 W · 20 L | -4.1wins | -0.13per pick | 50cpaid | -23%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x839f…5f1fbacked Charlotte Checkers | 56c | 51.24$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.55 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -1.3wins | -0.16per pick | 54cpaid | -30.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5bda…17a8backed Toronto Marlies | 43c | 50$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.5 | 211 | 55.5%117 W · 94 L | +7.6wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +9.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x00f7…4476backed Toronto Marlies | 44c | 50$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 25 | 40%10 W · 15 L | -2.6wins | -0.10per pick | 50cpaid | -16.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc916…5403backed Toronto Marlies | 43c | 48.95$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.11 | 139 | 54%75 W · 64 L | +4.6wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x008d…b839backed Charlotte Checkers | 37c | 45.7$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.64 | 450 | 69.3%312 W · 138 L | +51.6wins | +0.11per pick | 58cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x3a0e…b0babacked Toronto Marlies | 45c | 42.98$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.34 | 98 | 46.9%46 W · 52 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x20a8…d960backed Toronto Marlies | 57c | 36.85$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.04 | 366 | 62%227 W · 139 L | +39.1wins | +0.11per pick | 51cpaid | +19.2%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x6caa…4fb3backed Toronto Marlies | 44c | 32.95$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.5 | 31 | 51.6%16 W · 15 L | +0.9wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1a6c…e9a0backed Toronto Marlies | 44c | 32.95$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.5 | 26 | 61.5%16 W · 10 L | +2.9wins | +0.11per pick | 51cpaid | +20.9%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8027…cf81backed Toronto Marlies | 45c | 32.24$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.51 | 85 | 55.3%47 W · 38 L | +4.6wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +13.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xef2e…8d89backed Toronto Marlies | 45c | 32.23$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.51 | 196 | 51.5%101 W · 95 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1dd2…9e07backed Toronto Marlies | 43c | 32.01$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.76 | 145 | 51%74 W · 71 L | +7.4wins | +0.05per pick | 46cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xae8e…08f9backed Toronto Marlies | 46c | 29.03$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.35 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -1.5wins | -0.14per pick | 50cpaid | -28.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NHL and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.