NFL · resolved market
Will the Eagles commit a roughing the passer penalty in Super Bowl LIX?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xe69c7d8a0961c2eb412924e3c2f1ac29d33359ba4a0f84f642807ec8486e79ec
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NFLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $5,467
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $5,398
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $5,467 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 46 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NFL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NFL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xf84b…3e6cbacked No | 70c | 1,598$1,116 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$482.11 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | -1.2wins | -0.10per pick | 35cpaid | -60.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe0db…f44ebacked No | 73c | 1,395$1,023 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$372.3 | 152 | 52.6%80 W · 72 L | +4.2wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +17.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd398…46d7backed No | 68c | 672.5$457 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$215.2 | 256 | 43.8%112 W · 144 L | +14.6wins | +0.06per pick | 38cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4151…d511backed Yes | 32c | 622.5$199 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$199.2 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.32per pick | 32cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xadeb…1816backed Yes | 32c | 619.05$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 10 | 0%0 W · 10 L | -1.7wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0b9c…7e44backed No | 70c | 571.43$401 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$170.3 | 40 | 57.5%23 W · 17 L | +3.3wins | +0.08per pick | 49cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x18af…f909backed Yes | 25c | 400$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.8wins | +0.15per pick | 25cpaid | +69.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5f41…83f5backed Yes | 26c | 356.84$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.51 | 153 | 32%49 W · 104 L | -8.6wins | -0.06per pick | 38cpaid | -38.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa842…08e5backed Yes | 35c | 285.71$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -32.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x79cb…331ebacked Yes | 28c | 240$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.7 | 196 | 9.2%18 W · 178 L | -4.5wins | -0.02per pick | 11cpaid | -67.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3518…4383backed Yes | 30c | 204.33$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.3 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.0wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa8c7…de48backed Yes | 30c | 200$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -19%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe6a3…fc02backed Yes | 28c | 183.68$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.43 | 82 | 34.1%28 W · 54 L | -8.3wins | -0.10per pick | 44cpaid | -37.2%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x8429…4d32backed Yes | 30c | 160.53$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.16 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.30per pick | 30cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb299…4a62backed Yes | 29c | 150$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44 | 375 | 56.3%211 W · 164 L | +7.6wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x78fa…103abacked Yes | 30c | 150$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 30 | 16.7%5 W · 25 L | -4.5wins | -0.15per pick | 32cpaid | -52.6%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x0180…9d86backed Yes | 30c | 140$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.5wins | -0.07per pick | 36cpaid | -49.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa82b…6214backed No | 71c | 107$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.03 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.25per pick | 75cpaid | +33.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1551…f415backed Yes | 29c | 107$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.03 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.26per pick | 60cpaid | -55.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc712…fdb9backed Yes | 26c | 97$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.22 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.3wins | -0.33per pick | 33cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x81a0…6feebacked Yes | 30c | 83.33$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 18 | 16.7%3 W · 15 L | -2.5wins | -0.14per pick | 31cpaid | -49.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x844b…0a51backed Yes | 31c | 80.65$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 21 | 23.8%5 W · 16 L | -2.6wins | -0.12per pick | 36cpaid | -32.5%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3975…626abacked No | 71c | 80$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.4 | 91 | 81.3%74 W · 17 L | +15.9wins | +0.17per pick | 64cpaid | +26%equal weight | 65+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x887a…c778backed No | 71c | 71$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.59 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.11per pick | 62cpaid | -29.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x177e…bc77backed Yes | 29c | 71$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.59 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.29per pick | 29cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x28f0…5204backed Yes | 29c | 68.74$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.10per pick | 40cpaid | -2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7702…29eebacked Yes | 30c | 66.67$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.9wins | -0.15per pick | 31cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0eb9…2daebacked Yes | 29c | 64$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.56 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | +36.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9434…159abacked No | 71c | 64$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.56 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.25per pick | 75cpaid | +33.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6336…c1a2backed No | 74c | 63$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.38 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.25per pick | 75cpaid | +33.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd149…4156backed Yes | 26c | 63$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.38 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4bb4…44ebbacked No | 74c | 54$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.04 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.3wins | +0.43per pick | 57cpaid | +82%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf5f2…dcd8backed Yes | 26c | 54$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.04 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed No | 73c | 50$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.5 | 268 | 30.6%82 W · 186 L | -29.2wins | -0.11per pick | 41cpaid | -43.3%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x6c72…1e3abacked Yes | 30c | 50$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.2 | 39 | 46.2%18 W · 21 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x98b4…5d76backed Yes | 27c | 50$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.5 | 254 | 53.9%137 W · 117 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe466…7083backed Yes | 30c | 50$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 25 | 60%15 W · 10 L | +1.6wins | +0.06per pick | 54cpaid | +13%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x65c4…791ebacked No | 74c | 49$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.74 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.26per pick | 74cpaid | +35.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x830a…5cadbacked No | 74c | 49$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.74 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.08per pick | 67cpaid | +17.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9225…a33fbacked Yes | 26c | 42$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.92 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.13per pick | 37cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb36e…ca8dbacked Yes | 29c | 42$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.18 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6fb1…745abacked No | 71c | 42$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.18 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.29per pick | 71cpaid | +40.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5d4c…3e26backed No | 74c | 41$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.66 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.26per pick | 74cpaid | +35.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x377b…84b5backed Yes | 26c | 41$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.66 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.15per pick | 48cpaid | -55.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x12d9…d1dabacked No | 74c | 41$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.66 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -32.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc26b…a830backed Yes | 35c | 31.34$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.97 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -1.6wins | -0.22per pick | 37cpaid | -65.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NFL and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the Eagles commit a roughing the passer penalty in Super Bowl LIX?this page
- WIll there be a penalty for exessive celebration called in Super Bowl LIX?No won
- Which team will be penalized for more yards?Chiefs won
- Which team will commit more penalties in Super Bowl LIX?Eagles won
- Will the Chiefs commit a roughing the passer penalty in Super Bowl LIX?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.